Six Kentucky Derby Strategies on a $20 Budget

Intense Holiday is doing well at Churchill. (Photos by Eclipse Sportswire)

What better way to build some ABRV team spirit than with a little wagering competition? Below, the ambassadors have broken down their picks for Saturday’s Run for the Roses. Not only will the ambassador who wins have a little extra cash in his/her pocket but also, more importantly, bragging rights on the rest of the crew. Without further ado, the picks:

Ciara Austin
There’s no denying that California Chrome has rightfully gained his place as the favorite in the Kentucky Derby. The fastest horse in the field has won all three of his starts this year and four straight overall. He is the one to watch. Although his pedigree comes from a line of sprinters, it hasn’t seemed to play a role in his performance.

I personally just can’t get enough of Dance With Fate. Besides being the most handsome horse of the field of 20, I believe he has great potential and I’ve enjoyed watching his progress since his 2-year-old season. From post position 11 (saddlecloth and program number 12), Corey Nakatani will know how to handle Dance With Fate for not only the surface but also the distance.

Wicked Strong and Intense Holiday both are strong contenders in this race, and I wanted to find a way to include them in my strategy. Wicked Strong didn’t pull the best post position 19 (saddlecloth and program number 20) but is known to be a closer. Intense Holiday has steadily been improving and he may be ready to run this distance.

Strategy: $4 exacta: 5,12,20 with 5,16 = $20 bet (California Chrome, Dance With Fate, Wicked Strong with California Chrome, Intense Holiday)

Dan Tordjman
I always say that the key to cashing at the races is betting with your mind and not your heart. But if you’ve followed my Twitter feed or had any conversation with me about the Kentucky Derby since February, I’ve been talking about a horse who stole my heart. His name is Vinceremos, and if you haven’t heard the backstory on him Google it - immediately.

Anyhow, ol’ Vince doesn’t come in riding high. He didn’t take to the synthetic Polytrack surface in his last prep race at Keeneland Race Course and he’s been listed at 30-to-1 on the morning line. You wouldn’t put $20 on the horse to win if I gave you my money to bet with. So, with that said, I’ll attempt to offer up a betting strategy with my mind, rather than my heart, to help you cash a nice ticket on Kentucky Derby 140.

Strategy: $1 exacta box: 5,6,9,16 = $12 bet (California Chrome, Samraat, Vinceremos, Intense Holiday)

50-cent trifecta: 5,9 with 5,9,10 with 5,6,9,10,16,19 = $8 bet (California Chrome, Vinceremos with California Chrome, Vinceremos, Wildcat Red with California Chrome, Samraat, Vinceremos, Wildcat Red, Intense Holiday, Ride On Curlin)

Jose Contreras
I have not seen any horse stand out as much as California Chrome has done so far this year. He’s going to be the favorite, so the best way to make some money will be with the exotics. California Chrome’s biggest hurdle will be the post position and trip. Speaking in terms of talent, I think he’s much better than the rest of them. He doesn’t need the lead. He has won on the lead, stalking the pace and from the middle of the pack.

Strategy: 50-cent trifecta: 5 with 4,8,10,13,18,20 with 4,6,8,10,12,13,18,20 = $21 bet (California Chrome with Danza, General a Rod, Wildcat Red, Chitu, Candy Boy, Wicked Strong with Danza, Samraat, General a Rod, Wildcat Red, Dance With Fate, Chitu, Candy Boy, Wicked Strong)

Mike Johnson
For as stunning as California Chrome’s Kentucky Derby prep season was, I’m not completely sold on his dominant status for this race. Contender? Yes. Bonafide stud? I’d like to wait and see. The more I read about and watch Danza, I’m starting to grow a serious man crush on this horse. You can’t help but feel he’s peaking at the perfect time and trainer Todd Pletcher should have him ready to rock come Saturday. Medal Count, similarly, has a grinding style that I seem to be drawn to this time of year because it takes more than just talent to compete in this race. It takes guts — serious guts. Medal Count has ’em.  
 
Strategy: Danza (#4): $2 Win, $2 Place, $4 Show = $8 bet

$2 exacta box: 4,5,14 = $12 bet  (Danza, California Chrome, Medal Count)

Victoria Garofalo
In case anyone was wondering, Derby fever is extremely contagious! In my family, we always say that spring doesn’t officially start until the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby opens. While I’ve watched the Kentucky Derby on TV for as long as I can remember, after seeing it live for the first time last year, this year’s Derby takes on an even greater meaning to me — I can feel that excitement and energy even more and can’t wait to see who crosses that finish line first and wears the roses.

Seemingly peaking at the right time, Intense Holiday has the perfect closing running style for the Derby and is my top choice. Jockey John Velazquez should sit the trip behind a potentially very fast early pace. In my eyes, the game Ride On Curlin has done nothing wrong this spring. Despite reading a stark stat that said not one in more than 3,400 foals out of Storm Cat mares has ever won a major race beyond 1 1/8 miles, I’ve been a big fan of him for a while now and think his local racing experience at Churchill and his (and his sire’s) heart makes him a serious contender. Had Samraat not lost the Wood Memorial Stakes to Wicked Strong, he would have been undefeated going into the Derby and most likely would have been the strong second favorite; at 15-to-1 he is great value. Tough last minute scratch for Bob Baffert’s Hoppertunity, but now I’m throwing Chitu into my exotics — he’s lightly raced and if he can throttle that natural speed to avoid an early speed dual, I see him being there at the end of Churchill’s long Derby stretch. California Chrome is everyone’s favorite — he’s the logical now horse, has the best form — but everything will have to go his way and he’s going to be over bet. Still, I can’t leave him out of my exotics.

Strategy (aka: Vic’s Picks): $1 exacta box: 5,6,13,16,19 = $20 bet (California Chrome, Samraat, Chitu, Intense Holiday, Ride On Curlin)

Vince Mathews
The three horses I will use to try to spice up the exotics are Tapiture, Medal Count, and Danza. Tapiture already had his place in the Kentucky Derby starting gate locked up prior to his final prep race, the Arkansas Derby. Even though he broke from the two hole, Tapiture was wide virtually every step of the way in the Arkansas Derby. He will be reunited with the jockey who has done the best work with this colt, Ricardo Santana Jr.. 

As for Medal Count, he might be a turf-synthetic specialist, but trainer Dale Romans has brought two turf-synthetic specialists to the Kentucky Derby in recent years and hit the board with both of them (Dullahan and Paddy O’ Prado). Romans (an Eclipse Award-winning trainer) has not been shy about his affinity for Medal Count — he worked hard to make sure the colt had the necessary qualifying points to earn a spot in this field — and has said he is more confident in Medal Count than he was about either Dullahan or Paddy O’ Prado. Medal Count has also been receiving rave reviews about his appearance in recent mornings at Churchill Downs. Danza looked like a beast winning the Arkansas Derby, has trained well since arriving at Churchill and, perhaps, he has even more room to improve with the Derby being only his fifth lifetime start.

Strategy: $3 exacta box: 4,14,15 = $18 bet  (Danza, Medal Count, Tapiture)

$1 exacta box: 14,15 = $2 bet (Medal Count, Tapiture)

$2-million Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands
Saturday, Churchill Downs, Race 11, Post Time 6:24
1 ¼ miles, dirt, 3-year-olds
Television: NBC coverage begins at 4 p.m. ET