Your Pigskins and Ponies Picks for Jan. 9-11

Welcome to ABR’s Pigskins and Ponies column, where winners play!
Horse racing is my means to an end, and I love the sport like no other, but I admit it, like most of you, on a Sunday afternoon in the fall, it’s hard to pull me away from my couch … and NFL RedZone.
I have a wanted sign in Las Vegas and am feared by fantasy football mavens nationwide, but when it comes to the college game, I choose to punt.
That’s where Derek Cooley comes in. The dude is a loaded gun of university knowledge.
Let’s kick off the football, spring the horses from the gate and pad our bankrolls!
**Lines as of Wednesday night from scoresandodds.com**
College Pigskins – by Derek Cooley
It all comes down to this.
Some good, some bad in the final week of the Bowl season and that translated to a 6-6 record.
No matter what happens on Monday, it’s been a fun and profitable football season and I can’t wait to sink my teeth into some college hoops in a couple of weeks!
Pre-Bowl Best Bets: 4-3
Last Week: 6-6
Bowl Record - 18-22 (.45)
Season Total: 48-36-1 (.57)
CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
ALABAMA VS. CLEMSON
Glendale, Ariz.
LINE: ALABAMA FAVORED BY 7 POINTS
OVER/UNDER: 50.5 POINTS
All right folks, here we go.  It all comes down to this one ... the 14-0 and undisputed, undefeated number one team in the nation, the Clemson Tigers, facing the experienced heavyweight challenger, the number two team in the country, the Alabama Crimson Tide.
Clemson is coming off of a 37-17 victory over No. 4 Oklahoma, using a dominating 21-0 second half performance to put things away. Meanwhile, the Alabama Crimson Tide rolled over No. 3 Michigan State from the time Connor Cook threw that late red zone interception in the first half onward.
This national championship game has everything … I mean everything —
the fun-loving coach with his charismatic, undefeated team and the stoic, historic mainstay with the best coach in the game for years on end.
There are many things to watch in this game.  Many stories will be told during play.
I have some things to watch for, some keys for both sides and the ultimate difference in the game.
First, some things to keep an eye on:
1. Clemson's Defensive Stamina
Clemson had an outstanding second half against Oklahoma. They continued to get pressure on Baker Mayfield and, aided by a little bit of injury, shut down the vaunted rushing attack of the Sooners … all of this without Shaq Lawson. However, during the regular season, the Clemson Tigers were actually outscored in the fourth quarter, 99-90. That might be a product of having the lead or the defense wearing down.
2. Shaq Lawson's Health
Shaq Lawson's health is a major factor. Clemson thrives on getting pressure on the quarterback. They were able to wreak havoc on Baker Mayfield without Lawson, but they NEED him in this one against Jacob Coker.
3. Jacob Coker
Speaking of getting pressure on Jacob Coker, the Alabama senior quarterback will be spotlighted again in this one. If he is forced into action early, as was the game plan against Michigan State, he will be one of the biggest keys of this game. As we saw against the Spartans, who weren't going to be beat by Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry, Coker can rise to the occasion. He completed 25 of 30 passes in that game, supremely key and accurate.
4. Alabama's Experience
This is the aspect of the game in which Alabama has a substantial advantage. From its head coach, Nick Saban, to its senior quarterback's trials and tribulations throughout his career, to the loss in the semifinals last year to Ohio State ... this Alabama team knows what it takes to take this championship. Not that Clemson doesn't, but the bright lights will not affect the Crimson Tide.
Difference in the game:
Deshaun Watson and the Spread vs. Alabama defense
Alabama's defense was built to stop the pro-style, Michigan State offense in the semifinals ... but they may have some trouble versus the spread offense of Clemson, and the style of play that Clemson QB and Heisman runner-up Deshaun Watson brings to the field — particularly, Watson's ability to run. Just take a look at what Watson has done with his feet in big games:
Notre Dame: 16 carries - 93 yards - 1 TD
Florida State: 16 carries - 107 yards - 0 TD
South Carolina (rivalry): 21 carries - 114 yards - 3 TD
North Carolina (ACC Championship): 24 carries - 131 yards - 2 TD
Oklahoma (Semifinal): 24 carries - 145 yards - 1 TD
Watson has been deadly when escaping the pocket, and I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up the leading rusher not only for Clemson, but for the game. This is the reason for my pick against the spread, which is coming up next. Watson won't win the game by himself, but he will without a doubt keep it competitive.
Picks
Clemson +7 vs. Alabama
Total: OVER 50.5
Final Score:
Alabama - 30
Clemson - 24 
Pro Pigskins – by Joe Kristufek
Last Sunday had the potential to be profitable, but instead we fell just short.
On the plus side, the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles went over the number, while the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers stayed under.  
Surprisingly, the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons played some defense and the over was never in reach. The Chicago Bears/Detroit Lions stayed just under and, despite having their chances, the St. Louis Rams just couldn’t get past the San Francisco 49ers, which also cost us on the season win total.
Last week: 2-3
Season team win total over/under: 5-6
Overall Season Total: 52-51-4 (.505)
Super Bowl Futures
NFC -2.5 over AFC
Heading into the playoffs, I truly believe the three best teams reside in the NFC – the Carolina Panthers, Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals. With a return to health and with it top form, the New England Patriots are the most likely to emerge from the AFC, but several others are capable of getting hot and making a run.
Wild Card Playoffs
Saturday, Jan. 9
Houston Texans +3 vs. Kansas City Chiefs and UNDER 40
Let me start by saying that winning ten straight games is an amazing feat.
Now it’s time to poke holes.
Only two of the wins during the Chiefs streak came against playoff teams, but the Pittsburgh Steelers didn’t have Big Ben and, with five interceptions, Peyton Manning was at his absolute worst.
The Texans have a more modest three-game winning streak, giving up 10-6-6 points respectively. They have J.J. Watt on defense, DeAndre Hopkins on offense, they’re at home and they’re underdogs. I’m taking Houston straight up in a down in the dirt affair.
WATT COULD WREAK HAVOC ON THE CHIEFS

