Making Money Betting Flexibility in the Withers

Flexibility, pictured before his win in the Jerome Stakes, will be a strong favorite in Saturday's Withers at Aqueduct. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
Aqueduct’s road to the Kentucky Derby will continue on Saturday with the $250,000 Withers Stakes, the second of four Derby preps being held at Aqueduct this winter. Flexibility (#2), who won the first leg decisively when he romped to a 4 ¼-length victory in the Jerome Stakes, is back to try to sweep the second leg of the series.
Flexibility’s presence in the race makes it somewhat tricky to handicap, since he looks like the fastest horse by a wide margin and will be the heavy favorite to win. In November, he finished a close second to early Kentucky Derby favorite Mohaymen in the Remsen Stakes—a race Flexibility might have won if Mohaymen hadn’t gotten a perfect ground-saving trip—and in the Jerome he was even more impressive. After settling nicely behind the leaders, he made a powerful run on the far turn to take command and win easily in the quick time of 1:42.98, good for a Beyer speed figure of 90. He also managed to avoid the bad weather in New York and get in two workouts in advance of the Withers, which should have him ready for another big effort. He looks very tough to beat.
But Flexibility’s strong performances mean that he won’t offer much value in the Withers. In the Jerome, he won at odds of 0.55-1—meaning that a $2 win bet returned just $3.10—and his odds could be just as low on Saturday. Therefore, the key to making money when betting Flexibility will be playing him on top in the exacta and trifecta.
The most logical candidate to finish second is Sunny Ridge (#7), who finished second in both the Champagne Stakes and Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes, and while his recent workouts are unimpressive, it’s important to note that he’s never been an eye-catching workhorse—in fact, he didn’t post any timed workouts for almost three weeks before the Delta Downs Jackpot.
But experience at Aqueduct can be valuable in Aqueduct’s winter Derby preps, and for that reason, I think Vorticity (#5) warrants a very close look as well. After winning two of his first three starts, including the Marylander Stakes, he got involved in a three-horse duel for the lead in the Jerome, but overcame this challenge to finish a clear-cut second. Granted, he was 4 ¼ lengths behind Flexibility, but the fact that he kept on running gamely in the homestretch after the intense battle for the lead was very impressive. Drawing post five with a couple of front-runners to his inside should help him settle off the lead on Saturday, which could help his chances.
For a live longshot, don’t overlook Cards of Stone (#3), who broke his maiden impressively going a mile at Aqueduct before finishing second in an 8.5-furlong allowance race over a sloppy track earlier this month. He has enough speed to set or track the pace and could hold on for a spot in the exacta or trifecta.
Wagering Strategy A—$10 exacta 2 with 7
$6 exacta 2 with 5
$4 exacta 2 with 3
Wagering Strategy B—$3 trifecta 2 with 3,5,7 with 3,5,7. ($18)
Good luck, and no matter who wins, enjoy the race!
$250,000 Withers Stakes
Saturday, Race 4, Aqueduct, 1:50 p.m. ET
1 1/16 miles, dirt, 3-year-olds

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner

Odds

1

Donegal Moon

Aaron Gryder

Todd Pletcher

Donegal Racing

TBD

2

Flexibility

Irad Ortiz Jr.

Chad C. Brown

Klaravich Stables and William Lawrence

TBD

3

Cards of Stone

Eric Cancel

James Bond

McConnell Racing Stable and Darlene Bilinski

TBD

4

King Kranz

Cornelio Velasquez

John Terranova II

Zayat Stables

TBD

5

Vorticity

Jose Ortiz

James Lawrence II

Matthew Schera

TBD

6

Adventist

Kendrick Carmouche

Leah Gyarmati

Treadway Racing Stable

TBD

7

Sunny Ridge

Manuel Franco

Jason Servis

Dennis Drazin

TBD