Road to the Breeders’ Cup: Three Heating Up, Three Cooling Down

Honor Code, above winning the Met Mile, is training well for his Hall of Fame trainer, SHug McGaughey, in preparation for the 2015 Breeders' Cup Classic. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
A capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Road to the Breeders’ Cup World Championships and three horses whose Breeders’ Cup chances are not quite as strong as they were a week ago.  
Heating Up

1. Breeders’ Cup Mile Field
Impassable

Eclipse Sportswire

The first thing that jumped out at me when I looked through the long list of horses pre-entered in the Breeders’ Cup was the depth of the group lining up for the Breeders’ Cup Mile. Many U.S. racing fans are focused on the big dirt races, specifically the Classic and the Juvenile, but the Mile on the grass is one of my favorite races and this year looks to be shaping up as another stellar edition. I was floored by the depth of the European contingent: Bawina, Esoterique, Impassable, Karakontie, Make Believe, Mondialiste, Time Test and War Envoy. Mondialiste has a race in the U.S. this year, winning the Woodbine Mile Stakes in his most recent start from way off the pace and I think he’ll be a square price. France-based Carlos Lafforn-Parias entered two fillies from his barn. I much prefer Impassable, a 3-year-old filly headed in the right direction off back-to-back Group 2 wins, over her stablemate Bawina, who might be a bit overmatched. Expect Impassable to be flying late. Karakontie has not been as good this year as he was a year ago when he won this race at 30-to-1 as far as overall body of work, but his last race was sneaky good and I think he’ll run a big one. I really respect horses from the Juddmonte Farms breeding-racing operation, and I think Time Test has a very appealing combination of speed and stamina. His dam (mother), Passage of Time, was a Group 1 winner in France who finished third in the 2007 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf. Time Test has won 3 of 4 starts this year and comes in off a career-best performance with plenty of rest. Esoterique should challenge for favoritism in this race as the class of the European contingent off back-to-back Grade 1 wins in France and England. She is a huge threat here. I’m afraid to dismiss War Envoy from the powerhouse barn of trainer Aidan O’Brien, but I have to admit I much prefer others, including Make Believe. A 3-year-old colt trained by the great Andre Fabre, Make Believe has a tactical advantage over some of the other Europeans in that he has plenty of speed. Coming off a visually stunning win in the Group 1 Prix de la Foret at seven-eighths of a mile, Make Believe is really coming into his own and should be in striking distance at the top of the stretch. The race has produced my two best all-time Breeders’ Cup picks — Karakontie last year and Miesque’s Approval in 2006 at 24.30-to-1. I’ll be looking at Time Test or Make Believe as my top choice, Esoterique is impossible to dismiss and I’ll definitely be very interested to see Karakontie and Impassable when they arrive. 

2. Honor Code  

Eclipse Sportswire

A sage trainer who once assisted Hall of Famer Jonathan Sheppard explained to me the importance of learning how to train a horse to be in peak condition for a specific target race. I might have absorbed a little of that knowledge. In short, it’s not easy to do, and plenty of trainers excel by not looking ahead and taking it one race at a time. But there is an art to having a horse at the absolute apex of his game for a big race and Honor Code looks like Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey’s "David" (We’ll call Orb his Sistine Chapel). Initially, I was confused by his choice of the Kelso Handicap at one mile as Honor Code’s final prep for the 1 ¼-mile Breeders’ Cup Classic, especially when he finished a well-beaten third on a sloppy track. But everything clicked when I saw Honor Code’s workout on Oct. 19 when he drilled a hole in the wind with five-eighths of a mile in :58.32, the fastest of 20 timed workouts at the distance. Keeneland has been kind to horses with speed. Honor Code been at his best rallying from well off the pace. I suspect, but don’t know first-hand, that McGaughey is trying to train a little extra speed into Honor Code. Don’t expect Honor Code to be right off the pace in the Classic but also don’t expect to see him 20 or 25 lengths back. He’ll be closer than usual when he unleashes his powerful closing rally, which is key because Triple Crown winner American Pharoah and Beholder will be difficult to reel in. I think he’s extremely dangerous and very capable of winning in a dramatic finish.

3. European Turf 2-year-olds 
Cymric (near #4)

Eclipse Sportswire 

Like the Mile, I was especially impressed with the group of Europeans coming over to Keeneland to compete in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf and Juvenile Fillies Turf. Rather than identify every horse, like I did in the Mile, for each race, I’ll focus here on one for each race that I really like next weekend. For the Juvenile Turf, it came down to Birchwood and Cymric. I landed on Cymric. His trainer, John Gosden, sends over horses with the intent to win. It’s easy to dismiss that idea because, of course, every trainer goes to the Breeders’ Cup hoping, if not expecting, to win. But Gosden is one of the best. He has four wins with 30 starters and his runners have finished in the top four 12 times. Cymric, by top U.S. turf sire Kitten’s Joy, won a stakes race on Sept. 16 in England and enters the Breeders’ Cup off a runner-up finish by a neck in the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere Grand Criterium on the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe undercard in his first start on firm turf. For the Juvenile Fillies Turf, I really like Illuminate’s chances to give her trainer, Richard Hannon, who took over for his accomplished father Richard Hannon Sr. in 2014, his first Breeders’ Cup win. She won her first three races, including a pair of group stakes wins, before finishing second to a really nice filly in Lumiere in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes. 

Of Note: American Pharoah

Eclipse Sportswire

There was part of me that feared we might have already seen the best of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah when he tasted defeat in the Travers Stakes. It’s tough to keep a racehorse in stellar condition through the spring, summer and fall. I’m no clocker or expert when it comes to analyzing horses workouts, but it doesn’t take a savant to see that American Pharoah is training very well in California in preparation for the Classic. Take a look at this video of his workout on Oct. 20. Look, you don’t need me to tell you that American Pharoah is good, but he’s doing really well and I think he’s poised to run a big race.

