Betting Against American Pharoah in the Breeders' Cup Classic

Effinex could upset American Pharoah's grand slam bid in Saturday's Breeders' Cup Classic. (Photos by Eclipse Sportswire)
The 32nd edition of the Grade 1, $5-million Breeders' Cup Classic is the first to be run at historic Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Ky. It is also the first to be run in a year Thoroughbred racing has seen a Triple Crown winner, as the last horse to win the Triple Crown, Affirmed, did so before the advent of the Breeders' Cup.
Leading the field of 10 is this year's Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes winner, American Pharoah, who suffered his first defeat of the year at the end of August in the Grade 1 Travers Stakes. Keen Ice was the horse that handed the Triple Crown winner that defeat, with third place finisher Frosted coming out of the Travers to win the Grade 2 Pennsylvania Derby. Those three will be joined by another 3-year-old, Gleneagles, winner of three straight Group 1 stakes in the United Kingdom this spring, running for the first time on dirt and making his North American debut in the Classic. 
Then there are the six older horses with their eyes on the big prize, led by the 5-year-old mare Beholder, winner of all five races this year including against males in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic in August. Also from California and joining Beholder in the starting gate will be Hard Aces and Smooth Roller. Hard Aces won the Grade 1 Gold Cup at Santa Anita in June to earn his spot in the starting gate while Smooth Roller defeated seven other horses handily in the Grade 1 Awesome Again Stakes last month. Tonalist comes into the race off a strong victory in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup. Honor Code defeated Tonalist earlier this summer in the Grade 1 Whitney Stakes and is another with all the credentials necessary to succeed. Last but not least is Effinex, winner of the Grade 2 Suburban Handicap in July at the distance of the Classic. 
Why I am not picking American Pharoah to win the Classic:
There is no doubt that American Pharoah is a special horse, with an extraordinary will to win and the ability to do just that, time and again. He has performed consistently all year, with Equibase Speed Figures of 108, 107, 111, 111, 112, 112 and 110 (even in defeat). Most horses would have tailed off at some point during the year, particularly after what can be the grueling Triple Crown season, with the Derby, Preakness and Belmont run in a five-week period at three different tracks.
AMERICAN PHAROAH

American Pharoah is undoubtedly the best of his crop, and one of the best 3-year-olds to come along in a very long time. However, he has never faced older horses as he is doing in the Classic and although a number of 3-year-olds have won the Classic, the best of those had at least faced, if not beaten, older foes before their Classic try. Additionally, the best older horses in the classic have run faster than American Pharoah, with Tonalist (123, 123 and 122 recently), Honor Code (126 and 122 in victory this spring and summer) and Effinex (122 and 122 in his best efforts) all 10 or more points superior to American Pharoah. Even Smooth Roller (115 recently) and Beholder (114 beating males) have run faster. Not only has American Pharoah not exceeded a 112 figure this year, neither has Keen Ice or Frosted, nor have the latter pair faced older horses until now. For those reasons I don't consider those 3-year-olds as win contenders in this year's Classic. 
Main contenders:
Effinex will be my top choice to win this year's Breeders' Cup Classic, and not just because I'm known as a contrarian. He has run very well at the distance of 1 ¼ miles, winning the Suburban Handicap in July with a 122 figure that he also earned in March. Effinex won the Excelsior Stakes at the distance with a 122 figure in April so achieving that kind of effort is well within his reach, if I can make the case his last two efforts, both sub-par, are not evidence of his current form. Two back in Woodward Stakes, Effinex was nervous behind the gate and perhaps left his best effort back there as well, then earlier this month when beaten by Tonalist in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, Effinex may have had a legitimate excuse as the race was run on a sloppy track. Getting a jockey change to a Hall-of-Fame rider in Mike Smith, Effinex should be racing in fourth or fifth in the early stages, perhaps closer to the pace than Tonalist and definitely closer than Honor Code, so he may have first run on the pacesetters over the other closers, and if he can repeat either his Suburban or Excelsior efforts, he has a legitimate shot to post the upset. 
Beholder has looked sensational this week at Keeneland while preparing for the Classic, particularly in her five-furlong workout on Monday. Showing no signs of ill-effects from traveling from California, the sensational mare who has won 15 of 20 races appears ready to run the best race of her career. Winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies in 2012 and the Breeders' Cup Distaff in 2013, she brings a perfect five-for-five record this year into the race including an eight-length romp in her first-ever race against males this summer in the Pacific Classic. In that race, she earned the second-best figure of her career, 114, and at the distance of the Breeders' Cup Classic. What makes Beholder so special is the fact she cruises at a very high speed and has multiple gears, such that she's been in front with an eighth of a mile to go by an average of three lengths and extending her margin to the wire in most of those races. With Gary Stevens in the saddle as he's been for her last five wins and nine of her 15 victories, this mighty mare could put males to shame for the second time this year. 
BEHOLDER

