Tip of the Week: If At First You Don’t Succeed

Photo by Penelope P. Miller/America's Best Racing
Secretariat and American Pharoah both were Triple Crown winners and neither one of them was victorious in their career debut.
In fact, neither of them even finished in the money in that very first start.
That alone should explain why it’s risky to put too much stock into a horse’s initial start.
All in all, it’s a common occurrence to see horses rebound from a weak first start, as evidenced recently by Dream It Again in the fourth race at Churchill Downs on Nov. 27.
In his Sept. 18 career debut at the Louisville track, Dream It Again showed little in finishing 10th, beaten 24 ¾ lengths in a six-furlong maiden special weight test at 6-1 odds.
Taking into consideration the odds, there were clearly expectations that the son of Awesome Again had some ability and could be a factor in the race, but none of that materialized.
After such a weak effort, it was hardly surprising that Dream It Again was shipped to Indiana Grand for his next race on Oct. 13. What might have caught some people off-guard was that when Dream It Again was entered in a maiden special weight race around two turns he came to life. Much closer to the lead throughout than he was in a sprint, Dream It Again wound up third, beaten by three lengths at 7-1 odds.
The following month, Dream It Again returned to Churchill Downs where he was entered in another two-turn test, this one at a mile and an eighth.
While there was reason enough to wonder if easier competition could explain away Dream It Again’s improved effort at Indiana Grand, there were two significant changes from his previous effort at Churchill Downs that bode well for his chances in the Nov. 27 race.
For one, there was the stretchout to two turns, which might have brought out the best in the colt. Then trainer Steve Margolis arranged for Corey Lanerie, Churchill Downs’ leading rider, to be aboard Dream It Again, who drew the rail.
With a rider like Lanerie in the saddle and the prospect of a ground-saving trip, it was quite reasonable expect a solid effort from Dream It Again, a point that made sense to the oddsmaker who tabbed Dream It Again as a 5-2 morning-line favorite.
The wagering public also bought in as they sent Dream It Again off as a $2.40-to-1 favorite and they were spot on as the 3-year-old romped by 7 ¾ lengths, paying $6.80 to win and topping an $87.60 exacta.
THE LESSON: Forgiving a poor first start and placing faith in an improved second start can have its benefits, provided there’s also some compelling additional evidence such as a positive jockey switch or a switch from a sprint to route.