Fourteen Longshots or Value Plays for the Breeders’ Cup

The Pizza Man has a good chance at an enticing price in the Longines Breeders' Cup Turf. (Photos by Eclipse Sportswire)
Every handicapper and bettor loves a longshot. When your bomb comes in you look like a genius and pad your wallet and if the finish last, hey, at least you took a shot against a chalky 4-5 favorite.
Historically, no singular weekend of racing produces more longshots each year than the Breeders’ Cup World Championships. Not every race is won by massive longshots like Arcanques ($269.20 for a $2 win bet in 1993), but with 13 races featuring full fields of at least 12 accomplished horses for almost all of them, you have a chance to make a big score.
Let’s take a look at seven longshots at 15-1 on the morning line or better with a shot to run a big race and another group of seven horses who look to me far better than their odds.
POTENTIAL BOMBS
Ray’s The Bar (20-1) — I profiled this Exceed And Excel colt in my Seeking the Next Superstar blog and I love him to hit the board at enticing odds in the Juvenile Turf with a shot to win. He won his debut in England and then finished a troubled third, beaten by only a half-length, when rallying from last of 10 in the stretch in the Grade 3 Pilgrim Stakes in his U.S. debut. His dam (mother), Cosmic Fire, is a half-sister (same dam, different sire [father]) to the dam of 2014 champion turf male and older male Main Sequence.
Mirage (30-1) — There are similarities between Ray’s The Bar and Mirage in that both debuted in Europe with a win and then finished a troubled third when stepping up in class in their first start in the U.S. Like Ray’s The Bar, I also really like her pedigree. Mirage was finishing really well in the Surfer Girl Stakes at Santa Anita when she was stopped on the rail by another runner and settled for third. The horse who cut her off was disqualified and Mirage elevated to second. Her dam (mother), Applauded is a half-sister (same dam, different sire) to 2012 Irish Two Thousand Guineas winner Power and Grade 1 winner Curvy. She will be a key to my plays in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.
Fioretti (30-1) — In a TwinSpires Filly and Mare Sprint without a clear-cut favorite, you could do much worse that a 30-1 runner in career-best form coming off a win on this Keeneland main track in the Grade 2 Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes.  Prior to that she posted a career-best 103 Equibase Speed Figure going a mile at Ellis Park, so seven-eighths of a mile should be no problem.
FIORETTI

Mondialiste (15-1) — I’m going into the Breeders’ Cup Mile thinking flexibility. You are going to get a big price on a number of very talented horses. Judging by the morning line, Mondialiste could be one of them. He won his only start in North America, taking the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile by a half-length on yielding turf that could be similar to what he sees on Saturday. He might be a cut below the best in Europe, but he ran a very nice 118 Equibase Speed Figure in the Woodbine Mile and has never been better with three straight wins for a very good trainer in David O’Meara.
Grand Arch (15-1) — Here is another Breeders’ Cup Mile contender who could be a nice price. I have a ton of respect for European invaders Esoterique, Make Believe, Impassable, Time Test and last year’s winner Karakontie as well as the aforementioned Mondialiste. But Grand Arch has three wins and three seconds in six races at Keeneland, he’s posted 123 and 119 speed figures in his two most recent starts and he’s proven on rain-soaked ground at Keeneland.
GRAND ARCH

Riker (15-1) — The thing that jumps out at me with this year’s Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile is that there isn’t the usual group of pure speed horses. There is some speed but not an abundance and I think Riker could be the beneficiary. He’s unbeaten in four starts and has led at every call in his last three, including a convincing win at 1 1/16 miles in the Grade 3 Grey Stakes at Woodbine. The 1 1/16-mile main track set-up at Keeneland uses the early finish line at the sixteenth-pole, which means the stretch is a sixteenth of a mile shorter than usual. Combine that with the fact that Keeneland plays well for speed horses and I could see this unbeaten colt taking the lead into the stretch with a big shot at a huge price. He’s never run on dirt before, but he has won at the distance. And at 15-1 I’m willing to take a chance.
The Pizza Man (15-1) — The Pizza Man’s runner-up finish to Grand Arch in the Shadwell Turf Mile was one of the better seconds I’ve seen this year (not as good as Liam’s Map’s Whitney, but you get the drift). He also loves turf with a little give and it’s been rainy in Lexington. I don’t think you’ll get 15-1 on a horse with his popularity, but I’d still find him enticing at 10-1 in the Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf. You have a probable huge favorite in Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner Golden Horn, but there really isn’t a ton of depth in this race. If Golden Horn tosses in a clunker this race will be wide open. Arc winners are winless in five tries in the Turf and Golden Horn doesn’t like soft turf. Just something to consider. 
POTENTIAL VALUE PLAYS
I’m a Chatterbox (8-1) — I’m impressed with this filly’s versatility and consistency this year and she’s my choice in the Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff. The draw in post-position #1 wasn’t ideal, but she won stakes on the lead and from well off the pace. Her trainer Larry Jones is a magician with fillies and she comes in off a career-best 103 Equibase Speed Figure in winning the Grade 1 Cotillion Stakes. One caveat, I don’t think she’ll be 8-1 with the scratch of last year’s winner Untapable, probably more like 9-2. I’m cool with that.
I'M A CHATTERBOX

Super Majesty (10-1) — There is a ton of speed in the TwinSpires Filly and Mare Sprint, but I think she might be the best of the best. Most of the others have kind of set a baseline of what their best is but Super Majesty could be that freak. She’s only lost once in four starts, her speed figures say she’s there with the best and I say she runs a monster race for her Hall of Fame trainer Jerry Hollendorfer.
Photo Call (12-1), Secret Gesture (8-1), Dacita (8-1) — I’m not taking a stand against probable heavy favorite Legatissimo in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf, I’m looking for other horses to pair with her in exactas and trifectas. Photo Call is trained by Graham Motion, who upset this race with Shared Account at 46-1 in 2010, and comes off a career-best 2 ½-length romp in the Grade 1 Rodeo Drive Stakes. Secret Gesture finished first in the Grade 1 Beverly D. Stakes on yielding turf but was disqualified for interference. Still she ran a big one in that race, she has a solid track record in Europe and she was beaten by only two lengths when fifth in last year’s Filly and Mare Turf. Dacita is fresh off of an impressive North American debut win in the Grade 2 Ballston Spa Stakes for a great trainer in Chad Brown. Box these three with Legatissimo in the exacta and trifecta and I’ll meet you at the windows to cash our tickets.
Wild Dude (10-1) — I’m taking Runhappy to win the TwinSpires Breeders’ Cup Sprint, but I’m not blind and I’m not an idiot, although there might be a few people who can make a solid case against the latter. There is the definite chance for a pace meltdown in the Sprint and if that happens I want the best closer I can find: Wild Dude. Even if Runhappy wins, this horse finishes in the top three.
WILD DUDE

Honor Code (6-1) — I know, you want to bet the Triple Crown winner or the filly to beat the boys. I get it. But Honor Code is a gift from the racing gods at 6-1. When he runs his best race, he’s as fast as any of these, he’s training lights out and he’s in the hands of one of the best in the business in Hall of Famer Shug McGaughey. He will be flying late, so even if you don’t bet him to win, at the least box him with your favorite of American Pharoah and Beholder. Hey, I’m a huge fan of both of them, too, I just like Honor Code a little bit better.