Los Ponies Longshots for Jan. 23-24
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Welcome to Los Ponies Longshots! Each week, America’s Best Racing’s Southern California correspondent Jose Contreras – Los Ponies to those who follow him on Twitter – will provide two or three longshots at 8-to-1 odds or better on the morning line that he identifies as strong value bets. Contreras also will map out a betting strategy for how to play his selections and keep track of his return on investment (ROI).
Stop back each week if you love a longshot!
Saturday, Race 8, Santa Anita, Grade 2 Santa Monica Stakes, 7:03 p.m. ET
#9 Finest City (10-1): She was close to a pretty solid pace last time out and then gave in when coming down the stretch. I like that Corey Nakatani takes the call once again, given that he was aboard for her two wins. I like her outside post once again, and I think she will be a bit farther back today in hopes of picking up the pieces in the final furlong.
Strategy on $10 Budget
$1 exacta: 9 with 1,2,5,6,7 ($5)
$1 exacta: 1,2,5,6,7 with 9 ($5)
Strategy on $25 Budget -
$10 win-place on Finest City ($20)
$1 exacta: 9 with 1,2,5,6,7 ($5)
Strategy on $50 Budget -
$1 trifecta: 9 with 1,2,5,6,7 with 1,2,5,6,7 ($20)
$1 trifecta: 1,2,5,6,7 with 9 with 1,2,5,6,7 ($20)
$10 win on Finest City ($10)
Sunday, Race 6, Santa Anita, 6 p.m. ET
#6 Liam the Charmer (8-1): He makes his debut in a field with plenty of questions. I like his breeding and only three of the 10 runners in this field have ever tried going a route. He was purchased for $500,000 at the 2014 Keeneland September yearling sale, and this trainer is no stranger to debut winners (he used to be an assistant to Todd Pletcher).
Strategy on $10 Budget
$1 exacta: 6 with 2,3,4,5,7 ($5)
$1 exacta: 2,3,4,5,7 with 6 ($5)
Strategy on $25 Budget
$10 win-place on Liam the Charmer ($20)
$1 exacta: 6 with 2,3,4,5,7 ($5)
Strategy on $50 Budget
$1 trifecta: 6 with 2,3,4,5,7 with 2,3,4,5,7 ($20)
$1 trifecta: 2,3,4,5,7 with 6 with 2,3,4,5,7 ($20)
$10 win on Liam the Charmer ($10)
ROI Year to date: $255 wagered/$0 returned