Betting the Kentucky Jockey Club On a Budget
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Annual Report looks like a good choice to win the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. (Photo by NYRA/Coglinese Photos)
The Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs is another 2-year-old showcase, with implications on the Road to the 2016 Kentucky Derby. The winner secures 10 Kentucky Derby qualifying points, which is just enough to spark rosy dreams for the winning connections. The 1 1/16-mile race attracted a full field of 14, including Breeders’ Cup Turf runner-up Airoforce.
Airoforce, undefeated in his two efforts prior to the Breeders’ Cup, is pegged as the 3-1 morning line favorite. Ordinarily, I’d say this is price is short for a horse of his caliber, but there’s an element of mystery at play. Airoforce has yet to make a start on dirt, which makes me hesitant to invest heavily in him. However, his recent worktab on the Churchill surface suggest he should not struggle with the adjustment. Plus, unlike many other horses in the field, he’s won at this distance. And his second in the Breeders’ Cup came at one mile, when he was charging home late. Ergo, at 3-1, he’s definitely worth keeping in the mix.
AIROFORCE WINNING THE BOURBON STAKES AT KEENELAND
Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
Outside of the favorite, I’m keen on Annual Report. He’s yet to stretch out past six furlongs, but trainer Kiaran McLaughlin would not ship him in, if he didn’t have a chance to snag a piece of the purse. A close look at his form suggest he’s a horse that will be suited to sit off the pace and his bullet posted at Belmont shows he has speed to burn. He might not quite have the conditioning to take the win, but Annual Report should get up in the money, sans a troubled trip.
The West Coast-based Mor Spirit is tough to ignore and serves as the race’s second morning line favorite. He arrives at Churchill out of a maiden special weight at Santa Anita in which he posted a 116 Equibase Speed Figure. That’s eye-popping, but I expect a bit of regression from an effort like that. That regression, plus the bump in class could render him a non-contender. While I don’t have a strong feeling that he has what he takes to win, that flash in his last race is too much to leave him off of my ticket.
It should be a wide open affair. The budget betting strategy below should render a nice payday, if Annual Report can steal a win. Best of luck!
$.50 Trifecta: 3, 11/ ALL/ 9, 3
$4 Win/ Place: 11
$200,000 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes
Saturday, Churchill Downs, Race 11, Post Time 5:35 p.m. ET
1 1/16 miles, dirt, 2-year-olds
PP
Horse
Jockey
Trainer
Owner
ML
1
Force It
Emmanuel Esquivel
Cheryl Winebaugh
Kenneth Fishbein
20/1
2
Nana Looch
Robby Albarado
Brendan Walsh
Crystal Lane Racing and Walsh Racing
50/1
3
Airoforce
Julien Leparoux
Mark Casse
John C. Oxley;
3/1
4
Gun Runner
Ricardo Santana, Jr.
Steven Asmussen
Winchell Thoroughbreds and Three Chimneys Farm
8/1
5
Perfect Saint
Shaun Bridgmohan
Dale Romans
Calumet Farm
30/1
6
Derby Express
Malcolm Franklin
Jeffrey Greenhill
Sherri Greenhill
15/1
7
Tom's Ready
Brian Hernandez Jr.
Dallas Stewart
GMB Racing
15/1
8
Discreetness
Jon Court
William Fires
Xpress Thoroughbreds
20/1
9
Mor Spirit
Martin Garcia
Bob Baffert
Michael Lund Petersen
7/2
10
Mo Tom
Corey J. Lanerie
Thomas Amoss
GMB Racing
8/1
11
Annual Report
Joe Bravo
Kiaran McLaughlin
Godolphin Racing
5/1
12
Rated R Superstar
Calvin Borel
Kenneth McPeek
Radar Racing
8/1
13
My Majestic Flight
Joe Johnson
Gary Hartlage
Patricia Blass
30/1
14
Uncle Jerry
Mitchell Murrill
Eoin Harty
Eoin Hardy, Robert Auerbach and William Yarmuthm
30/1