Derby Trail: Three Rising, Three Trending Down

Chitu punched his ticket to the Kentucky Derby with a win on March 22 at Sunland Park in the $800,000 Sunland Derby. (Coady Photography)
Below is a capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Triple Crown trail and three horses whose Derby chances are not quite as strong as they once were. This week's edition combines the previous two weekends of racing, since there really were not three of each from just the one major Kentucky Derby prep race
Road to the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard
Heating Up

1. Hoppertunity

Coady Photography

Hoppertunity earned a career-best 105 Equibase Speed Figure when he won the $600,000 Rebel Stakes on March 15 at Oaklawn Park. With only four lifetime starts, there is room for improvement with Hoppertunity and I really liked that he was willing to fight for the win in a roughly run stretch drive in the Rebel. It looks like either the Santa Anita Derby or the Arkansas Derby will be next for him. That might provide the necessary foundation to overcome the fact that he did not race as a 2-year-old — Apollo in 1882 is the only horse to win the Kentucky Derby after not racing at two. Another prep race also could take too much out of him that close to his main target: the Kentucky Derby on May 3. It’s a tough call for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert.

2. Chitu

Coady Photography

Chitu, like Hoppertunity, was very impressive in his most recent Kentucky Derby prep race. Chitu won the $800,000 Sunland Derby by 2 ¼ lengths as the 1.90-to-1 favorite and earned a similar 103 Equibase Speed Figure. They both have four career races, but Chitu made his first start in December while Hoppertunity didn’t start until January, so only Chitu is a real Derby threat because of Apollo’s curse, right? Wait, what? That makes about as much sense as Calculus. The reality is that Chitu punched his ticket to the Derby in the Sunland Derby and he looks like an extremely talented horse. The reason why Hoppertunity beat him out for the top spot here is because I prefer the way that Hoppertunity finished his race. Chitu looked a bit gassed in the final furlong, so another eighth of a mile in the Derby could be a big problem. But as we’ve seen in recent years, talent can allow a horse to achieve great things, and Chitu clearly has plenty of natural ability.

3. We Miss Artie

John Engelhardt/Pat Lang Photography

We Miss Artie is a multiple graded stakes winner on synthetic surfaces, stakes-placed on grass and winless in three races on dirt. This Artie Schiller colt proved again when winning the Grade 3 Spiral Stakes on March 22 that he is a very nice 3-year-old with some stamina in his pedigree. But it’s fair to wonder if he can perform at an elite level on dirt, which he would have to do to be a real threat in the Kentucky Derby. I have my doubts, but Churchill Downs has a reputation as being one of the more receptive dirt tracks for horses switching over from turf or synthetic races. One need look back only to 2011 when Animal Kingdom completed the synthetic-to-dirt Spiral-Derby double.

Cooling Off

1.Tamarando

Vasser Photography  

I wrote a few months back in my Making the Grade column on Tamarando, “I’m still not entirely sure what to make of Tamarando, but it looks like he’s here to stay on the Derby trail.” Looking back, the first part of that is correct. Tamarando remains an enigma to me. Every time I overlook him, he runs a big race and when I think he’ll be tough to beat, he runs a clunker like he did on March 22 in the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park. He finished eighth as the 2.30-to-1 favorite in a race I expected him to win. Now Tamarando is on the outside looking in with only 12 points (21st overall with four major prep races remaining) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard.

2. Kobe's Back

Benoit Photo

I never really bought in to Kobe’s Back as a real Kentucky Derby contender, but his San Vicente Stakes win was extremely impressive and I started to think, “well, maybe.” A dud in the Rebel Stakes as the 3.20-to-1 third betting choice means my initial instincts we very likely correct. Kobe’s Back is probably a very good sprinter and there’s nothing wrong with that. He’ll probably win quite a few graded stakes and bankroll some serious lettuce, but a Derby horse he ain’t.

