Betting the Robert B. Lewis on a Budget

Mor Spirit makes his sophomore debut in Saturday's Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita Park. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
On Saturday, a field of seven promising Kentucky Derby contenders will head to the Santa Anita Park starting gate for the $150,000, Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis Stakes, an 1 1/16-mile race that offers a total of 17 Derby qualification points to the top four finishers.
Trainer Bob Baffert’s exciting 3-year-old Mor Spirit (#5) will likely be the heavy favorite to win, having finished first or second in all four of his races last year, including a decisive victory in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity. In that race, Mor Spirit showed a new dimension rating off the pace before rallying to win by 1 ¼ lengths, and to my eye, it appeared as though Mor Spirit was just toying with his rivals and could have taken the lead at any point had jockey Gary Stevens so desired. Since that race, Mor Spirit has turned in six solid workouts at Santa Anita and looks ready to run a big race on Saturday.
However, it is worth nothing that Mor Spirit will be carrying 124 pounds in the Robert B. Lewis, five pounds more than several of his talented rivals. One colt that looks like a major contender is I Will Score (#2), an unbeaten runner from the barn of Jerry Hollendorfer. In his debut sprinting 5 ½ furlongs on Sept. 11 at Los Alamitos, I Will Score won in gate-to-wire fashion by 6 ½ lengths but was sidelined with a minor injury and didn’t run again until Jan. 3. On that day, he showcased blinding speed in a 6 ½-furlong allowance race at Santa Anita, dueling for the lead through fractions of :21.02 and :43.23 before prevailing by a head in the time of 1:15.15.
I Will Score’s amazing early speed suggests that he might be a sprinter, but his pedigree offers hope that he can handle the distance of the Robert B. Lewis. I Will Score’s sire is Roman Ruler, winner of the 1 1/8-mile Haskell Invitational and sire of 2011 Belmont Stakes winner Ruler On Ice, and I Will Score’s dam is Grassy Nellie, who won three races going a mile or longer on turf. In addition, drawing post two should ensure that I Will Score secures the early lead, and in a race that doesn’t appear to have a lot of pace, he could have a major chance to pull off a gate-to-wire upset.
I also like the chances of Mor Spirit’s stablemate Let's Meet in Rio (#1), who put in a big late run to finish second in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita earlier this month. Let’s Meet in Rio seems like a colt that is just getting going at a mile, so the extra distance of the Robert B. Lewis should help his chances, and my feeling is that we haven’t seen anywhere near his best yet. With more time, distance, and experience, I think Let’s Meet in Rio might end up being the best of these colts.
With a small field and a heavy favorite, the win, place, and show bets are unlikely to pay much, so we’ll have to look to exactas and trifectas to try and make a bigger score:
Wagering Strategy A: Exactas $5 exacta: 5 with 1,2 ($10) $3 exacta: 1,2 with 5 ($6) $2 exacta box: 1 and 2 ($4)
Wagering Strategy B: Trifectas $6 trifecta 5 with 1,2 with 1,2 ($12) $2 trifecta 2 with 1,5 with 1,5 ($4) $2 trifecta 1 with 2,5 with 2,5 ($4)
Good luck, and enjoy the race!
$150,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes
Saturday, Race 4, Santa Anita Park, 5 p.m. ET
1 1/16 miles, dirt, 3-year-olds

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner

Odds

1

Let's Meet in Rio

Kent Desormeaux

Bob Baffert

Juddmonte Farms

TBD

2

I Will Score

Mike Smith

Jerry Hollendorfer

Hans Poetsch

TBD

3

Dressed in Hermes

Rafael Bejarano

Janet Armstrong

Budget Stable

TBD

4

Laoban

Tyler Baze

Eric Guillot

Southern Equine Stable or McCormick Racing

TBD

5

Mor Spirit

Gary Stevens

Bob Baffert

Michael Lund Petersen

TBD

6

Path of David

Joseph Talamo

Kristin Mulhall

Alley, Thrash or Thrash, Et Al

TBD

7

Uncle Lino

Fernando Hernandez Perez

Gary Sherlock

Mansor, Purple Shamrock Racing or Sherlock

TBD