Your Pigskins and Ponies Picks for Jan. 16-17

Welcome to ABR’s Pigskins and Ponies column, where winners play!
Horse racing is my means to an end, and I love the sport like no other, but I admit it, like most of you, on a Sunday afternoon in the fall, it’s hard to pull me away from my couch … and NFL RedZone.
I have a wanted sign in Las Vegas and am feared by fantasy football mavens nationwide, but when it comes to the college game, I choose to punt.
That’s where Derek Cooley comes in. The dude is a loaded gun of university knowledge.
Let’s kick off the football, spring the horses from the gate and pad our bankrolls!
**Lines as of Wednesday night from scoresandodds.com**
College Pigskins – by Derek Cooley
2015-16 Betting Year in Review 
Pre-Bowl Best Bets: 4-3
Last week: 2-0
Bowl Record: 20-22 (.476)
Season Total: 48-36-1 (.57)
Best Bet Season Total: 52-39-1 (.571)
Overall with Bowls: 68-58-1 (.539)
Those are the final numbers for this year in the world of college football betting.  
Started off pretty slow, had an actual winless week in there as well … which was immediately followed by an undefeated week. Go figure.
What did we learn this year? It’s really important to let teams tell you who they are. Watch them at home, watch them against bad competition, watch them on the road — these things seem really simple, but we must remember that 18- to 22-year-old’s are very unpredictable and can be affected by a multitude of extrapolating variables.
We had an outstanding finish to the regular season. We were in the green (won money overall) in every single week following our winless week. Sometimes, even in betting, it takes a spanking to wake one up. Just look at Alabama after the Ole Miss game (which, by the way, we correctly predicted).
Speaking of Alabama, we correctly predicted the over and the Clemson cover from the National Championship game. Yes, it was the absolute definition of a back-door cover, but come on guys, Clemson DESERVED to cover that spread with the way Deshaun Watson played. And the over? These two teams were way too dynamic for it to be a 24-20 slugfest ... points were going to be scored when you have Jacob Coker playing as well as he was coming into the game — although he did get a tad lucky finding O.J. Howard WIDE open on two touchdowns — Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry and the aforementioned DeShaun Watson of Clemson.
I would not be the least bit surprised if we have a rematch next year for the National Championship game. Deshaun Watson will be the easy front-runner (along with Leonard Fournette) for the Heisman Trophy. As for Alabama, remember the name Bo Scarbrough. He will be next year's Derrick Henry. ALSO, Calvin Ridley ... freshman. Marlon Humphrey ... freshman. Minkah Fitzpatrick ... freshman. Ronnie Harrison ... freshman. These are all players that played significant roles for the Crimson Tide. The team will lose its fair share as well, but they are reloading with the quickness.
The one team that can spoil the party, in my opinion: LSU.
Here’s to a great 2016 offseason and we will talk (football) again in August!
Pro Pigskins – by Joe Kristufek
Our opinions weren’t very good last week, but luckily we came out alive. The Houston Texans proved to be no match for the Kansas City Chiefs, but fortunately the game stayed under.
The Cincinnati Bungles, I mean Bengals, should have won, but instead found a very strange way to lose, but at least they covered.
The Seattle Seahawks didn’t cover, and they should have lost, and Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers carved up the Washington Redskins. 
Last week/playoffs: 2-3
Season team win total over/under: 5-6
Season Total: 52-51-4 (.505)
Divisional Playoffs
Saturday, Jan. 16
Kansas City Chiefs +5 at New England Patriots and UNDER 41.5
The Chiefs have forgotten how to lose and their defense is peaking, but this week obviously represents a much tougher task.
Tom Brady is a huge upgrade over Houston’s Brian Hoyer and the New England offense is getting healthier, but the Patriots running game is a big question and offensive line is going to face a stiff challenge in pass protection.
The Patriots defense is actually the team’s strong suit and it should be able to tame the Chiefs average offense. All that adds up to a close, low scoring affair.
Arizona Cardinals -7 vs. Green Bay Packers
The Cardinals didn’t end their season on a high note and the Packers are coming off a confidence-boosting playoff win, yet the home team is a touchdown favorite.
Arizona crushed Green Bay 38-8 in Week 16 and the game wasn’t nearly as close as the score. Aaron Rodgers was lucky to come out of that game alive.
How is the script going to change enough for the Packers to make it a game, let alone win? I just don’t see it.
CARSON PALMER SHOULD GUIDE THE CARDINALS TO A BIG OFFENSIVE DAY

