Breeders’ Cup Tip: Arc-hitect of an Upset

Golden Horn, above winning the Qtar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, will try to become the first horse ever to complete the Arc-Breeders' Cup Turf double. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
Looking over all of the Breeders’ Cup races, there’s one that stands out as the most likely spot for a favorite to surface in the winner’s circle.
The Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf traditionally has been a great spot for a foreigner to bully the Americans in a race that now carries a purse of $3-million. Horses from outside the United States, including one from Canada, won 17 times in the first 31 editions of the Turf, which included a dead-heat.
This year, there’s one international runner headed to Keeneland Race Course who is not exactly your granddaddy’s European. He’s not just any Group 1 winner; he’s the winner of the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, Europe’s most famous and coveted race.
And in Golden Horn, Americans will not be seeing a horse that had everything fall his way in scoring a victory at long odds. They’re getting a star, a horse with a record of seven wins in eight starts who was victorious in the Arc over the mighty Treve, who was seeking a third straight victory in France’s signature race.
As an additional sign of the kind of respect Golden Horn has earned overseas, it was believed that Arc runner-up Flintshire was also headed to Keeneland for a rematch with Golden Horn on Oct. 31. Flintshire was the runner-up in both this year’s Arc and the 2014 Turf, and earlier this year he won the Grade 1 Sword Dancer Stakes at Saratoga. But instead of tangling with Golden Horn again, his connections opted to stay home and point for the Japan Cup.
So, with all that in mind, you have a single in one of the multi-race wagers on the second and final day of Breeders’ Cup action, right?
Not so fast.
As much as an Arc winner would seem a mortal lock in the Turf, Golden Horn is actually trying to become the first horse to win both races. On five occasions, an Arc winner has raced in the Turf and each time they went down to defeat.
Making that statistic even more astonishing, only once has an Arc winner finished better than fourth in the Turf. That was Trempolino, who finished second in the 1987 edition.
As much as that 0-for-5 record seems implausible, there’s some logic to it. The Arc is the race Europeans point to all year long. European trainers gear their horse’s campaigns to be ready for a peak performance in early October.
Once that happens, it makes sense that winning the Arc could leave little in a horse’s fuel tank, explaining such a poor record despite having some seemingly unbeatable horses ship to the U.S.
Both times an Arc winner has been sent off at less than even-money in the Breeders’ Cup - which could happen again this year with Golden Horn – the European has done no better than finish fourth. Dancing Brave, the 1986 Arc winner, was a 1-to-2 favorite in that year’s Turf, but checked in fourth.  In 2007, over a monsoon-soaked turf course at Monmouth Park that resembled one of those Jersey swamps Bruce Springsteen sings about, Arc champion Dylan Thomas was sent off at 4-to-5 in the Turf and backstroked home fifth.
2007 BREEDERS' CUP TURF

Courtesy of Breeders' Cup
Interestingly, in those five races, the winners in four of them were American-based horses. That, too, might seem odd, but again has some logic attached to it.
The one time a European defeated the Arc winner was 1990 when In the Wings, who was fourth in the Arc, turned the tables on the victorious Saumarez at Belmont Park. To a degree, that was actually expected as In the Wings was sent off as part of a favored 1.90-to-1 entry in the Turf while Saumarez was dismissed at 2.70-to-1 and finished fifth.
Most of the time, however, other top Europeans – like Flintshire this year – opted for “no mas” at the prospect of having to ship across the Atlantic Ocean just to get beat by a horse that defeated them at Longchamp.
So as formidable as Golden Horn might seem after checking out his past performances, history begs to differ and provides five reasons to consider an American runner such as Big Blue Kitten or Slumber or Twilight Eclipse.
Maybe even a possibility such as the horse who might one day supplant Peyton Manning in those Papa John’s commercials, provided he can win the Turf.
Yes, The Pizza Man just might deliver and bring home the dough.
Corny, sure, but even with an Arc winner on hand, it shouldn’t be a surprise if an American horse gets the last laugh.
THE LESSON: As unbeatable as an Arc winner might seem, they’ve been nothing but vulnerable in the Breeders’ Cup Turf.
THE PIZZA MAN

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire