How to Bet With Longshots in the Clark Handicap
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Protonico (right) is a longshot who could provide big exotic bet payouts in Friday's Clark Handicap at Churchill Downs. (Photos by Eclipse Sportswire)
There are few activities better than working off a turkey hangover with a day full of great racing action and that’s exactly what you’ll get on Friday. The highlight on the Friday racing menu is healthy helping of graded stakes runners (see what I did there) squaring off in the Grade 1, $500,000 Clark Handicap at Churchill Downs.
The field is so strong that, by its very nature, it’s hard to identify a favorite. Is it Keen Ice, the horse who dealt American Pharoah his only loss of 2015? Is it Effinex, who finished second to American Pharoah in the Breeders’ Cup Classic? Or maybe it’s Hoppertunity, the winner of the 2014 Clark Handicap who looks to be rounding back into form?
For my money, I’m going to take a shot using - although not narrowing my bets down exclusively to - two longer priced horses who just might be able to factor in the exotics (exactas and trifectas).
The outsider that’s most intriguing to me is Todd Pletcher-trained Protonico (8-1 morning line). He didn’t show much when finishing fifth in the Grade 2 Fayette (finishing behind returning rivals Race Day and Hoppertunity) but he has some interesting back-form. He has arguably run two of the biggest races of his career over the dirt at Churchill, including the Grade 2 Alysheba in May. He also finished just a half-length away from Hoppertunity, when finishing second in this race last year.
An even bigger long shot is Calumet Farm’s Mr. Z, trained by “Coach” D. Wayne Lukas. To me, he’s simply a pace play. It seems like he always runs into a lot of other early speed types and this is the first time in a long while where he might just be able to run off with the lead.
Oklahoma Derby winner Shotgun Kowboy is a pace presence shipping in from Remington Park. He could foil the early pace plans of Mr. Z but if he doesn’t go with him, I think Mr. Z might be on the lead for a good long time. He might not win but at 30-1 on the morning line, he’s a price horse who looks dangerous.
While I might try to beat Hoppertunity from a betting perspective, I truly think he’s probably the best horse in the race. After winning the Clark last year, he appeared to regress a little bit - it was nothing dramatic and he’s remained competitive but just seemed to lose his edge. After back-to-back runner up finishes in the Grade 1 Awesome Again and Grade 2 Fayette (with ascending speed figures), he seems to have that edge back and appears primed for a big race Friday.
HOPPERTUNITY WINS THE 2014 CLARK
The horse who beat Hoppertunity in the Fayette is the other Pletcher trainee in the race, Race Day. He’s another one who seemed off for most of the year until his last race but he had the excuse of finding himself off the pace on a speed-favoring course three races back and then drawing into a tough sprint two races back. In a race like this, he has enough early speed to stick close to the pace and make a big move turning for home.
I’m going to take a stand against both Keen Ice and Effinex in this spot. The latter benefited from drifting behind Pharoah in a race where no one was closing into them. I give him credit for his Breeders’ Cup effort but I can see him taking a step back here. As for Keen Ice, I don’t think the pace scenario will be to his benefit. He’s ultimately a horse that I like to back going 1 1/4 miles or longer, not this 1 1/8-mile distance.
Selections
#6 Hoppertunity - #5 Protonico - #3 Mr. Z - #9 Race Day
Bets on a $20 budget
$1 trifecta 5,6/3,5,6,9/3,5,6,9 ($12)
$1 exacta 3,9/3,5,6,9 ($6)
$1 exacta 6/3,5 ($2)
$500,000 Clark Handicap
Friday, Churchill Downs, Race 11, 5:35 p.m. ET
1 1/8 miles, dirt, 3-year-olds and older
PP
Horse
Jockey
Weight
Trainer
Owner
Odds
1
Keen Ice
Corey Lanerie
120
Dale Romans
Donegal Racing
3-1
2
Looks to Spare
Victor Lebron
113
Otabek Umarov
O'zbekiston Racing
30-1
3
Mr. Z
Ricardo Santana, Jr.
114
D. Wayne Lukas
Calumet Farm
30-1
4
Frivolous
Jon Court
115
Victoria Oliver
G. Watts Humphrey Jr.
15-1
5
Protonico
Julien Leparoux
117
Todd Pletcher
Sumaya U.S. Stables
8-1
6
Hoppertunity
Martin Garcia
121
Bob Baffert
Pegram, Watson and Weitman
7-2
7
Shotgun Kowboy
Cliff Berry
113
C. R. Trout
C. R. Trout
20-1
8
Effinex
Mike Smith
122
Jimmy Jerkens
Tri-Bone Stables
5-2
9
Race Day
John Velazquez
122
Todd Pletcher
Matthew Schera
7-2