Photo by Penelope P. Miller/America's Best Racing
America’s Best Racing and BetAmerica team up to provide horseplayers with their best bets of the weekend in a regular feature blog that will run on Fridays.
Each week, one of our crack handicappers - Jose Contreras, Dan Tordjman, Victoria Garofalo, Mike Johnson or Vince Mathews – will provide at least one “Best Bet” of the weekend, ideal for a win bet. The post also will include some combination of additional bets for the weekend.
For some posts, our handicappers will try to identify a longshot play of the weekend, a nice opportunity to swing for the fences on a win bet or to take a shot with a show bet.
Our handicappers also will look for strong exacta plays for the weekend or occasionally try to spot a nice opportunity for other wagers.
This week, each of our handicappers will offer one bet for Friday and another for Saturday to try to capitalize on a fantastic two-day Breeders’ Cup World Championships card.
Place your bets at BetAmerica, which prides itself on outstanding customer service combined with the safety and security of wagering with a reputable advance-deposit wagering platform. Place your bets and you can walk away with some extra cash in your pocket.
Friday, Oct. 30
Victoria Garofalo
EXACTA BOX
Keeneland Race Course, Race 7, Las Vegas Breeders’ Cup Mile, 4:10p.m. ET
#3 Liam’s Map: I honestly think Liam's Map could be the nearest thing to a sure thing on the Breeders' Cup card — he's been absolutely brilliant this season. He should control this race from gate to wire.
#5 Lea: Lea, ironically a dirt horse named after a grassy meadow, is heading into this final race of his career. He’s 3-for-3 at the distance, has been putting in good morning workouts, has shown versatility in races on dirt (third in the Dubai World Cup) and grass, and is the only horse I could see potentially upsetting Liam's Map. If Liam gets pressed Lea’s the logical horse to pick up the pieces.
Jose Contreras
WIN BET/BEST BET
Keeneland Race Course, Race 7, Las Vegas Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, 4:10 p.m. ET
#1 Red Vine: Red Vine didn’t have the best of trips in the Kelso Handicap at Belmont Park but he still managed to finish a good second while closing the gap on the winner late before running out of ground. He’s finished in the top three in 17 of his 19 starts, and his off-the-pace style should fit this race well if a speed duel develops between Liam’s Map, Bradester and a few others. His inside post should allow him to save ground going into the first turn.
Vince Mathews
WIN BET/BEST BET
Keeneland Race Course, Race 8, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, 4:50 p.m. ET
#4 Catch a Glimpse: The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf has many quality contenders, and with 14 horses scheduled to contest this $1-million race, a good trip and racing luck will be crucial. My top pick is Catch a Glimpse, who most recently won the Natalma Stakes at Woodbine in most impressive fashion. Catch a Glimpse appears to have a running style that will put her near the early pace, which could be advantageous in helping her avoid traffic trouble during the race. Florent Geroux, who won the Breeders' Cup Sprint last year, will ride.
Mike Johnson
WIN BET/BEST BET
Keeneland Race Course, Race 9, Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff, 5:35 p.m. ET
#1 I’m a Chatterbox: Wedding Toast will look to have her way in the Distaff, but I think this filly has what it takes to chase the morning-line favorite down. With a solid, clean break from the rail, I’m a Chatterbox should settle within a few lengths of Wedding Toast on the lead.
I’m a Chatterbox has shown a penchant for the 1 1/8-mile distance of this race, having crossed the finish line first in a Grade 1 at Saratoga and finishing a game third in the Kentucky Oaks. Her final tune-up was a romp in the Grade 1 Cotillion Stakes at Parx Racing, where she showed plenty of gas left in the tank at 1 1/16 miles. At 3 years old, I think the best is truly yet to come with this filly’s campaign. And a wager on her offers great value at 8-1. If you score, you may just turn into a chatterbox, too!
Dan Tordjman
WIN BET/BEST BET
Keeneland Race Course, Race 9, Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff, 5:35 p.m. ET
#9 Stellar Wind: Friday’s feature race is one of the more wide-open editions of the Breeders’ Cup Distaff in recent memory. That said, I feel confident that I’ve identified a horse who should run extremely well at a big price. My selection in the Distaff is Stellar Wind.
The daughter of Curlin has had a very interesting career. She broke her maiden (won her first race) at Laurel Park last December by 8 ¾ lengths. When she returned to action earlier this year, it was in California and she comfortably handled her competition in back-to-back graded stakes races. She was so good that she went off as the favorite in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. By all accounts, her fourth-place finish in the race was a disappointment, but a further examination of her race reveals that she had plenty of excuses for her substandard showing.
