Tip of the Week: Risky Business

Deciding whether or not to wager on a horse taking a big class drop can be risky business.
In most instances this happens when a horse has been struggling against better competition and his connections decide to find an easier spot where their runner is a better fit.
At times, that plan works out perfectly and brings out the best in their horse. Then again, the poor performances could also stem from a horse being in an awful form cycle and not even weaker competition can pull him out of that tailspin.
U.S.S. Boxer provided that quandary for handicappers in the fifth race at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 4. In his last two races, U.S.S. Boxer was 13th in a $50,000 claimer on the turf and ninth in a $200,000 Claiming Crown stakes.
Off a pair of losses by a combined 27 lengths, it was hardly a surprise that U.S.S. Boxer was dropped into a $30,000 claimer, which matched the lowest claiming tag of his career.
But would the class drop matter?
Looking over U.S.S. Boxer’s last two races, there was definitely some compelling reasons to discount both of them.
The $50,000 claimer was on the turf and in the 4-year-old colt’s first race on grass he was 12th and last in a maiden race. Clearly, turf was not his preferred surface.
As for the Claiming Crown race, aside from facing stakes-caliber rivals, the race was on a muddy track.
In retrospect, even if U.S.S. Boxer was in sharp form, he would have been hard-pressed to be a serious contender in either race.
Prior to those two races, U.S.S. Boxer raced four times in a starter allowance race for horses that had raced for claiming tags as high as $50,000. Though winless in those races, he was second once and fourth twice.
Before that, the son of Curlin had broken his maiden in a $30,000 claiming race at Saratoga, where claiming races are ultra-competitive.
With a body of work like that, there were signs that a $30,000 claimer had the potential to be the tonic for what had been ailing U.S.S. Boxer in tougher races.
Helping matters was that U.S.S. Boxer was priced at 4-1 in the morning line and not a heavy favorite, which would have lessened the risk vs. reward ratio in banking on the colt to revert to top form.
Handicappers had some doubts as U.S.S. Boxer rose slightly to 9-2 odds at post time, but he relished the weaker competition and took charge in the final furlong to deliver a knockout punch and win by 4 ¼ lengths, paying $11.40 for a $2 win bet.
THE LESSON: Handicappers should rely on more than a horse’s last race or two when trying to determine how it will respond to a class drop.