Taking a Stand Against Commissioner in Hawthorne Gold Cup

Neck 'n Neck is one of the horses who looks to beat Commissioner in the Hawthorne Gold Cup. (Photo by Matthew Donohue/EQUI-PHOTO)
The 79th running of the $250,000 Hawthorne Gold Cup Handicap brings together a field of eight with the horse having the most name recognition being Commissioner. Best known for being on the Road to the Derby trail in 2014, Commissioner never rose to the level of being a true Derby contender after a sixth place finish in the Arkansas Derby but was beaten a head when second to Tonalist in the Belmont Stakes. Since then he has won two of six including the Pimlico Special Stakes in May but enters this race off two disappointing efforts. Horses with better recent form include Majestic Harbor and Neck 'n Neck, recently second and third, respectively, in the Marathon Stakes last month. Mister Mardi Gras finished second in last year's Gold Cup but earned his last win in June of 2014. On the other end of the competitive form spectrum is Valiant City, riding a three-race winning streak and hoping to do well in his first try in a graded stakes race.
Valiant City lost his first three starts of 2014 but has won three in a row since, with 112, 104 and 106 Equibase Speed Figures. He gets a ground saving inside post that, when combined with his close-up early running style, suggests he will be in the top three, if not on the lead, from the start. Jockey Chris Emigh has been in the saddle for his last six victories and certainly gets along with the horse wonderfully. Having put in two very sharp recent workouts over the track that demonstrate he is in top physical condition, Valiant City appears capable of continuing his winning ways.
Neck 'n Neck won the Greenwood Cup in September, at the marathon distance of 1 ½ miles and has finished second and third since, most recently in the Marathon Stakes. His last three speed figures (108, 110 and 110) have been very consistent but with a record of 1-3-4 in 11 races this year we should be concerned about his willingness to win.
Majestic Harbor won the Gold Cup at Santa Anita in June 2014, then went on a losing streak that ended this past April. He won again the same month but has lost five in a row since then. However, his last two efforts, when second in the Greenwood Cup and in the Marathon, earned 108 and 111 figures that if repeated could help him to return to graded stakes winning form considering most of the rest of this field aren't proven in graded stakes company or nearly as fast.
MAJESTIC HARBOR AFTER THE GOLD CUP AT SANTA ANITA

Photo by Benoit Photos
As stated in the opening paragraph, I'm taking a stand against likely betting favorite Commissioner, who finished sixth of seven in June in the Stephen Foster Handicap when well bet (3/1) and who didn't redeem himself one bit when fourth in the Fayette Stakes last month. He did earn a 111 figure winning the Pimlico Special in May and repeating that kind of effort would help him be competitive but even if he does run that well he's no standout and at low odds I'll root for others for a profit.
The rest of the Hawthorne Gold Cup Handicap field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Fordubai (113), Lashad (95), Mister Mardi Gras (109) and Street Spice (98).
My Selections:
Valiant City
Neck 'n Neck
Majestic Harbor
$250,000 Hawthorne Gold CupSaturday, Hawthorne, Race 8, Post Time 6:45 p.m. ET1 ¼ miles, dirt, 3-year-olds and up

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner

M/L

1

Majestic Harbor

Francisco Torres

Paul McGee

Gallant Stables

4/1

2

Lahshad

Julio Felix

Robert Dobbs Jr.

Law Dog Stables

20/1

3

Valiant City

Chris Emigh

Scott Becker

William Stiritz

6/1

4

Neck 'n Neck

Chris Landeros

Ian Wilkes

Waldorf Racing Stables

7/2

5

Fordubai

Edgar Perez

Greg Geier

Jim Tafel

12/1

6

Mister Mardi Gras

E.T. Baird

Chris Block

Lothenbach Stables

8/1

7

Commissioner

Florent Geroux

Todd Pletcher

WinStar Farm

9/5

8

Street Spice

Tim Thornton

Greg Geier

Jim Tafel

15/1