3. Honor Code 

Eclipse Sportswire

This one feels lousy. He was my favorite 3-year-old in this crop, by far, and he’s sired by A.P. Indy, one of my all-time favorites on the racetrack and as a stallion. I love that Honor Code runs just like him with his head low, but alas Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey detected an injury and he will be given 60 days of rest to recover. The great news is we’ll get to see him race again, and I’ll be very much looking forward to seeing this well-bred colt in the summer.

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Curry's Derby Top 10

1. Candy Boy 

With many big-name defections, one of a few left I could see winning Derby.

2. Cairo Prince

Interested to see how he performs in Florida Derby off long layoff.

3. California Chrome   

He's flashy, fast and talented but can he excel at 1 1/4 miles?

4. Social Inclusion

Zero Derby points but one dazzling win over highly regarded Honor Code.

5. Samraat

All he does is catch touchdwons, wait that was Chris Carter. All he does is win.

6. Intense Holiday

Gut feeling tels me he will be flying late on May 3 in Derby stretch.

7. Hoppertunity 

Fast enough with room to improve and some pedigree, too. Intrigued. 

8. General a Rod

Can't jump off his bandwagon now. Tall task, though, in Florida Derby.

9. Conquest Titan

Guessing he just didn't care for the track in Tampa Bay Derby.

10. Chitu

Sunland Derby was plenty fast, but he was crawling through the final furlong.

Five on the bubble: Tapiture, Ring Weekend, Bayern, Constitution, Rise Up, We Miss Artie

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Racing Terms
Allowance race – A race for which the racing secretary drafts certain conditions to determine weights to be carried based on the horse’s age, sex and/or past performance.
Also-eligible – A horse officially entered for a race, but not permitted to start unless the field is reduced by scratches below a specified number.
Apprentice – A rider who has not ridden a certain number of winners within a specified period of time. Also known as a “bug,” from the asterisk used to denote the weight allowance such riders receive.
Blinkers – A cup-shaped device that limits a horse’s vision. Blinkers, often used to try to improve a horse’s focus, come in a variety of sizes and shapes to allow as little or as much vision as the trainer feels is necessary.
Bullet – The fastest workout of the day at a track at a particular distance.
Claiming race – A race in which each horse entered is eligible to be purchased at a set price.
Closer – A horse that runs best in the latter part of the race, coming from off the pace.
Connections – Persons identified with a horse, such as owner, trainer, jockey and stable employees.
Disqualification – Change in order of finish by stewards for an infraction of the rules.
Dam – The mother of a horse.
Entry – Two or more horses with common ownership that are paired as a single betting unit in one race.
Front-runner – A horse whose running style is to attempt to get on or near the lead at the start of the race and to continue there as long as possible.
Furlong – An eighth of a mile.
Graded race – A non-restricted race with added money or guaranteed purse value of $100,000 or more which has been run at least twice under similar conditions and on the same surface and has been assigned graded status for the year contested by the American Graded Stakes Committee.
Handicap – This race type refers to a race where the weights are assigned by the track’s racing secretary or handicapper based upon past performances.
Length – A measurement approximating the length of a horse, used to denote distance between horses in a race.
Off track – A track that has a wet surface and isn’t labeled as “fast”.
Pacesetter – The horse that is running in front (on the lead).
Past performances – A horse’s racing record, earnings, bloodlines and other data, presented in composite form.
Prep – A workout (or race) used to prepare a horse for a future engagement.
Post Parade – Horses going from paddock to starting gate past the stands. The post parade provides spectators with a chance to get a final look at the horse before the race.
Post Position – Position of stall in starting gate from which a horse begins a race.
Rabbit – A speed horse running as an entry with another, usually a come-from-behind horse. The rabbit is expected to set a fast pace to help the chances of its stablemate.
Rank – A horse that refuses to settle under a jockey’s handling in a race, running in a headstrong manner without respect to pace.
Scratch – To be taken out of a race before it starts.
Silks – Jacket and cap worn by jockeys.
Sire – Father of a foal.
Stakes – A race for which the owner usually must pay a fee to run a horse. The fees can be for nominating, maintaining eligibility, entering and starting, to which the track adds more money to make up the total purse. Some stakes races are by invitation and require no payment or fee.