Tonalist gets the ground saving rail for the Classic, as well as John Velazquez, who has been in the saddle for his last four races. The best of those four was earlier this month when winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup by nearly five lengths, earning a 123 figure for the second race in a row and a 120 or better figure for the fourth time this year in five races. There is a bit of concern that the sloppy track aided Tonalist and that since he was beaten by Honor Code in both the Metropolitan Handicap and Whitney, Honor Code may be better, but one difference in this year's Classic is there may not be the hot early pace benefiting Honor Code as it did in those races. Tonalist may be in a better early position and able to capitalize and get the lead in the stretch before Honor Code gets into high gear, resulting in Tonalist winning the Classic.
About some of the rest: Gleneagles is a 3-year-old the same as American Pharoah, Frosted and Keen Ice but he's run faster than any of them in terms of speed figures. Winning three important Group 1 races in a row this spring, Gleneagles earned the equivalent of 125, 121 and 125 Equibase figures. His connections thought long and hard about running him two weeks ago on soft ground in England but did so anyway, with Gleneagles earning the worst finish (sixth) of his career. Although he has never run on dirt and never raced further than a mile, being a son of Galileo there is little doubt about his ability to run 1 ¼ miles. In my mind there is not much doubt about dirt as his dam's sire is Storm Cat, one of the best sires of dirt runners in the past quarter century.
Honor Code prepped for the Classic in the one-turn mile Kelso Stakes earlier this month, closing for third and setting him up nicely for a big effort. He too has never raced 10 furlongs but with a career-best 126 figure earned winning the Whitney in August, Honor Code has the ability to compete here. That is, provided he gets some pace to run at as he has been last or next-to-last in the early stages in his last six races. 
HONOR CODE

Back to the 3-year-olds, American Pharoah, Frosted and Keen Ice all have earned best figures of 112, 111 and 111 which I don't feel would be competitive in the Classic if repeated. Smooth Roller earned a 115 figure winning his most recent race, the Awesome Again Stakes, but with only four races to date and not having an official timed workout in two weeks I am taking a stand against him. Hard Aces earned a 102 figure winning the Gold Cup at Santa Anita in June which also appears too low to be competitive if repeated in this race. 
My top three Classic contenders:EffinexBeholderTonalist 
You can get Ellis' detailed analysis and selections for Breeders' Cup weekend at Equibase.com.

$5-million Breeders' Cup ClassicOct. 31, Keeneland Race Course, Race 11, 5:35 p.m. ET1 1/4 miles, dirt, 3-year-olds and olderTV: NBC

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner

Odds

1

Tonalist

John Velazquez

Christophe Clement

Robert S. Evans

6-1

2

Keen Ice

Irad Ortiz Jr.

Dale Romans

Donegal Racing

12-1

3

Frosted

Joel Rosario

Kiaran McLaughlin

Godolphin Racing

15-1

4

American Pharoah

Victor Espinoza

Bob Baffert

Zayat Stables

6-5

5

Gleneagles

Ryan Moore

Aidan O'Brien

Michael Tabor , Mrs. John Magnier & Derrick Smith

20-1

6

Effinex

Mike Smith

James Jerkens

Tri-Bone Stables

30-1

7

Smooth Roller

Tyler Baze

Victor Garcia

Lucky Charm Stable

15-1

8

Hard Aces

Joe Talamo

John Sadler

Hronis Racing

50-1

9

Honor Code

Javier Castellano

Shug McGaughey

Lane's End Racing & Dell Ridge Farm

6-1

10

Beholder

SCRATCHED

SCRATCHED

SCRATCHED