The Distaff will be Stellar Wind’s third start since the Oaks. Her last two races were both steps in the right direction and she just looks primed to run a huge race on Friday. What I like most about her is that she has tactical speed and the ability to sit off what might very well be a hot pace. Her trainer, John Sadler, has traditionally done very poorly when shipping horses in from his home base of California but I’m hoping Stellar Wind can buck that trend.
Saturday, Oct. 31
Vince Mathews
EXACTA BOX
Keeneland Race Course, Race 3, 14 Hands Winery Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, 12:05 p.m. ET
#2 Tap to It and #10 Songbird
My top two picks in the 14 Hands Winery Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies are Songbird and Tap to It.
Songbird comes into this race undefeated, after three dominant performances in California. Her wide post-position could be a detriment, but Songbird certainly must be respected as the race’s favorite.
Tap to It has not run since she finished a fast-closing second in the Grade 1 Spinaway Stakes at Saratoga. Trainer Ralph Nicks is having a phenomenal year, and I believe this daughter of Tapit will love competing in a two-turn race for the first time.
Jose Contreras
WIN BET/BEST BET
Keeneland Race Course, Race 3, 14 Hands Winery Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, 12:05 p.m. ET
#7 Nickname: Nickname broke last in her debut three races ago but still managed to finish a decent fourth in a field of eight that included fellow rival Rachel’s Valentina. Nickname followed that up with back-to-back wins, including a clear victory in the Grade 1 Frizette Stakes in her first try at a mile. She’s got enough speed to stay close to the leaders early on, and that should allow her to be in good striking position throughout the race.
Mike Johnson
EXACTA BOX
Keeneland Race Course, Race 4, The Twinspires Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, 12:45 p.m. ET
#3 Undrafted: Undrafted is a hard-knocking, elite turf specialist. I don’t think this sprint distance of 5 ½ furlongs suits him perfectly, but this horse has shown the ability to get in the money against world-class company, time and time again.
#12 Ready for Rye: I like Ready for Rye after seeing his ability to thrive on turf with some give to it. Following this week’s rainfall at Keeneland, the course should play to this liking. He’s undefeated on turf, and he’s a legit contender to steal this race at 10-1.
#10 The Great War: The Great War, like Undrafted, is trained by Wesley Ward. The 3-year-old colt comes back having raced just two weeks ago, but after posting a nice Equibase speed figure of 109. He’s an intriguing talent at an intriguing price of 12-1.
Victoria Garofalo
EXACTA BOX
Keeneland Race Course, Race 7, The Twinspires Breeders’ Cup Sprint, 2:50 p.m. ET
#5 Runhappy: Runhappy has proved himself again and again, and quite frankly is a bit of a freak of nature. Coming into this race off a four-race win streak (despite a slipped saddle in his last race), this 3-year-old colt is not only 2-for-2 at the distance, but he’s got a win on the track as well. It’s his race to lose.
#4 Limousine Liberal: Limousine Liberal has been working well and will be ridden by jockey Johnny Velazquez for under-the-radar trainer Ben Colebrook. He has two wins and a second at the distance and only lost by a neck in his last race after chasing Runhappy two starts back. I think he could upset and at a nice price.
Dan Tordjman
EXACTA BOX
Keeneland Race Course, Race 9, Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, 4:10 p.m. ET
#4 Unbridled Outlaw, #3 Greenpointcrusader, #9 Exaggerator and #12 Swipe
The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile is yet another tricky race to handicap on Breeders’ Cup weekend, but if you watch enough replays, you’ll come across something very interesting in the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes. Race winner Cocked and Loaded and second-place finisher Rated R Superstar both will run in the Juvenile. However, I’m most interested in Unbridled Outlaw, who finished third in the Iroquois.
The Dale Romans trainee was starting to make a move midway through the race when he was forced to check and take up as a tiring pacesetter backed up into him. The result of the mishap was Unbridled Outlaw losing at least a dozen lengths. Most horses throw in the towel after getting crushed like that but Unbridled Outlaw re-rallied and passed several horses before finishing third in the race. It was extremely visually impressive, and all reports I’ve been able to gather on the horse indicate he’s gotten even stronger since the Iroquois. The best part about him is that he’s listed at 15-1 on the morning line.
Other intriguing contenders in the Juvenile include Exaggerator, Greenpointcrusader and Swipe. Given the unpredictability of these 2-year-old races, it might be worth it to box all of the aforementioned horses in exactas and trifectas. If you hit either, or better yet both, you’ll be rolling in it — especially if we can get Unbridled Outlaw on top.