"JJ Watt" by Jeffrey Beall - Own work. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons.
Cincinnati Bengals +3 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Following a Week 16 loss to the lowly Ravens, the Steelers needed a win and a New York Jets loss to get into the playoffs. It happened, and now Pittsburgh enters the second season liberated while the Bengals are likely missing starting QB Andy Dalton and have the “can’t win in the playoffs” pressure squarely on their shoulder pads.
Advantage Steelers, right? No so fast …
Cincinnati won 16-10 in Pittsburgh earlier in the year, and Big Ben through three INTs that day. The Steelers running game is in a flux, the Bengals is not, and defense is on the side of the black and orange.
Sunday, Jan. 10
Seattle Seahawks -5 at Minnesota Vikings
By defeating the Packers last week at Lambeau Field, the Vikings got the division title and a home game. They also got a date with an angry, talented, determined and very smart Seahawks team.
Known for its defense, which has shown signs of being on top of its game in recent weeks, it’s Seattle’s offense that has starred in many of its recent games, and the ascension has been fueled by NOT having TE Jimmy Graham in the lineup and the emergence of rookie WR Tyler Lockett.
The Vikings are well coached and they’ve taken a nice step forward this year, but their offense simply can’t do enough to match strides with a Seahawks team that is once again a serious Super Bowl contender.  
Washington Redskins +1 vs. Green Bay Packers
If you watched these two teams played anonymously the last six weeks, you’d wonder why the road team is favored.
The Redskins come into this game with all the momentum and they’re hungry. They have a nice mix of veterans and young players and QB Kirk Cousins led the lead in completion percentage (70%).
The Packers have Aaron Rodgers, but their most productive WR, James Jones, was cut by two teams before returning to his comfort zone and RB Eddie Lacy hasn’t been himself all year.
KIRK COUSINS HAS PERFORMED WELL DOWN THE STRETCH

"Dolphins vs. Redskins 2015" by Keith Allison - Flickr. Licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 via Wikimedia Commons.
Ponies – by Joe Kristufek
Awesome Banner was amazing in the Hutcheson Stakes last week and he’s surely a 3-year-old to watch moving forward. Trainer Stanley Gold and jockey Javier Castellano both believe that he with stretch out successfully, so a route race on the road to the Kentucky Derby should be next on his agenda.
Auntie Joy had no excuse in the Ginger Brew Stakes, and I’m guessing by the way she backed out of it, something went array physically.
In the off the turf Bonpaw Stakes, Tanner’s Popsicle got cooked in a fast pace.
Last week (doubled up): 6-2-0-0 ($4 WPS * $36 wagered * $21.60 returned)
Season Total: 68-14-10-8 ($2 WPS * $408 wagered * $273.00 returned = $4.01)
Saturday, Jan. 9
Gulfstream Park – Hallandale, Fla.
Race 7 – Hal’s Hope Stakes (G3)
#3 Mshawish (morning-line odds, 8-5)
Highly accomplished in two-turn grass races across the globe, this newly turned 6-year-old tried dirt for the first time in career start number 21 last out, in of all places the Grade 1 Cigar Mile. He stalked and pounced his way into serious stretch contention, only to fall just short. One would think he’d be ever more comfortable this time around and with a plethora of speed signed on, the run of the race could fall into his lap.
MSHAWISH

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
Race 10 – Ft. Lauderdale Stakes (G2)
#4 Lukes Alley (morning-line odds, 20-1)
A beast on synthetics, this lightly raced 6-year-old has only tried grass twice. He broke his maiden in visually impressive fashion on turf in just his second career start and finished up the track in the Hawthorne Derby (G3) over a very boggy course two months later. He’s bred to mow the lawn and certainly deserves another chance on it at what should be a square price.
Santa Anita Park – Arcadia, Calif.
Race 6 - Sham Stakes (G3) – Kentucky Derby points race
#2 Dressed in Hermes (morning-line odds, 7-2)
On the surface, it doesn’t appear like the Santa Anita Derby winner is lurking amongst what appears to be a very average field. Our top pick has done some representative work on grass and the only dirt run was better than it looks on paper. It came in his career debut and he made a middle move in that sprint before finishing evenly behind Exaggerator, who is currently one of the major players of this crop.
Race 8 – San Pasqual Stakes (G2)
#5 Hoppertunity (morning-line odds, 5-2)
The defending champ hasn’t gotten his picture taken in eight races since, but off of three consecutive runner-up performances behind solid winners and sharp local workouts, he appears to be sitting on an overdue score.
HOPPERTUNITY

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire