Bram’s Take: What a Long Strange Trip It’s Been

Fans flocked to Belmont Park for American Pharoah's Triple Crown bid (above) and the final step on his career path will come at Keeneland Race Course on Saturday in the $5-million Breeders' Cup Classic. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
Horse racing had a revival this summer thanks to American Pharoah ending a generational gap between Triple Crown winners. The fact that Pharoah will have run three times, including this weekend’s Breeders’ Cup Classic, since his historic win at Belmont Park is not as simple as a testament to the ownership doing the sport a solid. They are financially inclined to continue racing, since Pharoah’s stud rights are literally out of their hands come 2016. That doesn’t mean that they weren’t facing pressure from their partners to not take such a risk even if the sport can’t express enough gratitude.
It’s hard to say goodbye. Just ask the surviving members of the Grateful Dead, who put on a few final shows (supposedly) before adding just a few more. The truth is, wherever the road took them, legions of fans followed and would continue to do so. Pharoah is that for racing. So it feels fitting that Pharoah’s run ends in the same year the Dead stop taking the stage. You won’t see this again … maybe ever.
It took so long to even get a Triple Crown winner, clearly no one can forecast when the next historic horse will hit the track. Even more odd were those circumstances by which the ownership retained before losing the rights to American Pharoah. So, the idea that any future Triple Crown winner would end up racing in the Breeders’ Cup is equally unlikely. What happened here was a confluence of circumstances in which everyone won. That’ s rare. So assuming this is it for American Pharoah and the Grateful Dead, 2015 for me will be remembered as a giant lawn party. The kind that makes you want to revisit it over and over ...
Now to Shakedown Street — the Field for the Breeder’ s Cup Classic:
1. Tonalist — Here’s one of those classic, “I almost have to bet on him because he shouldn’t be 6-1 in any race ever.” Tonalist has run 14 races and won more than $3-million. And he’s got the great Johnny V. on his back starting from the inside. Assuming a good break, he can decide where he wants to be. I’m guessing his preference of being way off the pace may be foolish based on who the front-runners probably are here. So he’ll be more inclined to stay mid-pack, five lengths at most away from American Pharoah and Beholder. And then, we’ll see what happens. If he’s on his game, he can win.
TONALIST WAS ON HIS GAME IN JOCKEY CLUB GOLD CUP ON OCT. 3

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
2. Keen Ice — Here’s one of those classic, “I almost have to bet on him because he shouldn’t be 12-1 in any race ever.” Listen, I went to a bunch of Dead shows back in the day but my short-term memory wasn’t altered so much that I can’t remember that he beat American Pharoah this summer at Saratoga. 12-1 for the one horse who ran a Triple Crown winner down? Sign me up. He keeps getting better, which suggests we may not have seen his best. Now in fairness, up until the Travers, he’s been part of that best-of-the-rest bunch, so I’ m more inclined to see him hit the board but not pass the finish line first. Still, am I tossing him? Are you nuts?
3. Frosted — Here’s one of those classic … Again, Frosted has huge value here. Clearly, he can compete, but unlike Keen Ice he hasn’t proved he can get there and topple the big boys (or in this case, girl). He tried to go toe to toe in the Travers with American Pharoah, and that didn’t work out. His most recent win was at the Pennsylvania Derby as the heavy favorite and the times produced aren’t anything worth mentioning. I am tossing Frosted here only because I think the field is too deep. My exotic bet may regret this.
4. American Pharoah — The only real question is whether he can produce the runs he had late spring and mid-summer one more time. Only Bob Baffert and Victor Espinoza really know the answer to that. Obviously, he’ll need it. You can argue that this field may offer a tougher test than the Kentucky Derby and is clearly deeper then either Preakness or Belmont Stakes fields. So if he wins this, he’ll have earned it. I assume he goes to the front. Is Beholder right there or right behind? Can Pharoah control the pace long enough to essentially go wire to wire? I guess we will see on Saturday.
AMERICAN PHAROAH SEALING TRIPLE CROWN IN BELMONT STAKES

