Hot List Graded Stakes Review: Kentucky Derby and Oaks
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Favored California Chrome wins the 2014 Kentucky Derby. (Photos by Eclipse Sportswire)
The $2 million Grade 1 Kentucky Derby
May 3, Churchill Downs
By Bill Cloutier
Although the fastest two minutes in sports actually lasted a relatively pedestrian 2:03.66, it certainly won’t dampen the enthusiasm surrounding the future of California Chrome in his quest to become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978.
California Chrome dominated the 140th running of the Kentucky Derby Saturday at Churchill Downs in front of the second largest crowd in the race’s history. The Cal-bred favorite, ridden by Victor Espinoza, posted a comfortable 1 3/4-length win over late-running longshot Commanding Curve. Danza finished third.
California Chrome paid $7 to his backers winning for the fifth straight time and earning Art Sherman, the 77-year-old trainer, his first Derby win. Sherman likens his chestnut-colored colt to another Cal-bred named Swaps, who won the Run for the Roses in 1955. California Chrome’s connections turned down an offer of $6 million for 51% of the colt after he won the Santa Anita Derby.
California Chrome broke quickly but Espinoza took back and allowed Uncle Sigh and Chitu to set moderate fractions. As the field entered the final turn, California Chrome was three-wide in a group of horses in the lead pack that included Samraat, Uncle Sigh and Chitu but it was California Chrome who responded sharply when asked and put that group away with ease.
California Chrome earned a Hot List grade of “A” for his performance and should be a heavy favorite if things go smoothly heading into the Preakness on May 17. A field of 19 went to the post after Hoppertunity was scratched on Thursday and Pablo Del Monte, who was on the also eligible list, declined to run.
Candy Boy earned a grade of “D” taking a peculiar large hit at the windows. The Gary Stevens mount went down from 16-1 to 9-1 in the late stages of wagering, an incredible drop considering the vast amount of money in the win pool. Hot List handicappers rarely see such a drop in odds at Belmont Park on a Wednesday, thus for it happen in the Kentucky Derby is astonishing.
Candy Boy also encountered quite a bit of trouble clipping heels with another horse and had to check to the outside and finished 13th. Stevens said it was “a horrible trip” and he was lucky his horse didn’t fall.
The solid late run by Commanding Curve will certainly pique some interest if he enters the Belmont Stakes with its grueling distance and Wicked Strong earned a Hot List grade of “B” encountering traffic and finishing fourth.
Kentucky Derby Late Wagering Report
Horse
Odds 3 min. to post
Final Odds
1. Vicar's in Trouble
19-to-1
20-to-1
2. Harry's Holiday
41-to-1
44-to-1
3. Uncle Sigh
28-to-1
30-to-1
4. Danza
8-to-1
8-to-1
5. California Chrome
2-to-1
5-to-2
6. Samraat
15-to-1
16-to-1
7. We Miss Artie
25-to-1
27-to-1
8. General a Rod
29-to-1
30-to-1
9. Vinceremos
47-to-1
46-to-1
10. Wildcat Red
17-to-1
18-to-1
11. Hoppertunity
scratched
12. Dance With Fate
15-to-1
16-to-1
13. Chitu
25-to-1
25-to-1
14. Medal Count
24-to-1
26-to-1
15. Tapiture
35-to-1
35-to-1
16. Intense Holiday
13-to-1
14-to-1
17. Commanding Curve
35-to-1
37-to-1
18. Candy Boy
16-to-1
9-to-1
19. Ride On Curlin
16-to-1
17-to-1
20. Wicked Strong
6-to-1
6-to-1
The $1 million Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks
May 2, Churchill Downs
As it turns out the only suspense surrounding Friday's Kentucky Oaks was whether favorite Untapable would go off less than even money. The race itself was a yawner.
Now the real suspense begins.
Untapable, who many pundits believe would have been a major threat against the best 3-year-olds in Saturday's Kentucky Derby, breezed to an easy 4 1/2-length win paying exactly $4 for her backers in Friday's Kentucky Oaks. The Steve Asmussen charge sat off a relatively soft pace in the middle of the 12-horse field before making her move around the final turn to win for the fifth time in seven career starts.
UNTAPABLE CAPTURES THE KENTUCKY OAKS
Jockey Rosie Napravnik, who has now won the Oaks two of the last three years, was basically a passenger most of the race, swinging her talented mount to the outside to match strides with Sugar Shock and My Miss Sophia before pulling away from the pair with little urging down the stretch. My Miss Sophia finished second, six lengths ahead of Unbridled Forever who rounded out the trifecta.
Whether Untapable could have challenged California Chrome and the rest of the boys in the Derby is still uncertain but there surely don’t seem to be any fillies in her class. The rout in the Oaks was Untapable's third straight win with the winning margins totaling a whopping 21 3/4 lengths.
And here's where it gets interesting. There are surely comparisons to be made between Untapable and Rachel Alexandra, who won the Oaks in 2009. Both entered the race in top form, won by daylight and were candidates for the Derby. But, after Rachel Alexandra won the Kentucky Oaks by 20-1/4 lengths she then went on to enter -- and win – the Preakness Stakes. On Derby day, Asmussen said it was unlikely that Untapable would run in the Preakness and he was pinning his Triple Crown hopes on Tapiture, but the colt finished a dismal 15th. That could renew some interest in a trek to Pimlico.
Untapable earned another Hot List grade of "A" for her monstrous effort while runner-up My Miss Sophia earned a "B." The odds of all the runners took a mild late reduction when longshot Empress of Midway flipped in the starting gate and had to be scratched. The filly was no worse for the wear and despite the late scratch no runner jumped enough or took enough late money to earn a Hot List odds grade.
Kentucky Oaks Late Wagering Report
Horse
Odds 3 min. to post
Final Odds
1. Please Explain
49-to-1
52-to-1
2. Ria Antonia
9-to-1
10-to-1
3. Sugar Shock
9-to-1
11-to-1
4. Rosalind
9-to-1
8-to-1
5. Thank You Marylou
19-to-1
17-to-1
6. Kiss Moon
40-to-1
44-to-1
7. Fashion Plate
12-to-1
12-to-1
8. Aurelia's Belle
40-to-1
42-to-1
9. Unbridled Forever
14-to-1
13-to-1
10. Empress of Midway
52-to-1
Late Scratch
11. My Miss Sophia
5-to-1
5-to-1
12. Got Lucky
26-to-1
26-to-1
13. Untapable
Even
Even
The Hot List, founded by turf writer/handicapper Bob Ehalt in 2011, blends a detailed analysis of a race with late wagering trends to pick out the horses with the best chance of running a winning race in their next start. Hot List horses are rated in four lettered categories:
A: A preferred horse to watch off his effort in the race B: A secondary horse to watch off his effort in the race *C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final minutes of wagering and finished 1st through 3rd *D: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final minutes of wagering and finished 4th or worse * - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
For questions on the Hot List, email: nyhotlist@gmail.com