Cooling Down

1. Flintshire

Eclipse Sportswire

It was disappointing to learn that Flintshire would not be making the trip over from Europe for the Breeders’ Cup Turf. This 5-year-old has run two monster races in the United Stakes, finishing second last year in the Breeders’ Cup Turf and winning the Grade 1 Sword Dancer Stakes in a runaway in August. Golden Horn, who defeated Flintshire in the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, would have been a tough test again for Flintshire, but he’s a proven runner in the U.S., where the turns are quite a bit tighter than Europe and the pace of races often sets up much differently. Instead, Flintshire will be pointed to the Japan Cup.

2. Gleneagles  

Eclipse Sportswire

Lackluster. First word that popped into my mind after watching Gleneagles finish sixth in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes on British Champions Day. It wasn’t just that Gleneagles tasted defeat for the first time this year in the one-mile race, it was that he didn’t look like the same beast he was when winning an Irish and English classic race earlier this season. Gleneagles finished 2 ¾ lengths behind winner Solow and really offered little reason to get excited in the final quarter of a mile. It looked like the four months without a race as his connections searched for ideal turf really dulled the Galileo colt. To come over to the U.S. and make his first start on dirt and his first start at 1 ¼ miles against deep field that includes a Triple Crown winner and the best female dirt horse in training, Gleneagles would need to be at his absolute best. It’s pretty clear that is not the case.

3. Nyquist    

Eclipse Sportswire 

I understand that after improving to four-for-four with a win in the FrontRunner Stakes on Sept. 26, Nyquist does not need a lot of work in the mornings to be ready for the Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. But his workouts on Oct. 9 and Oct. 16 did not inspire me to change my views on this probable Breeders’ Cup favorite that I think is headed the wrong way. The FrontRunner was his first attempt stretching out in distance to 1 1/16 miles after competing in sprints in his first three starts. The brilliance he showed in shorter races was not as evident in the FrontRunner. He posted his worst speed figure to date according to both Equibase and Beyer Speed Figures and by Equibase numbers the FrontRunner was a 16-point drop. Don’t get me wrong this is a very nice, accomplished 2-year-old colt and the leading candidate for the Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old male, but I’m taking a stand against him at the Breeders’ Cup.

Of Note: Postponed   

Here is another talented European who was targeting the Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf but some post-race testing after his most recent workout led to concerns that he was not in peak condition. It’s unfortunate because Postponed was in fine form following wins in both the Group 1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes in July and the Group 2 Prix Foy on Sept. 13, both at the same 1 ½-mile distance of the Breeders’ Cup Turf. It seems like the 4-year-old by Dubawi had really come into his own in the second half of the year, and I think he would have been a legit threat.

Racing Terms
Allowance race – A race for which the racing secretary drafts certain conditions to determine weights to be carried based on the horse’s age, sex and/or past performance.
Also-eligible – A horse officially entered for a race, but not permitted to start unless the field is reduced by scratches below a specified number.
Apprentice – A rider who has not ridden a certain number of winners within a specified period of time. Also known as a “bug,” from the asterisk used to denote the weight allowance such riders receive.
Blinkers – A cup-shaped device that limits a horse’s vision. Blinkers, often used to try to improve a horse’s focus, come in a variety of sizes and shapes to allow as little or as much vision as the trainer feels is necessary.
Bullet – The fastest workout of the day at a track at a particular distance.
Claiming race – A race in which each horse entered is eligible to be purchased at a set price.
Closer – A horse that runs best in the latter part of the race, coming from off the pace.
Connections – Persons identified with a horse, such as owner, trainer, jockey and stable employees.
Disqualification – Change in order of finish by stewards for an infraction of the rules.
Dam – The mother of a horse.
Entry – Two or more horses with common ownership that are paired as a single betting unit in one race.
Front-runner – A horse whose running style is to attempt to get on or near the lead at the start of the race and to continue there as long as possible.
Furlong – An eighth of a mile.
Graded race – A non-restricted race with added money or guaranteed purse value of $100,000 or more which has been run at least twice under similar conditions and on the same surface and has been assigned graded status for the year contested by the American Graded Stakes Committee.
Handicap – This race type refers to a race where the weights are assigned by the track’s racing secretary or handicapper based upon past performances.
Length – A measurement approximating the length of a horse, used to denote distance between horses in a race.
Off track – A track that has a wet surface and isn’t labeled as “fast”.
Pacesetter – The horse that is running in front (on the lead).
Past performances – A horse’s racing record, earnings, bloodlines and other data, presented in composite form.
Prep – A workout (or race) used to prepare a horse for a future engagement.
Post Parade – Horses going from paddock to starting gate past the stands. The post parade provides spectators with a chance to get a final look at the horse before the race.
Post Position – Position of stall in starting gate from which a horse begins a race.
Rabbit – A speed horse running as an entry with another, usually a come-from-behind horse. The rabbit is expected to set a fast pace to help the chances of its stablemate.
Rank – A horse that refuses to settle under a jockey’s handling in a race, running in a headstrong manner without respect to pace.
Scratch – To be taken out of a race before it starts.
Silks – Jacket and cap worn by jockeys.
Sire – Father of a foal.
Stakes – A race for which the owner usually must pay a fee to run a horse. The fees can be for nominating, maintaining eligibility, entering and starting, to which the track adds more money to make up the total purse. Some stakes races are by invitation and require no payment or fee.