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
5. Gleneagles — I never trust the European horses in these spots. Is he good? Sure. Is he great? I don’ t know; no one does. How often do the imports come over here and beat our best? Almost never. So, I’m sticking with the guys and gals from the good ole U S of A, thank you very much.
6. Effinex — The wild card. Three of his last four races say he won’ t be a factor. The problem is those moments where he won at this distance against stakes competition. The real turn off is the Woodward Stakes, where the fractions were fast, he couldn’t get near the lead and weakened in the stretch. You have to go with trends sometimes and the field feels too deep for him. The problem with that theory is he has shown that he has it in him, so him winning would not qualify as a stunner. We’ll know by the final turn if he’ll be competitive or not.
7. Smooth Roller — This is quite a step up having only raced four times and only seen graded stakes competition once. I can’t make a case to actually bet on that, but I can’t say I’m not scared of him. He ships in from the West Coast, which this late in the season is not something I prefer. His trainer is not as seasoned in these types of spots, either. I’m more inclined to believe he should have taken his shot in a different Breeders’ Cup race.
SMOOTH ROLLER WINNING AWESOME AGAIN

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
8. Hard Aces — He pulled one of the upsets of the summer winning the Gold Cup in late June at Santa Anita. In only one other race since January has he been within four lengths of the leader and his last two races saw him get blown out. I’ve made a case for everyone so far. Not this one. This is not his moment.
9. Honor Code — 6-1? Really? You are begging me to bet on this horse. BEGGING. He won’t go to the front with Pharoah and Beholder. The issue is how far off the pace he likes to be after the opening quarter and half-mile. Racing 11 lengths or farther back seems like it may be too much of a gap to come back from, so I’m assuming he uses a little more energy early to stay closer to the front-runners. The splits in the Whitney are what make him really appealing. So, the pace was high end. He’s 19 lengths off at one point. NINETEEN. He laps Tonalist in the upper stretch and nabs Liam’s Map at the wire. This horse has spoiler written all over him.
HONOR CODE WINNING WHITNEY

Photo by NYRA
10. Beholder — Does Beholder become the greatest mare of all time if she wins? Does this top what Zenyatta did? Those questions should be asked if she indeed beats the reigning Triple Crown winner. Early strategy will be fascinating here. She doesn’t typically run out to the lead. She prefers to stay in a stalking position, but she’ll have to go from the outside post to get there. The good news is Honor Code on her inside doesn’t figure to push her hard for early positioning. If she gets a good break and gets right behind, say Frosted, it shapes up to be a great match race with Pharoah. If she has to deal with traffic to get where she wants to be, that doesn’t bode well in my opinion.
The bet: I’m not going to put money on American Pharoah to win. I already have my Belmont keepsake, and the gambler in me is screaming to look for value. I will describe him as “most likely winner” here based on post position and, of course, recent history that says the majority of these horse may be able to, but probably can’t catch him. I assume Beholder tries to get right on his tail early. So is the pace too hot to endure a mile and a quarter? That’s the question. I think Honor Code makes a bold move in the stretch and either pulls off the upset and makes me rich, or falls within a half-length short.
I’ll take my chances with Honor Code, betting him to win with the odds to back that decision.
The Full Milty: trifecta box — Tonalist, Keen Ice, Smooth Roller, American Pharoah, Honor Code, Beholder
$5-million Breeders' Cup ClassicOct. 31, Keeneland Race Course, Race 11, 5:35 p.m. ET1 1/4 miles, dirt, 3-year-olds and olderTV: NBC

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner

Odds

1

Tonalist

John Velazquez

Christophe Clement

Robert S. Evans

6-1

2

Keen Ice

Irad Ortiz Jr.

Dale Romans

Donegal Racing

12-1

3

Frosted

Joel Rosario

Kiaran McLaughlin

Godolphin Racing

15-1

4

American Pharoah

Victor Espinoza

Bob Baffert

Zayat Stables

6-5

5

Gleneagles

Ryan Moore

Aidan O'Brien

Michael Tabor , Mrs. John Magnier & Derrick Smith

20-1

6

Effinex

Mike Smith

James Jerkens

Tri-Bone Stables

30-1

7

Smooth Roller

Tyler Baze

Victor Garcia

Lucky Charm Stable

15-1

8

Hard Aces

Joe Talamo

John Sadler

Hronis Racing

50-1

9

Honor Code

Javier Castellano

Shug McGaughey

Lane's End Racing & Dell Ridge Farm

6-1

10

Beholder

Gary Stevens

Richard Mandella

B. Wayne Hughes

3-1

2 GUYS AND A CLASSIC: BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC