Tip of the Week: Going Back to the Future

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
If you were one of those handicappers who wagered on McFly in the seventh race at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 20, there was rationale for doing it that extended beyond being a fan of “Back to the Future” – be it version I, II or III.
The 3-year-old gelding was listed at 8-1 in the morning line for the $35,000 maiden claimer at 7 ½ furlongs on the turf, yet he certainly deserved a closer look than that.
He was coming off a 10-length loss in a $25,000 maiden claimer on Jan. 3 at Gulfstream, which probably had some of his backers fleeing as if they had just spotted an irate Biff Tannen charging at them.
But the key element here was that McFly was entered in a race not originally scheduled for turf for the first time.
That point was as important in explaining McFly’s performance in the Jan. 3 race as it was for Marty to hit 88 mph in Doc Brown’s DeLorean.
You see, even though McFly ran second in a $35,000 maiden claimer on Dec. 6 on a fast main track in his start before that, that race was originally scheduled for turf. Therefore he was facing horses much like himself; runners who would have preferred to race on turf.
Though the claiming tag was higher in the $35,000 maiden race, McFly was probably facing better competition in the $25,000 claimer since he was tackling horses with a preference for running on dirt.
So as much as it appeared McFly had taken a backward step in the Jan. 3 race, by going back in time and closely reviewing his last few races, a different screenplay arose. A reasonable explanation was that he simply ran into tougher competition and was not as fond of the main track as the Dec. 6 race indicated.
Powered by a belief that McFly was not skateboarding into a poor form cycle, he looked far more competitive in the Feb. 20 race. After all, in his last turf race he had finished third in a $50,000 maiden claimer and before that was fourth against better horses in a maiden special weight race.
Now he was running for an a career-low claiming price of $25,000 and had the added advantage of drawing the ground-saving rail position in a race with a short run to the first turn.
Handicappers pretty much agreed with the morning line, sending McFly off at 7-1, yet they clearly could not see into the future.
Benefiting from his inside post, McFly scooted to the lead at the break and never looked back, registering a 2 ¼-length victory and paying $16.40 to win.
Best of all, unlike Biff with that 2015 sports almanac, you didn’t need Equibase charts from the future to place a winning wager.
THE LESSON: For turf horses, there’s a big difference between running against fellow turfers in a race switched to the main track and a race originally scheduled for the dirt filled with horses who prefer that surface.