Hot List Graded Stakes Review: Florida Derby

Stretch run from the Florida Derby on March 29 at Gulfstream Park. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
By Bill Cloutier 
Constitution hopes to follow the same Kentucky Derby path that Orb did last year, winning the Florida Derby and then capturing the run for the roses five weeks later.
The 3-year-old, Todd Pletcher-trained colt captured the $1 million Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park on Saturday by a neck over front-running Wildcat Red.
Combining a bit of racing luck with the efforts of sizzling jockey Javier Castellano, Constitution got through on the rail as the duo turned for home and outdueled a gritty Wildcat Red to the finish line. Castellano took advantage of a narrow gap on the rail and a mistake by Wildcat Red’s jockey, John Velazquez.
Constitution, who paid $8.60 to win, broke well and was ready run but Castellano prevented him from battling for the lead, leaving Wildcat Red alone to set the pace. Wildcat Red set decent, but not overly fast fractions, leaving him plenty of energy for the stretch run. Set down for the drive, however, Wildcat Red couldn't hold off the charge of Constitution, who in his third career start nabbed the all-important 100 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard to assure a berth in the first jewel of the Triple Crown.
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The same can't be said for the even-money favorite Cairo Prince, who had no excuse. Cairo Prince loomed large on the final turn and was in a good spot heading for home, but he proved no match for the top-three finishers. Still, Cairo Prince earned 10 qualifying points giving him 24 points for the season which could be enough to earn him a spot in the Derby field.
Cairo Prince hadn't run since the Grade 2 Holy Bull Stakes on Jan. 25, and he certainly didn't appear to be sharp while finishing 1 ½ lengths behind third-place finisher General a Rod.
None of the runners earned Hot List honors, which isn't to say they won't be a factor in the Derby. It will, however, drop Cairo Prince from the top of many experts’ Derby rankings.
Florida Derby Late Wagering Report

Horse

Odds 3 min. to post

Final Odds

1. Wildcat Red

4-to-1

7-to-2

2. Matador

25-to-1

26-to-1

3. Cairo Prince

Even

6-to-5

4. Constitution

5-to-2

3-to-1

5. East Hall

60-to-1

68-to-1

6. General a Rod

5-to-1

9-to-2

7. Allstar

70-to-1

82-to-1

8. Spot

9-to-1

10-to-1

Hot List results from previous stakes races:
3/13 Viramundo (C) 1st at $3.60 
3/8 Will Take Charge (A) 2nd at 3-2 
The Hot List, founded by turf writer/handicapper Bob Ehalt in 2011, blends a detailed analysis of a race with late wagering trends to pick out the horses with the best chance of running a winning race in their next start.
Hot List horses are rated in four lettered categories:
A: A preferred horse to watch off his effort in the race
B: A secondary horse to watch off his effort in the race
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final minutes of wagering and finished 1st through 3rd 
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final minutes of wagering and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more. 
For questions on the Hot List, email: nyhotlist@gmail.com