Betting the Breeders’ Cup Distaff on a Budget

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
The 32nd running of the Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff might be the most competitive, evenly matched race at the two-day Breeder’s Cup World Championships, with five or six runners having a bona fide chance to win on Friday at Keeneland.
The 1 1/8-mile, $2-million race drew a full field of 14 fillies and mares, and Peace and War drew into the field with the scratch of defending winner Untapable. Let’s hit big on Friday’s Breeder’s Cup finale and get our bankroll off to a roaring start before Saturday’s races roll around.
Handicapping Note: There has been a tremendous speed bias at this distance at the Keenland fall meet with 70% of the winners being on or near the lead AND the outside post positions  — starting gate #8 and out — have been winless this meet.
Despite the defection of two-time champion Beholder, whose connections opted to test her against males in the $5-million Breeders’ Cup Classic, this race is stacked and the odds are definitely going to be in our betting favor.
So, which horses do I really like?
#1 I'm a Chatterbox has enjoyed a stellar year racing in top company. She won 4 of 7 races — she was disqualified from first to second in the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks Stakes in Saratoga — earning $1.25-million in the process. She’s had three nice workouts on the Keeneland track, and trainer Larry Jones usually has them ready to roll. The rail position should play to her advantage as starters from it have won 20% of the races at this distance. She’s sitting on a big race at a nice price.

Photo by Barbara Weidl/EQUI-Photo
#7 Wedding Toast is the lukewarm 4-1 morning-line favorite. She is coming into the race on a three-race win streak for owners Godolphin Racing and trainer Kiaran McLaughlin, a hot trainer this meet with four wins in nine starts). She is 3-for-3 at the 1 1/8-mile distance, including her last wire-to-wire win in Belmont’s Beldame Invitational Stakes. She’s peaking at the right time and has steadily improved with each increase in distance. As soon as the gate opens expect to see her bound to the lead under regular rider Jose Lezcano, and the rest of the Distaff runners will have her to catch. That won’t be an easy task at what figures to be a short price. 

Photo by NYRA
#9 Stellar Wind will be coming into the race well rested from the West Coast, following a two-month layoff. She’s had a nearly perfect year with four wins in five starts. Her only losing effort came as the favorite in the Kentucky Oaks, a race in which she was steadied early and forced nine wide but still rallied for fourth. She’s dangerous at an intriguing price.
#8 Curalina was beaten by Wedding Toast after stumbling at the start of her last race, the Beldame Invitational, but she pulled away from the rest of the field. She has no previous races at Keeneland, but she’s been training extremely well on this track and could be sitting on quite the race.

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
Super Longshot (30-1, morning line) #2 Frivolous must be used underneath in exotics. She has thrown some big, competitive speed figures and has a solid record at this distance (finishing first or second in 5 of 7 races) and the #2 post position should play in her favor.
#14 Sheer Drama has finished no worse than second in her seven 2015 starts, which includes three wins, all under the direction of regular rider Joe Bravo. She’s progressively getting better as time goes on and finally got her first Grade 1 win in Personal Ensign Stakes on Aug. 29 at Saratoga. The two big knocks are that she is coming into this race off a three-month layoff and must overcome the extreme outside post. Some eye-catching, bullets workouts at Gulfstream Park makes her hard to ignore.
Vick’s Picks:
#1 I'm a Chatterbox, #7 Wedding Toast, #9 Stellar Wind, #8 Curalina, #2 Frivolous and #14 Sheer Drama.
Strategy A:
$10 win and $10 place: #1 I’m a Chatterbox ($20)
Strategy B:
$1 exacta box: #1 I’m a Chatterbox, #7 Wedding Toast, #9 Stellar Wind, #8 Curalina and #2 Frivolous = $20 (a $2 box will cost $40)
Strategy C:
$1 trifecta: #1 I’m a Chatterbox with #7 Wedding Toast with ALL = $12
$1 trifecta: #9 Stellar Wind with #1 I’m a Chatterbox with ALL = $12
$2-million Longines Breeders' Cup DistaffOct. 30, Keeneland Race Course, Race 9, 5:35 p.m. ET1 1/8 miles, dirt, fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and olderTV: NBC Sports Network/TVG

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner

Odds

1

I'm a Chatterbox

Florent Geroux

Larry Jones

Fletcher and Carolyn Gray

8-1

2

Frivolous

Jon Court

Vicki Oliver

G. Watts Humphrey Jr.

30-1

3

Salama

Julien Leparoux

Charles Lopresti

Maria Santa Stable

50-1

4

Stopchargingmaria

Javier Castellano

Todd A. Pletcher

Town And Country Horse Farms LLC

5-1

5

Calamity Kate

Edgar Prado

Kelly Breen

George and Lori Hall

30-1

6

My Sweet Addiction

Mike Smith

Martin Jones

Pamela C. Ziebarth

20-1

7

Wedding Toast

Jose Lezcano

Kiaran McLaughlin

Godolphin Racing LLC

4-1

8

Curalina

Joel Rosario

Todd A. Pletcher

Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners

12-1

9

Stellar Wind

Victor Espinoza

John Sadler

Hronis Racing LLC

12-1

10

Yahilwa

James Graham

James Cassidy

D. P. Racing LLC

20-1

11

Untapable

John Velazquez

Steve Asmussen

Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC

5-1

12

Got Lucky

Irad Ortiz Jr.

Todd Pletcher

Hill 'n' Dale Equine Holdings, Inc. & Philip J. Steinberg

6-1

13

Warren's Veneda

Tyler Baze

Craig Lewis

Benjamin C. Warren

30-1

14

Sheer Drama

Joe Bravo

David Fawkes

Harold L. Queen Sr.

9-2

AE-15

Peace and War

Joel Rosario

Graham Motion

Qatar Racing

NA