Urlacher Could Upset Toews On Ice in Los Alamitos Futurity

Toews On Ice (pictured winning the Bob Hope Stakes) could be upset by Urlacher in Saturday's Los Alamitos Futurity. (Photo by Benoit Photo)
The Grade 1, $350,000 Los Alamitos Futurity at Los Alamitos Race Course is a significant event on the early Road to the 2016 Kentucky Derby, as the top four finishers earn points towards starting in the spring classic as well as stamp their names as those to follow going forward. With the past two editions being won by powerhouses Shared Belief (2013) and Dortmund (2014), this year's running promises similar excitement.
Leading the field is Toews On Ice, a Bob Baffert trainee who will be trying two turns for the first time but who is riding a three-race stakes winning streak including the Grade 3 Bob Hope Stakes last month. Mor Spirit also comes from the Baffert shedrow and enters the race off a runner-up effort in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, won by the more accomplished Airoforce. Bob Hope third place finisher I'malreadythere will try to improve, as will Grade 3 Cecil B DeMille Stakes third place finisher Frank Conversation. Hollywood Don won the Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes in September but is winless in two races since. Then there's the pair of Sorryaboutnothing and Urlacher, who finished second and first, respectively, in a highly rated maiden race last month only to then have their order changed by the stewards.
Main contenders: Urlacher is still a maiden (non-winner) but there are many reasons to like his chances to post the upset in the Los Alamitos Futurity. Urlacher ran okay in the first two races of his career, both sprints, finishing second to a seven-length winner then finishing third with a 91 Equibase Speed Figure. When sent around two turns for the first time after that, Urlacher really improved and although second (to Mor Spirit), he improved to a 109 figure. As the heavy favorite for his most recent start, Urlacher stalked in second for the first half-mile and then battled head-to-head before drawing off in the stretch. However, in deep stretch he got a little weary and drifted into the path of another horse, so although his neck was in front at the finish he was disqualified and place second. If he can mind his manners Saturday while saving ground from the rail, I believe Urlacher can run his best race to date and break his maiden in a stakes race.
Mor Spirit has done nothing wrong in three career starts, with one win and two runner-up efforts. He improved markedly off a runner-up debut when stretched out to two turns in October, posting an easy four-length win with a 116 figure. Sent to Kentucky for the important Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last month, Mor Spirit made the lead with a quarter of a mile to go but was passed shortly thereafter by the more accomplished Airoforce, gamely holding off the third-place finisher by a head on the wire. Now back at trainer Baffert's home base and with a sharp half-mile workout as his most recent, Mor Spirit certainly can win if he comes anywhere close to repeating his Oct. 23 effort.
Sorryaboutnothing finished a non-descript fourth of seven in his career debut on Nov. 7 in a sprint but showed a lot of ability when sent around two turns for the first time eight days later, rallying from fourth of nine in the early stages to be beaten a neck on the wire by Urlacher, then placed first by the stewards who ruled interference cost him the win. Although the 95 figure earned is far from the 109 and 116 best of the other two main contenders, two year olds can improve markedly from one race to the next so Sorryaboutnothing has every right to take a big step forward to win this race.
About the rest – Toews On Ice has earned 101, 101 and 102 figures winning three stakes in a row, all on dirt but all around one turn. His breeding for a route isn't as strong as many of the others and his recent six furlong workout in 1:15 was very slow for a horse that has worked very fast in the past and one from the Baffert barn, so I'm taking a wait-and-see approach. Hollywood Don (best figure: 102 on turf), Frank Conversation (103 best figure) and I'malreadythere (94 best) have run 13 races combined but only four times on dirt and those were their poorest efforts.
My selections:UrlacherMor SpiritSorryaboutnothing

$350,000 Los Alamitos FuturitySaturday, Race 8, Los Alamitos Race Course, 7 p.m. ET1 1/16 miles, dirt, 2-year-olds

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner

Odds

1

Urlacher

James Graham

Eoin Harty

Godolphin Racing

TBD

2

Frank Conversation

Mario Gutierrez

Doug O'Neill

Reddam Racing

TBD

3

Hollywood Don

Victor Espinoza

Peter Miller

Rockingham Ranch

TBD

4

Toews On Ice

Martin Garcia

Bob Baffert

Pegram, Watson or Weitman

TBD

5

Mor Spirit

Gary Stevens

Bob Baffert 

Michael Lund Peterson

TBD

6

Sorryaboutnothing

Rafael Bejarano

Doug O'Neill

Fog City Stable

TBD

7

I'malreadythere

Tyler Baze

Jerry Hollendorfer

Melen or Robertson or Taub, et al

TBD