Dan's Double: Weekend Winners for Jan. 23-24
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When it comes to making money when handicapping races and betting on horse racing, it’s all about picking winners. Dan Tordjman, America’s Best Racing’s New York correspondent, is one of the brightest young minds in the game.
Each Week, Tordjman – DanonymousMan to those who follow him on Twitter – will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Tordjman will keep track of his return on investment (ROI) throughout the year and, as a bonus, he will also provide picks for a selection of the key races on the Triple Crown trail and the road to the Breeders’ Cup.
Come back every week and be sure to follow Tordjman on Twitter.
Saturday, Jan. 23, Race 5, Gulfstream Park
#8 Air Squadron (8-1 ML): There’s always a risk involved in playing lower level claiming races like this one but there are a few basic truths known about horses at this class level. One guiding principal for me is that lower level claimers aren’t the best at passing other horses, so it stands to reason that if there’s a runaway speed horse, he or she will often never come back to the pack. That’s my thinking with Air Squadron. He doesn’t represent the lone speed in the race (#6 Endogeny has shown more early kick of late) but Air Squadron has flashed good early foot in earlier races at Gulfstream and his back-form over the track is generally strong. Tactically, he can sit just off of Endogeny breaking slightly to his outside and he should be right there late in the race. The horse goes out for trainer Oscar Gonzalez, who is 0-for-24 at the meet, but wins 28 percent of the time first off the claim.
Strategy on $10 Budget - $1 exacta box 6,8,10 ($6)
$2 win and place on #8 Air Squadron ($4)
Strategy on $25 Budget - $1 exacta box 2, 6, 8, 10 ($12)
$4 win, place and show on #8 Air Squadron ($12)
Strategy on $50 Budget - $1 trifecta 6,8 with 2,6,8,10 with 2,6,8,10 ($12)
$1 exacta box 2,6,8,10 ($12)
$.10 cent superfecta 2,8 with 2,6,8,10 with 2,6,8,10 with 1,2,3,4,6,8,9,10 ($6)
$10 win and place on #8 Air Squadron ($20)
Sunday, Jan. 24, Race 6, Gulfstream Park
#1 Myorion (Odds TBD): Unlike most of the horses in this field, Myorion is unexposed, having raced just once on the turf. That race, last out, was his best of four career races to date and he finished strongly, missing by just a length and a half when going seven furlongs. Here, going a little longer (a mile) and being able to save ground throughout with the rail draw, I think he’ll be formidable and the one to hold off late. Trainer David Kassen and newly minted Eclipse Award-winning apprentice jockey Tyler Gaffalione make a strong combination - showing a 20 percent strike rate and positive ROI (return on investment).
Strategy on $10 Budget - $10 win on #1 Myorin ($10)
Strategy on $25 Budget - $1 exacta box 1,4,7,11 ($12)
$.50 cent trifecta 1,7 with 1,4,7,11 with 1,4,7,11 ($6)
$7 win on #1 Myorin ($7)
Strategy on $50 Budget - $25 win on #1 Myorin ($25)
$1 exacta box 1,4,7,11 ($12)
$1 trifecta 1,7 with 1,4,7,11 with 1,4,7,11 ($12)
ROI year to date: $339 wagered/$11.20 returned