Tackling the Louisiana Derby on a $20 budget

Intense Holiday won the Risen Star Stakes at this track in his last start (Photo by Lou Hodges).
First raced in 1894 as the Crescent City Derby, the Louisiana Derby will be held for the 101st time this week. While only two Louisiana Derby winners and three participants have gone on to win the garland of roses on the first Saturday in May - Black Gold (1924), Grindstone (1996) and Funny Cide (2003) - that doesn’t take away from it’s significance on the road to the Kentucky Derby.
The $1-million Louisiana Derby is one of seven prep races worth 100-40-20-10 points to the first four horses to cross the finish line. Run at 1 1/8 miles (9 furlongs) at Fair Grounds in New Orleans, La., this Grade 2 dirt race is one of the most significant Kentucky Derby prep races.
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At a young age, I was taught “big trainers, big jockeys, big days” and that’s what you’ve got with Intense Holiday. The Todd Pletcher-Mike Smith duo is notable and this horse has run in five consecutive graded races. He picks up six additional pounds and draws the always-tricky rail. The biggest question is: Is he bet-able or beat-able? I’m going to go with the latter – this is the horse I want to try to beat to cash a nice ticket.
King Cyrus is a tricky one. He arguably has the best breeding for the distance - his sire Bellamy Road is most notable for winning the 2005 Wood Memorial Stakes by more than 17 lengths and his dam is by Empire Maker, best known for winning the 2003 Belmont Stakes.  Trained by Pletcher, this horse has consistently been wide in all of his starts, and I think being on the inside he’ll save some ground. I’m not confident he can win it, but I think he may be useful on some exotic tickets.
I’m going to pass on Louies Flower. He threw an absolute clunker in his most recent start at Oaklawn Park and seems outclassed with this bunch.
Flat Gone, the longest morning line at 50-to-1 odds, has the Cajun connection here with the Keith and Kent Desormeaux trainer-jockey brother duo. I think they’re asking too much of this horse in his second start as a 3-year-old, especially after his well-beaten eighth-place finish in the Southwest Stakes. Not today.
Gold Hawk seems to be a bit of a head case. The last two times he was hard to load into the starting gate and he’ll have to show improved maturity before I invest in him.
GOLD HAWK WINNING HIS MAIDEN LAST NOVEMBER AT CHURCHILL DOWNS

Photo by Melissa Bauer-Herzog
Vicar’s in Trouble has top connections all around here with owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey, jockey Rosie Napravnik and trainer Mike Maker. He’s a local horse who ran a decent third in the Risen Star Stakes despite running extremely wide around both turns and being stranded on the far outside in the 13 post position. He has a much better post and a shift in weight for the Louisiana Derby. I think he should be around at the end – definitely a horse for a course.
Commanding Curve is a horse who draws a better post position this time around after rallying mildly last time. He looked like a horse who needed a race and is bred for the added distance here. Could this second start off of a long layoff be the one? If any horse is my longshot pick, this is the one.
Rise Up might do just that. This horse has been training at Fair Grounds since November and had a sharp workout last Saturday. He looks to be the main speed and he should be able to handle the speed drawn to his outside. He’s far and away the leading money earner in the field (thanks in large part to winning the Delta Downs Jackpot last year) and now they’re adding blinkers. Let’s watch the tote board on this one and keep him in the mix.
RISE UP WINNING THE DELTA DOWNS JACKPOT

Photo by Coady Photography
In Trouble - and this field may be! Considering his past runs in New York, having In Trouble in this race will be a great way to compare more possible Derby horses. He ran his heart out in the Gotham Stakes off a six-month layoff and was extremely game the whole way. He lost that thrilling finish by a half-length. My biggest concern is this distance. Out of the whole field, he is probably the least bred for distance races, but I think he’ll still be competitive.
Last and certainly not least, we have Albano. He looks to be the other “horse for a course,” with his last four races, all at Fair Grounds, resulting in three wins and a second. He led from start nearly to finish in the Risen Star before losing by a scant nose. He goes from being alone on the lead to facing several probable early challenges in this race that could pose a problem, but his biggest disadvantage is going to be the far outside post. I have to mention that trainer Larry Jones’ stats show that he’s winning almost 30% of his races and an amazing 25% in graded stakes. Use in exotics.
Vic’s Picks:
Selections: #6 Vicar’s In Trouble, #8 Rise Up, #1 Intense Holiday, #7 Commanding Curve
Here’s three ways to spend your Jackson, feel free to mix and match:
Strategy 1:  $4 exacta box 6,8 = $8 and $2 exacta box 1, 7, 8 = $12
Strategy 2:  $2 trifecta part wheel 6 with 1,7,8 with 1,7,8= $12
$1 trifecta part wheel 8 with 1,6,7 with 1,6,7 = $6
$1 straight trifecta 7/6/1 = $1
$1 straight trifecta 7/1/6 = $1
Strategy 3: $10 win-place on #6 Vicar’s in Trouble – “safe bet”
Make sure to watch the Louisiana Derby on NBC Sports Network as part of NBC’s ‘Road to the Kentucky Derby’ broadcast. First post time is 1:30 p.m. ET and post time for the Louisiana Derby is 7:10 p.m. ET
And as they say in the Hunger Games “May the odds be ever in your favor,” and yes, I mean that quite literally.
$1 million Louisiana Derby
Race 11, Fair Grounds, Saturday, Post Time 7:10 P.M. ET on NBCSports
1 1/8 miles on dirt for 3-year-olds 

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

1

Intense Holiday (KY)

Mike Smith

Todd Pletcher

2

King Cyrus (KY)

James Graham

Todd Pletcher

3

Louies Flower (FL)

Miguel Mena

Bret Calhoun

4

Flat Gone (KY)

Kent Desormeaux

Keith Desormeaux

5

Gold Hawk (KY)

Shaun Bridgmohan

Steve Asmussen

6

Vicar's in Trouble (LA)

Rosie Napravnik

Mike Maker

7

Commanding Curve (KY)

Robby Albarado

Dallas Stewart

8

Rise Up (KY)

Gerard Melancon

Tom Amoss

9

In Trouble (KY)

Joe Rocco Jr.

Tony Dutrow

10

Albano (KY)

Kerwin Clark

Larry Jones

All assigned 122 pounds.
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