Two Horses Who Can Upset Exaggerator in the Delta Downs Jackpot

Found Money is one of two horses that may be able to beat Exaggerator. (Photo by Benoit Photos)
Just like that, the focus of the racing world has begun to shift to Kentucky Derby 142. Coming off of one of the most memorable years in the history of horse racing, there’s renewed excitement for the 2016 Run for the Roses. The action picks up in Vinton, La., this Saturday, where a group of 2-year-old colts will compete in the Grade 3, $1-million Delta Downs Jackpot. The winner of the race will be awarded 10 qualifying points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
The race headliner is Exaggerator, the graded stakes winning son of Curlin who has already racked up more than $380,000 in his young career. He’s also the only horse in the field to have competed in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last month, finishing fourth in a field of 14.
Exaggerator has what appears to be a class edge on the field but the argument can be made that he flattened out late in the Juvenile and, perhaps, he may be best suited at a shorter distance than the 1 1/16-miles distance of the Delta Downs Jackpot. With 2-year-olds, who tend to rapidly improve and sometime regress late in the year (and early in their 3-year-old campaigns), I tend to play against short-priced favorites if they show any vulnerabilities at all. In addition to the slight distance concern with Exaggerator, he’ll be racing over the Delta Downs strip for the first time and he turns around quickly off of what’s always a grueling experience in the Breeders’ Cup.
There are several horses I believe are capable of beating Exaggerator, including Harlan Punch and Found Money. Most appealing to me is Harlan Punch. Listed at 10-1 on the morning line, he’s only raced twice and gets a key equipment change by adding blinkers for trainer Tom Amoss, who won this race in 2013 in Rise Up. The blinkers should result in more early speed from Harlan Punch and added focus late in the race, two things he lacked when dropping way out of it early in his last race and then stalling after he’d made a very impressive sweeping move to grab the lead with less than 100 yards to go.
Leading local jockey Gerard Melancon, also known as G-Money, rode Rise Up and he also gets the call here on Harlan Punch. Over the past two years, Amoss and Melancon have teamed up to win an outrageously high 42 percent of their races at Delta Downs and the horse who finished second to Harlan Punch in his first career race came back to win next out. Harlan Punch is a notch below Exaggerator in the speed figure department but the combination of the high-percentage local rider and the addition of blinkers makes him a high value play in this race.
Found Money is the speed of the speed. I fully expect him to gun it from the gate, under jockey Mario Gutierrez. The horse did tire a bit in his last few races and this will be his first time going two turns. That said, the horses who have beaten him in recent starts include the highly-regarded Smokey Image and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Nyquist and runner-up Swipe. Found Money is trained by Doug O’Neill, who won the Delta Jackpot in 2012 with Goldencents.
If Sunny Ridge can show the kind of speed he exhibited in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes, I think he can hang with Found Money. I do worry that the speed he’ll have to chase will wear him out. Lastly, don’t overlook Whitmore. He’s only raced once and won by 7 1/4 lengths, despite a less than ideal trip. However, I see this being a tough spot for his second career start and first attempt going a route of ground.
Selections
#5 Harlan Punch - #7 Found Money - #9 Exaggerator - #3 Sunny Ridge
Bets
Strategy A
$10 win/place on #5
Strategy B
$.50 trifecta 5,7,9/3,5,7,9/1,2,3,4,5,7,9 ($18)
Strategy C
$2 exacta 5/3,4,7,9 ($8)
$1 exacta box 3,5,7,9 ($12)
$1-million Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes
Saturday, Delta Downs, Race 7, 5:15 p.m. ET
1 1/16 miles, dirt, 2-year-olds

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner

Odds

1

Forevamo

Colby Hernandez

Al Stall Jr.

Brittlyn Stable

4/1

2

Memories of Winter

Patrick Valenzuela

Anthony Margotta Jr.

Thoroughbred Investments Fund LLC

10/1

3

Sunny Ridge

Irad Ortiz Jr.

Jason Servis

Dennis Drazin

7/2

4

Whitmore

Robby Albarado

Ron Moquett

Robert LaPenta, Harry Rosenblum and Southern Springs Stables

8/1

5

Harlan Punch

Gerard Melancon

Tom Amoss

Rosemont Farm

10/1

6

Texas Jambalaya

Eddie Martin Jr.

Terry Eoff

Terry Eoff

20/1

7

Found Money

Mario Gutierrez

Doug O'Neill

Reddam Racing

6/1

8

Cowboy Classic

Junior Inirio

Heidi Crane

David Anderson

30/1

9

Exaggerator

Kent J. Desormeaux

Keith Desormeaux

Big Chief Racing

2/1

10

Iron Dome

Steve Bourque

Kenneth Marshall

Dr. Michael Rotstein

20/1