Tip of the Week: Making Amends

Horses race in the stretch at the fall meeting at Keeneland Race Course. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
A horse’s first start always comes with some level of mystery.
Even Secretariat lost in his career debut.
So reading into a horse’s first race can be a tricky challenge. Though you saw a flash of talent once – or a lack of it - you want to make sure a young, untested horse can duplicate that effort.
The sixth race at Keeneland on Oct. 11 provided a good example of how to view a second-time starter. It was a maiden race at seven furlongs (seven-eighths of a mile) for 2-year-olds with a mix of experienced runners and first-time starters.
One of the horses who had already been tested was Synchrony.
He was coming off a runner-up finish in his debut at Churchill Downs, which was a good sign. It’s a logical assumption that a horse good enough to run second in his first race can take a step forward and capture his second start.
He lost, though, by 6 1/4 lengths, which was worrisome. If the winner, Bandwidth, turns out to a mediocre horse, then finishing so far behind him is hardly a ringing endorsement.
So how should a handicapper have looked at Synchrony?
Well, for starters, in that debut he was sent off at 3.30-to-1 odds, which means there was something to like about him heading into that first race and increasing the possibility that he ran into a tiger.
He also raced five wide in that first start, suffering ground loss that might explain away some of those six lengths.
He was also switching jockeys to Shaun Bridgmohan, one of the more established and successful riders on the circuit.
A couple of brisk workouts only added to the belief that Synchrony had simply run into the wrong horse at the wrong time and was capable of making amends in his next start.
Those who bought into that notion about a horse priced at 5-to-1 on the morning line received their reward when Synchrony took charge in the stretch and posted a 3 ¾-length victory at 3.60-to-1 odds, paying $9.20 to win and combining with the 9-5 favorite to trigger a $33.80 exacta.
THE LESSON: As promising as a runner-up finish in a career debut can be, make sure there are other positive factors rolled into the race before backing that horse in its next start.