Matching Breeders’ Cup Classic Contenders with Presidential Hopefuls

What does Donald Trump have in common with Breeders' Cup Classic contender Frosted? Dave Hill has the answer. (All Thoroughbred photos courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire and all presidential candidate images via WikiMedia Commons)
The last few weeks have been filled with news about the upcoming Breeders’ Cup World Championships and the ongoing presidential elections, and it’s been hard for me to keep it all straight in my head. So much so, that I’ve even taken to mixing up all the contenders when handicapping.
As a purely theoretical exercise, I’ve decided to compare each horse in Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Classic with a presidential contender and then handicap them based on those candidate’s current betting odds to win the election.
While this is surely not a smart way to handicap Saturday’s Classic, the results are surprisingly not the dumbest thing ever. Still, gamble on these horses (and candidates) at your own risk. I’m voting for Bernie Sanders and betting on Honor Code, so I’m clearly not even taking my own, super-dumb advice.
1. Tonalist - Mike Huckabee (50-1)

Tonalist is the only horse in the field who has run in the Breeders’ Cup Classic before. Mike Huckabee is one of only two candidates running for president right now that has run before, the other being Hillary Clinton, who we will get to in a minute. Just as Tonalist upset California Chrome in the Belmont Stakes and had everyone hot on his chances in the Classic, Huckabee shocked the world in 2008 by winning the Iowa, first in the nation, caucuses. Tonalist ran a disappointing fifth in the Classic, and Huckabee dropped out of the 2008 election by early March after getting walloped on Super Tuesday by John McCain. This time around, Huckabee’s chances are even worse. He’s 50-1. Tonalist, meanwhile, is among the favorites. It isn’t quite an exact science, I’m afraid. You’re going to have to bear with me.
2. Keen Ice - Hillary Clinton (8-11)

Keen Ice is owned by Jerry Crawford, who is a bigwig in the Democratic Party and in Iowa politics and has been a longtime supporter of Hillary Clinton. He has said that the two biggest goals in his life are to win Iowa for Hillary Clinton and to win the Kentucky Derby. Hard not to give this horse to Hillary Clinton with connections like that. Not to mention the fact that Keen Ice is the one horse to upset American Pharoah’s apple cart this year,
3. Frosted - Donald Trump (13-2)

Frosted is owned by the ruler of Dubai, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum. He’s a billionaire entreprenuer who owns tons of real estate and even owns his own airline. Sound familiar? There’s only one presidential candidate who comes close to this kind of guap - The Donald. He’s currently 13-2.
4. American Pharoah - Chris Christie (66-1)

American Pharoah is owned by Ahmed Zayat, who is a proud resident of New Jersey. So proud, in fact, he tried unsuccessfully to lobby Bruce Springsteen to play at the Haskell this year after entering the Triple Crown winner. American Pharoah won the Haskell and also the hearts of New Jersians for bringing some regal stature to their seaside Monmouth racetrack at a time when it was sorely needed. Chris Christie was there to present the trophy to Zayat after the race. Yes, Christie was booed heartily by the crowd, but he probably comforts himself by figuring that many of them (like me) were from New York anyway. Still, the Jersey boys get Chris Christie, and 66-1 odds.
5. Gleneagles - Martin O’Malley (100-1)

This untested, unknown Irish horse is taking his first dirt and first North American race in a tough spot - the Breeders’ Cup Classic! The U.S. presidential contest has another relatively unknown Irish candidate in Martin O’Malley, former governor of Maryland, where he presented the winner of the Preakness with a trophy for many years. O’Malley is so Irish, in fact, that he plays in a Celtic rock band. His current odds are 100-1.
6. Effinex - George Pataki (300-1)

In 18 lifetime starts this 4-year-old son of Mineshaft has only raced outside of New York one time. That puts him in league with a presidential candidate not well known outside of the Empire State: George Pataki, three-time governor of New York and longest of the longshot Republican candidates. Pataki’s socially liberal brand of conservatism may have played well in the Northeast, but he’s likely to do as well in a national Republican primary as Effinex’s win in the Suburban at Belmont is likely to stack up against Grade 1 champions. Pataki is currently 300-1.
7. Smooth Roller - Ben Carson (22-1)

Smooth Roller is a wildcard in this year’s Classic. He’s only ever raced four times, and only one of those races was a graded stakes, last month’s Grade 1 Awesome Again at Santa Anita, which he won. Still, the presence of a horse in the field for what is essentially the World Championships of Thoroughbred horse racing with only four races under his belt is unusual. Almost as unusual as the presence of an African-American pediatric neurosurgeon who has never before held public office in the Republican presidential field. Ben Carson is currently at 22-1 odds, despite the fact that the last time either party nominated someone without any elected experience was Dwight Eisenhower. Smooth Roller’s morning line odds are 15-1. The world just loves a good underdog story, I guess.
8. Hard Aces - Bobby Jindal (200-1)

I don’t have a lot for this one other than the fact that Hard Aces has only won six out of 25 lifetime starts and 4 of those wins came at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans and Bobby Jindal is the governor of Louisiana. I suppose one could also compare their two trajectories. Hard Aces won the Grade 1 Gold Cup at Santa Anita and thereby qualifying for a bid in this race only to see his stock plummet with back-to-back lackluster finishes in the TVG Pacific Classic and Awesome Again Stakes. Jindal was trotted out as a potential presidential candidate in 2012, only to announce that he wouldn’t run and then see his approval numbers in Louisiana go into the toilet. He’s not running for re-election in Louisiana this year, leaving many to think that Jindal, like Hard Aces, is just running in this race because he can. Hard Aces is 50-1. Jindal is 200-1.
9. Honor Code - Jeb Bush (7-1)

William S. Farish, owner of Lane’s End Racing and Honor Code, is a family friend to the Bush family. He helped George H.W. Bush get elected president and he was appointed ambassador to the United Kingdom by George W. Bush in 2001. It makes sense that Honor Code should get Jeb Bush. While Jeb is hoping to follow in his father’s (and brother’s) footsteps and become the next Bush president, Honor Code is hoping to repeat the accomplishments of his own father, A.P. Indy, who won the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 1992. Jeb is 7-1, which isn’t far from where Honor Code probably will be at post time.
10. Beholder - Bernie Sanders (9-1)

This 5-year-old mare has run 20 races and won 15 of them, an incredible record unlike any other horse in the field. It is eerily similar to Bernie Sanders, who has run in 20 lifetime political races and won 14 of them. These two older competitors, Beholder and Sanders, are each hoping their age and experience will give them an edge on their younger, more lightly raced adversaries. Sanders is getting 9-1, which ain’t a bad price considering the guy is a self-described socialist from the People’s Republic of Vermont.