El Nino Could Present Triple Crown Challenge

You don't have to spend much time in Southern California to find out precipitation is a pretty big deal in the region.



When the rains come, local broadcasts lead with the "breaking" news. When it doesn't rain for a long period of time—see: the last four years or so—the lack of water leads to a legitimate crisis.



The expected upcoming El Niño cycle—when warm sea temperatures in the Pacific can often lead to heavy rainfall on the West Coast—is a godsend for the region this winter. But for horsemen at Santa Anita Park, specifically those training Triple Crown hopefuls, it could be quite a hindrance.



Back in the El Niño year of 1978, trainer Laz Barrera was constantly frustrated by the frequent downpours while he tried to get Affirmed ready for the Kentucky Derby (gr. I). It rained a then-record 33.44 inches in the Los Angeles area from July of 1977 to June of 1978, as Affirmed's jockey, Steve Cauthen recalled in the foreward to Affirmed: The Last Triple Crown Winner, written by Lou Sahadi.



"Barrera didn't expect what would happen in California, and I became a bit skeptical about the circumstances," Cauthen explained. "The winter that year was inundated with rain, so much that it was a record amount. Laz couldn't get Affirmed to gallop on the track because of the constant rain and the mud it created. He didn't want to take any chance of Affirmed's enduring a freakish accident. Instead, Affirmed was limited to walks and jogs in the barn area. 'I've never had to train a horse like this in my life,' he told me."



Sahadi said later in the book that the constant rain in preparation for Affirmed's Triple Crown run left Barerra consistently "grumpy," but the son of Exclusive Native went on to win all three classics anyway.



At the opposite end of the spectrum, the last four years (2011-2015) have been the "driest four successive winters since 1895," according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and perhaps the corresponding uptick in California-trained horses' prominence in the Triple Crown series is no coincidence.



The first year of the drought brought the Kentucky Derby and Preakness (gr. I) wins by Doug O'Neill-trained I'll Have Another   and the final year delivered the first Triple Crown winner in 37 years, Bob Baffert-trained American Pharoah  —which included an all-California Derby trifecta with Firing Line and Dortmund. Throw in California Chrome  's run in 2014 and there's no doubt the Golden State has left its mark on the series in recent years.



There's likely something advantageous in being able to train every day, over a good track and under clear skies.



"You see there's definitely an edge—if you have a solid horse and they stay injury-free, there's an edge out here," said O'Neill, who has Reddam Racing's undefeated champion Nyquist, one of the Derby favorites, in his barn.



O'Neill said Nyquist's current plan—a path that includes the Feb. 15 San Vicente (gr. II) at Santa Anita and the April 2 Florida Derby (gr. I)—has more to do with the timing leading into the Triple Crown, along with a $1 million bonus put up by Gulfstream Park and Fasig-Tipton to a winning Florida Derby horse who came out of the 2015 Fasig-Tipton Florida 2-year-olds in training sale.

But the trainer also said that when a storm shut down Santa Anita's main track for training for three days in January, he seriously considered sending Nyquist to Golden Gate Fields in Northern California. Golden Gate has an all-weather synthetic track that handles moisture much better and other horses, like Shared Belief, have made the Bay Area track their home base because it is easier on their feet.



"We were ready to go up north for a split second. We had six inches of rain that one week and the main track was closed for three days," O'Neill recalled. "Nyquist was climbing the walls and it was like, 'This isn't the way we want this to work.' Just as we were packing our bags, the skies cleared and, knock on wood, it's been good so far."



Southern California trainers, whether they have a Triple Crown contender or not, roundly emphasize patience and adaptability if the storms do come in force in the typically rainy months (February through April).



"Everybody has a different way of dealing with it," Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella said. "As I've gotten older, I try harder to train around it and avoid it. In other words, I'll move a work up a day or two and get it in before the rain. I try not to hold my training chart in awe as much as I used to."



"We'll watch it—everybody watches it," Baffert said. "If I have a horse on the schedule, we watch it and schedule around it."



Many trainers also expressed the difference between Southern California tracks and others across the country, specifically on the East Coast. When extended rainstorms hit sandier dirt tracks in the East, they handle it better than more clay-based racetracks in Southern California and other parts of the Southwest, where maintaining moisture during dry periods is paramount.



"The eastern tracks sometimes get better with rain, because they're so sandy," Mandella explained. "Ours have a lot of organic material and clay, because we deal with dry weather and keep the moisture in. If you just had sand in it, you wouldn't be able to run in it. It would be like running deep in the beach.



"Our tracks aren't as safe after the rain. It's not that their tracks are better than ours—you just have to realize the difference."



Baffert similarly brought up his concern with safety after rains at Santa Anita and Del Mar.



"If we got a solid week of rain here, then you gotta be careful, because our base is a little harder here," Baffert said. "We get a lot of quarter cracks and bruises. Last year, Pharoah bruised his frog and that's when I put the plate on him."

Often the alternative, when the main track is sealed and closed for training, is to work horses on the sandier inner training track, which butts up against the infield at Santa Anita and handles moisture better, but that presents challenges as well. Inside of the significantly tighter turf course, going too fast around the even tighter turns on the training track can be a concern. Also, when the main track is closed, traffic on the training track significantly increases.



"When it looked like we were going to get seven straight days of rain, we were just trying to get Bolo ready and he went five-eighths on the training track, and I was scared to death," said Carla Gaines, who trained the son of Temple City   to a 12th-place finish in last year's Derby and currently has Smokey Image on the Triple Crown trail. "He handles it great, but the turns are so tight and that guy now is easily 17 hands—that horse has grown and developed like you wouldn't believe—but he's just such a big horse to go around those tight turns, so we had him slow down in the turns and let him run in the stretch."



Baffert, who was far from a proponent of synthetic surfaces during the state's mandated synthetics era from 2007 to 2014, would actually like to see an all-weather or Polytrack surface installed in the training track at Santa Anita.



"I wish they would make the training track synthetic. That would really be (a solution)," Baffert said. "If they had synthetic there, we would never have to worry about anything. A lot of horses would train on it. That's why they kept Shared Belief (at Golden Gate), because he kept getting quarter cracks. This (main) track, when they add a lot of sand to it—it's hard on feet. Like Dortmund—he has been having some foot issues."



The good news for Southern California's Triple Crown hopefuls is that, even if their good-weather edge is gone, talent can power through. Affirmed did it in 1978, Giacomo   won the Derby after another record-setting winter of rainfall in 2005 (37.96 inches), and American Pharoah seemed to do just fine prepping for a time in rain-soaked Arkansas last year.