Kentucky Derby Chase Begins with Jerome Stakes

Bird of Trey winning the Pennylvania Nursery Stakes. (Photo by Taylor Ejdys/EQUI-PHOTO)
The 146th running of the Grade 3, $200,000 Jerome Stakes is the first Road to the Kentucky Derby prep race of 2016 and brings together a talented field of nine, with six of them coming off wins. Two of those earned their recent victories in stakes – Bird of Trey and Vorticity. However, Flexibility may have been facing tougher opponents in his most recent start when second in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes. Condo King and King Kranz were separated by a neck when first and second, respectively, in a fast maiden race last month and both are racing around two turns for the first time.
Bird of Trey won the Pennsylvania Nursery Stakes last month about as easily as a horse can win, drawing off to a seven and one-half length win in hand and earning a career best and field-high 107 Equibase Speed Figure in the process. Bird of Trey has improved his figure in every start since his July debut and is bred to run as well or better around two turns so the distance should not be an issue. His last workout before leaving his home base in Pennsylvania was the second best of 22 on the day for a half-mile, which demonstrates Bird of Trey is still in great physical condition. As such, Bird of Trey appears capable of winning his second stakes race in a row and having his name mentioned as contender on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
Vorticity actually ran the fastest race of his career in his second lifetime start on November 8, when breaking his maiden on the main track at Aqueduct and earning a 98 figure. Although he regressed to a 94 figure in his most recent race when winning the Marylander Stakes, he showed maturity in coming from of the pace. Being a son of Distorted Humor, Vorticity is another likely to stretch out and run as well as he has in shorter races, making him a strong contender in this year's Jerome Stakes.
VORTICITY

Photo by NYRA/Coglinese
Flexibility may be favored by bettors off his runner-up finish behind multiple stakes winner Mohaymen in the Remsen Stakes. Although the 96 figure certainly is competitive with most of these if they repeat their best efforts, I am concerned about his ability to finish strongly as he ran evenly or lost ground in the last eighth of a mile in both of those races. On the other hand, Condo King and King Kranz are stretching out after running fast in sprints so the early pace could be very fast and help Flexibility to put in a big late kick good enough to win.
The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Condo King (102), Donegal Moon (86), In Equality (91), King Kranz (101), Let Me Go First (88) and Silent Assassin (78). 
My Selections:
Bird of Trey
Vorticity
Flexibility
$200,000 Jerome Stakes
Race 8 at Aqueduct
Race 8, Aqueduct, Saturday, Post Time 3:50 p.m. ET
One mile and seventy yards, dirt, 3-year-olds

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner

1

Silent Assassin

Angel Arroyo

Nick. Zito

Southwest Capital Racing

2

In Equality

Junior Alvarado

Leah Gyarmati

Treadway Racing Stable; 

3

Donegal Moon

Manuel Franco

Todd A. Pletcher

Donegal Racing;

4

Flexibility

Irad Ortiz Jr,

 Chad Brown

Klaravich Stables Inc. and William Lawrence

5

Vorticity

Jose L. Ortiz

James Lawrence II

Matthew Schera

6

Bird of Trey

Kendrick Carmouche

John Servis

JRita Young Thoroughbreds

7

Condo King

Ruben Silvera

 Rudy Rodriguez

Michael Dubb, Bethlehem Stables and The Elkstone Group

8

King Kranz

Cornelio Velasquez

John Terranova II

Zayat Stables

9

Let Me Go First

Roberto Rosado

Blane Servis

Kendall Hansen