Three Longshots to Consider in Southwest Stakes

Synchrony (above) has a solid chance to post an upset in the $500,000 Southwest Stakes on Monday at Oaklawn Park. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
It’s hard not to get excited about Monday’s $500,000 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park, a 1 1/16-mile Kentucky Derby prep race that has drawn a full field of 14 up-and-coming Derby contenders.
With so many horses to consider, the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes should be a terrific betting race with lots of value to be found on logical and talented horses.
The race is particularly interesting if you think Collected (#1) can be beaten. Trained by Bob Baffert, Collected looked good winning the one-mile, Grade 3 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita Park last month, overcoming a wide trip to win by 1 ¼ lengths over Let’s Meet in Rio. It was a solid effort, but he was tiring at the end, running the final two furlongs in a slow :26.08, and his pedigree suggests that races longer than a mile could be too far for him. Additionally, he’s drawn post position one, and with several other front-running horses in the race, Collected could be at a tactical disadvantage since he’ll have to either go to the lead from the start and get involved in a fast pace or take back and risk getting trapped in traffic on the rail.
Another well-regarded runner that could be worth playing against is Discreetness (#14), the winner of the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn last month. Having drawn post-position 14 could set him up for a very wide trip, and while he overcame racing wide to win the Smarty Jones, he won’t have much margin for error in a race like this.
SMARTY JONES STAKES

Additionally, as proven stakes winners, both Collected and Discreetness will have to carry 122 pounds in the Southwest, conceding from 5-to-7 pounds to other 12 entrants. For all these reasons, I think they both can be beaten on Monday, and below are three live longshots that I think could pull off the upset:
Whitmore (#2): Trainer Ron Moquett won this race last year with Far Right and could have a big chance again with Whitmore, who won his career debut by 7 ¼ lengths at Churchill Downs last November. After finishing fifth in the Grade 3 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes just 15 days later, Whitmore was given some time off before winning a six-furlong allowance race at Oaklawn on Jan. 16. In that race, Whitmore got off to a slow start but showed no reluctance to race inside of horses while saving ground throughout the race. When an opening appeared in the homestretch, he burst through to win by 3 ¼ lengths while running the final furlong in :12.33. If he can work out another ground-saving trip from post-position two, I think he has a huge chance to win.
American Dubai (#3): In his first start around two turns, American Dubai tackled a 1 1/16-mile allowance race at Oaklawn on Jan. 21 and ran very well off a two-month layoff, leading by 3 ½ lengths before tiring late to be beaten by just a half-length. He suffered an eye injury during the race but recovered quickly and has trained well for this race. Having a prep race under his belt should improve his fitness for the Southwest, and he gets into the race carrying just 115 pounds, a meaningful advantage compared with Collected and Discreetness. Plus, he’ll be coupled as an entry for wagering purposes with #3 Torrentos, meaning that if you bet one, you’re betting them both — definitely an added benefit!
Synchrony (#6): He was arguably too far behind in the early stages of the Smarty Jones, but rallied well to finish third despite a lack of racing room in the final furlong. The extra sixteenth of a mile and the longer homestretch of the Southwest Stakes should greatly aid his chances, and like American Dubai, he could be poised for a better effort in his second start of the season. Even better, he’ll be coupled in the wagering with Suddenbreakingnews (#13), runner-up by a nose to Discreetness in the 2015 Remington Springboard Mile Stakes.
These three horses can add value to your wagers even if you include the favorites, but the potential for a great score exists if you play against the favorites entirely. Here are a couple of wagering strategies for both approaches:
Wagering Strategy A: Exactas with the favorites
$2 exacta 1,14 with 2,3,6 ($12)
$1 exacta 2,3,6 with 1,2,3,6,14 ($12)
Wagering Strategy B: Exactas without the favorites
$2 exacta box 2,3,6 ($12)
$1 exacta 2,3,6 with 8,10 ($6)
Good luck, and enjoy the race!
$500,000 Southwest StakesMonday, Feb. 15, Oaklawn Park, 6:09 p.m. ET1 1/16 miles, 3-year-olds, dirt

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner(s)

Odds

1

Collected

Martin Garcia

Bob Baffert

Speedway Stable

TBD

2

Whitmore

Mike Smith

Ron Moquett

Robert V LaPenta, Harry T.Rosenblum & Southern Springs Stables

TBD

3

American Dubai

Walter De La Cruz

Rodney Richards

Richard Keith

TBD

4

Torrontes

Channing Hill

Kellyn Gorder

Beckett Racing Team & David Thornton

TBD

5

Bird of Trey

Joshua Navarro

John Servis

JRita Young Thoroughbreds

TBD

6

Synchrony

Shaun Bridgmohan

Donnie Von Hemel

Pin Oak Stable

TBD

7

Z Royal

Gary Stevens

D. Wayne Lukas

Zayat Stables

TBD

8

Gordy Florida

Glenn Corbett

Kenny Smith

Dream Walkin Farms

TBD

9

War Stroll

Chris Landeros

Ken McPeek

Turf Stable Racing

TBD

10

Cutacorner

Quincy Hamilton

Jack Van Berg

Kay Stillman

TBD

11

Siding Spring

Joseph Rocco Jr.

Mark Casse

Gabe Grossberg

TBD

12

Luna de Loco

Ricardo Santana Jr.

Steve Asmussen

Calumet Farm

TBD

13

Suddenbreakingnews

Luis Quinonez

Donnie Von Hemel

Samuel F. Henderson

TBD

14

Discreetness

Jon Court

Jinks Fires

Xpress Thoroughbreds

TBD