Eyeing an Arkansas Derby Score on $20 budget
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Description:
Ride On Curlin, above winning an allowance race at Oaklawn Park in January, has a chance to win at a nice price on Saturday in the Arkansas Derby. (Coady Photography)
Hot Springs, Ark., is the place to be on Saturday afternoon as tens of thousands of racing fans will line Central Ave. and enter Oaklawn Park for the 78th running of the Arkansas Derby.
We are only three weeks away from the first Saturday in May, and most of the entrants in this year's Arkansas Derby are still in search of qualifying points for the Run for the Roses. At this point, only those in the Tapiture camp can feel confident that their colt will be running in the Kentucky Derby on May 3.
Let's break down the race and see if we can't score in the Arkansas Derby on a $20 budget!
Three horses (Tapiture, Strong Mandate, and Ride On Curlin) will be meeting for the third consecutive time on Saturday afternoon; these three colts previously met in the Southwest Stakes (Feb. 17) and the Rebel Stakes (March 15) at Oaklawn. In the Southwest, Tapiture was dominant in winning by 4 ¼ lengths, but it should be noted that both Strong Mandate and Ride On Curlin were extremely wide, particularly on the first turn, in that race.
Four weeks later in the Rebel, which was contested on a wet-fast track, these three colts finished 2-3-4 behind Hoppertunity, who was second in last week's Santa Anita Derby. The Rebel was a race that featured a lot of bumping in the stretch and a lengthy stewards’ inquiry but no changes were made to the order of finish.
The horse's name that is on everyone's lips this week is Bayern. Bayern has been nothing short of sensational in his two victories, a maiden and a first-level allowance race that both came at Santa Anita as the odds-on favorite. Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert had this one geared up for the San Felipe Stakes on March 8 in California - a race ultimately won by early Kentucky Derby favorite California Chrome - but Bayern had to be scratched due to a foot bruise. It was reported that Bayern lost three days of training due to the bruise, but he has been training lights out since the injury. Hall of Famer Gary Stevens will travel to Hot Springs for the mount.
BAYERN
Benoit Photo
Nevertheless, questions about Bayern's fitness level (he has missed training and only has two starts under his belt), class (this will be his first stakes race), and ability to ship (he has walked to the paddock directly out of his home stall in his first two starts) all must be answered on Saturday.
Commissioner and Conquest Titan both will be making their third starts of the year, and both colts will also be running at their third different racetrack this year.
Commissioner was highly regarded after beating Top Billing in a Jan. 3 allowance race at Gulfstream. He was sent off at 7-to-2 odds in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes but never got involved. Commissioner subsequently finished third in the Sunland Derby on March 23. Commissioner does, however, own two wins at the Arkansas Derby distance of 1 1/8 miles. None of the other entrants in the race have ever been farther than 1 1/16 miles, and by virtue of entering this race Todd Pletcher obviously has not given up on this colt.
Conquest Titan finished second in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream behind Cairo Prince in January, and was sent off as the 5-to-2 favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby on March 8. Conquest Titan was down inside for most of the Tampa Bay Derby and never really showed any true late punch as the race was won in wire-to-wire fashion by Ring Weekend. Calvin Borel is no stranger to Oaklawn Park, and he takes the call on Conquest Titan in this year's Arkansas Derby.
Analysis:
In these final Kentucky Derby preps, I am not at all a fan of picking horses who already have their spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate sealed up. Tapiture will be making his third start of the season in the Arkansas Derby, and I'm fairly confident his connections have their eye on his fourth start as a 3-year-old. There is no way I'm picking a horse at roughly 2-to-1 who could be giving 75-80% of his all in a race, and that’s honestly what I think we’ll see out of Tapiture on Saturday.
There are so many questions about Bayern. Maybe he is a “freak,” but I'll have to see another dominant performance on Saturday before I start thinking of him as anything more than a horse that cleared his first allowance condition, over four competitors, no less, at Santa Anita. Only two starts under his belt; off eight weeks; shipping for the first time; missed training; never run in a stakes race … yet he will also be right around 2-to-1 on Saturday. Not my cup of tea.
I think Ride On Curlin may be the forgotten horse here. He was talented at two, has a win at Oaklawn, and was simply way too wide in the Southwest (particularly around the clubhouse turn) before running every step of the way in a hard-fought Rebel Stakes. I also think Commissioner is worth one more try - last year Todd Pletcher won this race with Overanalyze, who had also disappointed in his prior race, the Gotham, and I think some comparisons can be made between the those two horses.
Strategy 1:
$10 to win/place on Ride On Curlin (4)
Strategy 2:
$1 exacta: 4,6 with 3,4,6,7,8,9 ($10)
$1 exacta: 3,4,6,7,8,9 with 4,6 ($10)
$1 Million Arkansas Derby
Saturday, Oaklawn Park, Race 11, Post time 7:07 p.m. ET
3-year-olds, 1 1/8 miles on dirt
PP
Horse
Jockey
Weight
Trainer
Odds
1
Danza
Joe Bravo
118
Todd Pletcher
15/1
2
Knock Em Flat
Luis Quinonez
118
Donnie Von Hemel
20/1
3
Tapiture
Joel Rosario
122
Steve Asmussen
9/5
4
Ride On Curlin
Jon Court
118
William Gowan
12/1
5
Thundergram
Noberto Arroyo Jr.
118
Mark Casse
30/1
6
Commissioner
Mike Smith
118
Todd Pletcher
8/1
7
Conquest Titan
Calvin Borel
122
Mark Casse
10/1
8
Bayern
Gary Stevens
118
Bob Baffert
2/1
9
Strong Mandate
Luis Saez
122
D. Wayne Lukas
9/2