Dan’s Double: Weekend Winners for Feb. 13-14
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When it comes to making money when handicapping races and betting on horse racing, it’s all about picking winners. Dan Tordjman, America’s Best Racing’s New York correspondent, is one of the brightest young minds in the game.
Each Week, Tordjman – DanonymousMan to those who follow him on Twitter – will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Tordjman will keep track of his return on investment (ROI) throughout the year and, as a bonus, he will also provide picks for a selection of the key races on the Triple Crown trail and the road to the Breeders’ Cup.
Come back every week and be sure to follow Tordjman on Twitter.
Saturday, Feb. 13, Race 8, Barbar Fritchie Handicap, Laurel Park
#4 Princess Violet (6-1): The Grade 2 Barbara Fritchie Stakes will be one of the most interesting races to watch on Saturday. The race sets up for a showdown between Lady Sheila Stable’s speedy filly Hot City Girl and the winner of the Fritchie last year Lady Sabelia. When winning the race in 2015, Lady Sabelia opened up a large–and uncontested–lead and was able to hang on to a length and a half win over Princess Violet. Lady Sabelia won’t be able to coast on the front end this year, and may find it difficult to keep up with the early pace of Hot City Girl.
I think the race might just set up for a horse sitting right behind the top pair, which brings me back to Princess Violet. Despite the credentials of the likely favorites in the race, Princess Violet is the only Grade 1 winner at seven furlongs among them, having won the Madison at Keeneland last year. Her last two races at Aqueduct were uncharacteristically flat but she did have some excuses in those races. Clearly, she’ll have to call on some of her back-form but she’s run well in her only try over the course, she likes the distance, gets a top local rider and the race should set up for her at a nice price.
Strategy on $10 Budget$1 exacta 4 over 1,2,3,4,5,6 ($5)$.50 trifecta 3,4 with 3,4 with ALL ($5)
Strategy on $25 Budget$1 trifecta key 4 with 2,3,5,6 ($12)$1 exacta key box 4 over all ($12)
Strategy on $50 Budget$1 trifecta 3,4 with 3,4,5,6 with 3,4,5,6 ($12)$2 exacta box 2,3,4,6 ($24)$1 exacta 4 over 1,3,6,7 ($4)$10 to win on #4 Princess Violet ($10)
Sunday, Feb. 14, Race 1, Gulfstream Park
#1 Like a Charm (Odds TBD): If there’s one thing I like more than stretch-out speed on the turf (horses going from a sprinting distance like five or six furlongs to a route at a mile or slightly more), it’s having that horse on the rail. Conditions seem perfect for Like a Charm to open up an easy lead in the opener on Sunday’s card. These are $16,000 claimers, so I wouldn’t expect to see too many horses flying late from off the pace. Like a Charm has yet to win over the turf at Gulfstream but she’s finished in the money (in the top three spots) in half of her eight starts. I’ll make some betting suggestions below but let her odds dictate your plays. There’s no need to make a big win and place bet, for example, if her odds drop down to 2-1 or lower.
Strategy on $10 Budget$.50 trifecta 1 with 2,8 with all ($7)$1 exacta 2,7,8 over 1 ($3)
Strategy on $25 Budget$1 exacta box 1,2,8 ($6)$1 trifecta box 1,2,8 ($6)$.10 superfecta 1,2,8 with 1,2,7,8 with 1,2,7,8 with all ($10.80)
Strategy on $50 Budget$25 to win on #1 Like a Charm ($25)$1 exacta box 1,2,8 ($6)$1 trifecta box 1,2,8 ($6)$.10 superfecta 1,2,8 with 1,2,7,8 with 1,2,7,8 with all ($10.80)
ROI Year to date: $843 wagered/$250.60 returned