Staying Hot in the Rebel on a $20 Budget

Hopportunity (above winning a race at Santa Anita on Jan. 30) is a solid contender in the Rebel Stakes who figures to be an attractive price. (Benoit Photo)

In the words of Peter Rotondo Jr. of “Horseplayers” we’re going to try to stay hot in this week’s edition of betting on a $20 budget. We offered three strategies for betting last weekend’s Tampa Bay Derby and, while two of them failed, one yielded a $145 exacta on a $4 ticket! This week, we’ll look for more of the same while focusing on the $600,000 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park.

The probable favorite is Tapiture, who cruised to a 4 1/2-length victory in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes on this track last month. This Tapit colt has won his last two races handily and, at this moment, is on just about everybody’s top ten Kentucky Derby contender list.

Several of the horses left in the dust by Tapiture in the Southwest Stakes will be returning to take him on again here in the Rebel. Runner-up Strong Mandate has disappointed at short odds several times since his emphatic 9 3/4-length win in the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga Race Course last summer.

The more I see this horse, the more I believe that his freakish effort in that race had everything to do with him enjoying a muddy track while going seven furlongs. He just hasn't shown that same ability in longer races and tired in the lane going this 1 1/16-mile distance in his most recent start. 

The third-place Southwest finisher, Ride On Curlin, also returns here. While he, too, tired late in that race, he can be forgiven to a certain extent on account of an incredibly difficult trip. He was wide early and was forced to make an early move, which still left him three-wide chasing a hot pace. I was impressed that he was even able to hold on to the show spot and I think he’s got some upside.

Another interesting horse is California shipper Kobe's Back. He finally lived up to the hype surrounding him in an impressive win in the San Vicente Stakes on Feb. 16 in his most recent race. Not exactly sure what he beat in that race but Kobe’s Back still deserves plenty of credit for the effort. I have a gut feeling that has me taking a stand against him. That feeling is, in part, associated with jockey Joel Rosario jumping off this horse to ride Strong Mandate.

The horse we’re going with to win the Rebel is Hoppertunity. There was a lot of hype surrounding this horse entering his last race, the Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds in Louisiana. His race looks pretty underwhelming on paper, but if you watch the replay, he actually ran a very strong race. He was one of the only horses who actually gained ground late, and he should be able to sit a nice, stalking trip closer to the pace in this race. You’ve also got to like the addition of Hall of Famer - and big-money rider - Mike Smith. He takes the mount for trainer Bob Baffert, who won this race in 2010, 2011 and 2012 with Lookin At Lucky, The Factor and Secret Circle, respectively. 

Selections: #5 Hoppertunity - #3 Tapiture - #2 Ride On Curlin - #7 Street Strategy

Here are a few ways to bet this race on a small budget:
Strategy A:
$10 win/place on #5 Hoppertunity (Assuming he goes off at around 6-to-1, you’re in line to get back close to double your money if he just finishes second. A win and you’ll be cashing a crisp bill). 

Strategy B:
$2 Exacta Part Wheel 3,5/1,2,3,4,5,7 ($20) 

Strategy C:
$1 Trifecta 3,5/3,5/All ($12)
$.50 Trifecta 3,5/All/3,5 ($6)  
$600,000 Rebel Stakes

Race 10, Saturday, 6:04 PM E.T.
One and One Sixteenth Miles, For Three-Year-Olds