As strange as it might seem, when many of the fastest horses in the world meet every year in the Breeders' Cup Sprint (gr. I), the quickest out of the gate mostly don't win.
The results are straightforward. In the last 20 years, only two horses have led at every call in the Sprint—Desert Stormer in 1995 and Big Drama in 2010—the same number of horses who have closed from last place to win, like Lit de Justice and Elmhurst did back-to-back in 1996-1997.
More often than not, the winner races somewhere in-between for most of the Sprint and that could be troubling to the likely top two betting choices in this year's edition at Keeneland, Private Zone and Runhappy, who have been out in front in every single race they've participated in this season.
Granted, both runners have been nothing short of dazzling in 2015.
Good Friends Stable's Private Zone, the expected favorite, has sped to victory in all three of his starts shorter than a mile this year, including a 3 3/4-length score in the seven-furlong Forego (gr. I) last time out Aug. 29 at Saratoga Race Course.
BALAN: Private Zone Speeds to Forego Victory
James McIngvale's Runhappy has similarly won all four of his starts this year—all sprints, at four different racetracks and three different distances—most impressively in the seven-furlong King's Bishop (gr. I), also Aug. 29 at Saratoga, when the Super Saver colt led all the way and hit the wire four lengths in front of fellow Sprint entrants Limousine Liberal (second) and Holy Boss (third).
NOVAK: Runhappy Romps to Record King's Bishop Score
Fellow speedsters Favorite Tale and Masochistic could also factor into the pace scenario, setting the table for a host of off-the-pace runners and closers.
A two-time grade I winner this year, Wild Dude might be the most likely contender of that closing group. On the seemingly speed-favoring West Coast circuit, the Jerry Hollendorfer-trained son of Wildcat Heir has found considerable success at the Sprint's six-furlong distance. He's had scores in the Bing Crosby (gr. I) at Del Mar July 26 and the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (gr. I) last time out Oct. 3, when he closed after trailing Masochistic and Distinctiv Passion by 15 lengths. Fellow closer and Sprint entrant Kobe's Back was also only a neck back in second in the Sprint Championship.
BALAN: Wild Dude Rallies Late to Claim SA Sprint
The formidable remainder of the field—Salutos Amigos, Holy Boss, Ivan Fallunovalot, Alsvid, Limousine Liberal, Barbados, and Stallwalkin' Dude—may not be as far back, but will still need a considerable late kick to get past the Sprint frontrunners.
PP | Horse | Jockey | Wgt | Trainer | M/L |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1Alsvid (KY) | Chris Landeros | 126 | Chris A. Hartman | 50/1 |
2 | 2Kobe's Back (KY) | Gary L. Stevens | 126 | Peter Eurton | 15/1 |
3 | 3Stallwalkin' Dude (FL) | Irad Ortiz, Jr. | 126 | David Jacobson | 15/1 |
4 | 4Limousine Liberal (KY) | John R. Velazquez | 124 | Ben Colebrook | 15/1 |
5 | 5Runhappy (KY) | Edgar S. Prado | 124 | Maria Borell | 3/1 |
6 | 6Ivan Fallunovalot (TX) | Calvin H. Borel | 126 | W. T. Howard | 30/1 |
7 | 7Holy Boss (KY) | Ricardo Santana, Jr. | 124 | Steven M. Asmussen | 15/1 |
8 | 8Wild Dude (FL) | Rafael Bejarano | 126 | Jerry Hollendorfer | 10/1 |
9 | 9Masochistic (CA) | Mike E. Smith | 126 | Ronald W. Ellis | 10/1 |
10 | 10Salutos Amigos (KY) | Jose L. Ortiz | 126 | David Jacobson | 12/1 |
11 | 11Barbados (KY) | Luis Saez | 124 | Michael A. Tomlinson | 20/1 |
12 | 12Big Macher (CA) | Joel Rosario | 126 | Richard Baltas | 20/1 |
13 | 13Private Zone (ON) | Martin A. Pedroza | 126 | Jorge Navarro | 5/2 |
14 | 14Favorite Tale (PA) | Javier Castellano | 126 | Guadalupe Preciado | 12/1 |
15 | 15Gentlemen's Bet (FL) | Robby Albarado | 126 | Ron Moquett | 30/1 |