Betting Against Frank Conversation in the El Camino Real Derby

A full field of 13 challengers will try to upset Frank Conversation, right, in Saturday's El Camino Real Derby. (Photo by Shane Micheli/Vassar Photography)
The 2016 edition of the Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields has attracted a full field of 14 runners looking to earn some Kentucky Derby points and the lion’s share of the $200,000 purse. 
This should be a good betting race given the field size and the great mix of runners. There’s a few international shippers, a few horses trying a synthetic track for the first time, and some that are going a route distance for the first time. 
I landed on #7 Marqula as my top pick. I think he’s getting better with each start and I feel he will get a great trip. His morning line odds are fair (8-1) and we might get something very close to that at post time given the big field. He just couldn't catch fellow rival Frank Conversation in the California Derby last time out when Frank Conversation got a great trip settling behind the pace setters. I like that Marqula has the most experience over this Tapeta track and that he’s faced stakes competition in four of his six starts. 
To complete my bets I will use the following horses: 
#2 Kasseopia will be well-bet given his second place finish in the Grade 3 Grey Stakes at Woodbine over the synthetic track. Before that, he posted a nine-length win over a synthetic track in England. 
#4 Mr. Coker has shown talent in both starts and will be a tough competitor if he keeps improving. He’s trying a route distance of the first time and racing on the synthetic for the first time as well. 
#8 Tusk has proven to like the turf and those type of runners tend to handle this Tapeta track very well. He gets a top local jockey that knows this track very well and has finished on the board in five of his six starts. 
#10 Diplodocus didn’t seem to care for the good turf conditions in his last race but two starts ago he looked great winning on the firm turf at the same distance as this race. He gets top jockey Russell Baze to ride. 
#12 Frank Conversation won the California Derby over this track last month when drawing away after a great trip. This track might be his favorite surface yet. 
Bets on a $10 Budget: 
$1 Exacta: 7 with 2,4,8,10,12 ($5)
$1 Exacta: 2,4,8,10,12 with 7 ($5) 
Bets on a $25 Budget: 
$10 Win-Place on #7 Marqula ($20)
$1 Exacta: 7 with 2,4,8,10,12 ($5)
Bets on a $50 Budget: 
$10 Win on #7 Marqula
$1 Trifecta: 7 with 2,4,8,10,12 with 2,4,8,10,12 ($20)
$1 Trifecta: 2,4,8,10,12 with 7 with 2,4,8,10,12 ($20)
$200,000 El Camino Real Derby
Saturday, Race 7, Golden Gate Fields, 6:45 p.m. ET
1 1/8 miles, all-weather, 3-year-olds

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner

Odds

1

Kelly With a Twist

Abel Cedillo

Manuel Calvario

Napoleon Lopez

30-1

2

Kasseopia

Drayden Van Dyke

Graham Motion

Team Valor

7-2

3

Touched by Autism

Frank Alvarado

Marcia Stortz

Johnny Taboada

30-1

4

Mr. Coker

Santiago Gonzalez

Jerry Hollendorfer

Steve Beneto

9-2

5

Oscar Dominguez

Julien Couton

Patrick Gallagher

Ronald Day and Derrick Fisher

15-1

6

San Dimas

Ricardo Gonzalez

Eoin Harty

Godolphin Racing

20-1

7

Marqula

Kyle Frey

Jeff Bonde

Klein, Lebherz or Meister

8-1

8

Tusk

Juan Hernandez

Graham Motion

Flaxman Holdings

5-1

9

Algenon

Catalino Martinez

Len Kasmerski

Rozamund Barclay

15-1

10

Diplodocus

Russell Baze

Richard Baltas

Bloom Racing Stable or Head of Plains Partners

15-1

11

Go Long

Erick Lopez

Keith Desormeaux

Barrows, Brehm, Desormeaux, Fox or Mitchell

20-1

12

Frank Conversation

Mario Gutierrez

Doug O'Neill

Reddam Racing

2-1

13

Mana Strike

Leslie Mawing

Frank Lucarelli

David Taylor Jr.

15-1

14

Giopress

Alejandro Gomez

Reina Gonzalez

Al Bresciani or Cindy or Tom Waterson

20-1