Beating or Betting the Fountain of Youth Favorite

Zulu could upset heavy favorite Mohaymen in Saturday's Fountain of Youth Stakes. (Photos by Eclipse Sportswire)
On Saturday at Gulfstream Park, the road to the Kentucky Derby will take a major turn when early Derby favorite Mohaymen runs in the $400,000 Xpressbet.com Fountain of Youth Stakes (Grade 2). The 8.5-furlong race drew just six entries, with one—the unbeaten Awesome Banner (#5), who figured to give Mohaymen a stiff challenge—being uncertain to start.
Assuming Awesome Banner scratches, then Mohaymen (#6) should be extremely difficult to beat. The son of Tapit is unbeaten in four starts so far and has shown a wide variety of running styles, winning while on the lead, stalking the pace, coming from behind, and while racing inside, outside, and in between horses. In other words, horses don’t get much more professional than Mohaymen, who has shown a willingness to do whatever his rider requests.
He’s also run fast—his last two Beyer speed figures have been 95s, whereas the best figure earned by any of his rivals is just an 87. This is a significant advantage, and with Mohaymen having drawn the far outside post position in a small field, he should be able to stay clear of traffic and run his best race.
As a result, Mohaymen will be a very short price in the Fountain of Youth Stakes—probably 2-5 or 1-2—so if you think he looks unbeatable, but still want to bet the race, the key will be figuring out which horses complete the exacta and trifecta.
MOHAYMEN

The horse I like best for second place is Zulu (#2), an unbeaten colt trained by Todd Pletcher, the leading trainer at the current Gulfstream meet. In his first start, Zulu won a six-furlong allowance race on Dec. 5 at Gulfstream by two lengths in gate-to-wire fashion, then stretched his speed to seven furlongs and showed a new dimension tracking the pace before winning a Jan. 15 allowance race by 7 ¼ lengths. He looked effortless in the latter race, winning easily in respectable time, and being a son of Bernardini out of a mare by Summer Squall, he should be able to stretch his speed to 8.5 furlongs. If any colt is going to challenge Mohaymen, I think Zulu is the one.
Awesome Speed (#4) also deserves a lot of respect after winning his last three starts, including the eight-furlong Mucho Macho Man Stakes on Jan. 30. In the latter race, he overcame a troubled start to prevail by 1 ¼ lengths, but he didn’t beat the toughest field, and my impression of his performance was that extra distance might not be his strong suit. He’s a definite contender for the exotics, but I think Zulu can beat him to the wire.
I’m also intrigued by Fellowship (#1), who finished a respectable third to Mohaymen in the Holy Bull while trying to close into a slow pace. If Zulu and Awesome Banner hook up in a battle for the lead, Fellowship could close late to pick up the pieces.
Because Mohaymen will be such a heavy favorite, it will be difficult to profit by simultaneously playing him to win and trying to cover in case he loses, so we’ll approach the race from two different perspectives:
Wagering Strategy A: If You Think Mohaymen Will Win $10 exacta: 6 with 2 ($10) $5 trifecta: 6 with 2 with 1,4 ($10)
Wagering Strategy B: If You Think Mohaymen Will Lose $6 exacta: 2 with 6 ($6) $4 trifecta: 2 with 6 with 1,4 ($8) $3 exacta 2 with 1,4 ($6)
Good luck, and enjoy the race!
$400,000 Xpresbet.com Fountain of Youth Stakes
Saturday, Feb. 27, Gulfstream Park, 5:30 p.m. ET
1 1/16 miles, 3-year-olds, dirt

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner

Odds

1

Fellowship

Jose Lezcano

Stanley Gold

Jacks or Better Farm

TBD

2

Zulu

John Velazquez

Todd Pletcher

Stonestreet Stables, Michael Tabor, Susan Magnier and Derrick Smith

TBD

3

Golden Ray

Miguel Angel Vasquez

Juan Andres Rodriguez

Golden Legacy Stable

TBD

4

Awesome Speed

Irad Ortiz Jr

Alan Goldberg

Colts Neck Stables

TBD

5

Awesome Banner

Jose Caraballo

Stanley Gold

Jacks or Better Farm

TBD

6

Mohaymen

Junior Alvarado

Kiaran McLaughlin

 Shadwell Stable

TBD