Los Ponies Longshots for Jan. 30-31
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Welcome to Los Ponies Longshots! Each week, America’s Best Racing’s Southern California correspondent Jose Contreras – Los Ponies to those who follow him on Twitter – will provide two or three longshots at 8-to-1 odds or better on the morning line that he identifies as strong value bets. Contreras also will map out a betting strategy for how to play his selections and keep track of his return on investment (ROI).
Stop back each week if you love a longshot!
Saturday, Race 10, Santa Anita, 7:34 p.m. ET
#5 Immunity Idol (8-1): She is making her debut in a field without any standouts and that makes her interesting in this spot. Her sire has some decent stats with debut winners (14%) and this barn has been heating up the last few weeks at Santa Anita. She appears to have turned it up a notch in her last two workouts in preparation for this race.
Strategy on $10 Budget
$1 exacta: 5 with 1,2,7,8,10 ($5)
$1 exacta: 1,2,7,8,10 with 5 ($5)
Strategy on $25 Budget
$10 win-place on Immunity Idol ($20)
$1 exacta: 5 with 1,2,7,8,10 ($5)
Strategy on $50 Budget
$1 trifecta: 5 with 1,2,7,8,10 with 1,2,7,8,10 ($20)
$1 trifecta: 1,2,7,8,10 with 5 with 1,2,7,8,10 ($20)
$10 win on Immunity Idol ($10)
Sunday, Race 8, Santa Anita, 7 p.m. ET
#4 Royalist (10-1): He was a debut winner but the problem is that he hasn’t raced since then which was back in February 2015. That long layoff is what’s going to give us some good odds on him because a lot of people are going to wonder if he can follow up from his debut after almost a year off. I like that his debut win was here at Santa Anita over this same turf course. I like his schedule of workouts in preparation for his return.
Strategy on $10 Budget
$1 exacta: 4 with 1,6,7,10,11 ($5)
$1 exacta: 1,6,7,10,11 with 4 ($5)
Strategy on $25 Budget
$10 win-place on Royalist ($20)
$1 exacta: 4 with 1,6,7,10,11 ($5)
Strategy on $50 Budget
$1 trifecta: 4 with 1,6,7,10,11 with 1,6,7,10,11 ($20)
$1 trifecta: 1,6,7,10,11 with 4 with 1,6,7,10,11($20)
$10 win on Royalist ($10)
ROI Year to date: $595 wagered/$53 returned