"Carson Palmer 2014" by Greg Buch FFSwami.com - Flickr. Licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 via Wikimedia Commons.
Sunday, Jan. 17
Carolina Panthers -2.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks and UNDER 44
Even though they were verrrrrrrrrrrry lucky to win, the Seahawks escape from Minnesota shouldn’t be held against them. The game was played in arctic conditions, which surely cooled off the passing game that had been scorching hot for weeks.
Both teams will try to control ball and win the field-position battle, but I truly believe Carolina is a team of destiny and that they will get the job done, which probably means a cover.
Denver Broncos -7 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Let me start by saying that I highly doubt the Broncos can win the Super Bowl with Peyton Manning at the helm, but his mind should be able to overcome the lack of arm strength to take advantage of an iffy Pittsburgh secondary. Not to mention the fact that the Steelers offense, the running game in particular, didn’t play well at all last week against the Bungles, who handed them the win.
PAYTON MANNING AND THE BRONCOS FIGURE TO BE TOUGH SUNDAY

"Peyton Manning 2014" by Jeffrey Beall - Flickr. Licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 via Wikimedia Commons.
Ponies – by Joe Kristufek
Gulfstream was good to us last Saturday.
At fair odds of 2.20-1, lawnmower-turned-dirt-digger Mshawish got the job done in the Hal’s Hope Stakes, and in the Ft. Lauderdale Stakes, 8.40-1 shot Lukes Alley ran a solid second on grass.
In California, it was once again too little too late for Hoppertunity, who couldn’t quite catch California Chrome in the San Pasqual Stakes, while in the 3-year-old ranks, Dressed in Hermes turned out to be a no show for the Sham Stakes.
Last week (doubled up): 6-2-2-2 ($4 WPS * $36 wagered * $54.40 returned)
Season Total: 74-16-12-10 ($2 WPS * $444 wagered * $327.40 returned = $4.42)
Saturday, Jan. 16
Gulfstream Park – Hallandale, Fla.
Race 7 – Sunshine Millions Turf Sprint Stakes
#5 Pure Sensation (morning-line odds, 5-2)
Pinned down on the rail for the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, this classy gray broke a step slow and then never had a chance. Note that he defeated race winner Mongolian Saturday in their previous encounter. He’s trained sharply in the interim, is well-drawn midpack and, with his “A” game, the rest of these may be forced to run for minor awards.

Photo by Barbara Weidl/EQUI-PHOTO
Fair Grounds – New Orleans, La.
Race 9 – Silverbulletday Stakes
#2 Banner Waving (morning-line odds, 20-1)
This improving daughter of Speightstown proved to be no match for race favorite Stageplay at Keeneland Race Course back in October, but she appears to be a much better filly now than she was then. I find it interesting that, despite a very poor performance at Churchill Downs on Nov. 1, she was still bet down to the favorite’s role against nine opponents in her follow-up start at Fair Grounds. She ran to her 2-1 odds, winning in impressive fashion. Jockey Robby Albarado knows her like the back of his hand, she might relish the added distance, and the price will certainly be right.
Race 10 – Colonel E. R. Bradley Handicap (G3)
#8 Pumpkin Rumble (morning-line odds, 15-1)
This deep closer appears to be getting better with age. He showed a new dimension when racing closer to the early pace locally last time out and drew off to a visually impressive win. Florent Geroux bolts to ride the favorite Chocolate Ride, but strong finishing James Graham just might prove to be the lucky charm.
Race 11 – Lecomte Stakes (G3)
#7 Mo Tom (morning-line odds, 7-2) and #4 Z Royal (morning-line odds, 15-1)
Kentucky Derby points are on the line. The former is the horse to beat off a good third behind Airoforce and Mor Spirit, a pair of divisional leaders, in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs. The latter could be a live longshot for Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas. Note that he adds blinkers off his maiden-winning race and that Triple Crown connections — owner/breeder Zayat Stables and jockey Victor Espinoza — are teaming up.