Dan’s Double: Weekend Winners for Feb. 6-7

When it comes to making money when handicapping races and betting on horse racing, it’s all about picking winners. Dan Tordjman, America’s Best Racing’s New York correspondent, is one of the brightest young minds in the game.
Each Week, Tordjman – DanonymousMan to those who follow him on Twitter – will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Tordjman will keep track of his return on investment (ROI) throughout the year and, as a bonus, he will also provide picks for a selection of the key races on the Triple Crown trail and the road to the Breeders’ Cup.
Come back every week and be sure to follow Tordjman on Twitter.
Saturday, Feb. 6, Race 13, Donn Handicap, Gulfstream Park
#4 Valid (6-1): Known mostly as a miler, this gutsy horse tries stretching out to 1 1/8 miles here in the featured race of the weekend, the Grade 1 Donn Handicap.This is only Valid’s second attempt in Grade 1 company, after finishing fifth in last year’s Las vegas Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. I think this race sets up rather nicely for him, as he should be able to dictate the pace right from the break. He looks like the main speed and he loves running at this track (six wins and four additional top-three finishes from 12 starts). He’s raced four times at this lengthier 1 1/8-mile distance, and he’s finished in the money each time. He comes out of a strong effort in the Grade 3 Hal’s Hope Stakes, in which he was forced to run a lot faster than he’ll have to in this race, especially when you look at the splits for the previous first half-mile and three-quarters of a mile. Last year, he bounced back from a fourth-place finish in the Hal’s Hope to win a Grade 3 and post a 105 Beyer Speed Figure (which is highest since then). Reunited with jockey Nik Jaurez, with whom he won the Grade 3 Iselin Stakes at Monmouth Park last summer (also at 1 1/8 miles), Valid looks primed for a huge effort here. He might also be overlooked in the betting. 
Strategy on $10 Budget
$2 win-place-show on #4 Valid ($6)
$2 exacta box 4, 6 ($4)
Strategy on $25 Budget
$2 exacta key box 4 over 3,6,7,8 ($16)
$1 trifecta 4,6 with 4,6,8 with 4,6,7,8 ($8)
Strategy on $50 Budget
$1 trifecta key 4 with 3,6,7,8 ($12)
$1 exacta box 4,6,7,8 ($12)
$1 trifecta box 4,6,8 ($6)
$10 win-place on #4 Valid ($20)
Sunday, Feb. 7, Race 2, Gulfstream Park
#3 Twist and Turn (9-5): I generally try to stay away from big favorites, especially in lower-level claiming races, but this is a sure a bet as you can make on this otherwise difficult Gulfstream card. Twist and Turn broke from a wide post and traveled wide throughout last out in a race that washed off the turf. Here, she gets back to six furlongs on what should be firm ground, and she breaks from post-position three. That should enable her to jump out to an early lead and I’m not seeing many other pace factors in this race. Fully expecting this filly to take them wire to wire. If we can get 2-1 or 5-2 on her, take it and run.
Strategy on $10 Budget
$10 win on #3 Twist and Turn ($10)
Strategy on $25 Budget
$25 win on #3 Twist and Turn ($25)
Strategy on $50 Budget
$1 trifecta 3 with 4,5 with ALL ($14)
$35 win on #3 Twist and Turn ($35)
ROI Year to date: $675 wagered/$157.40 returned