Betting Against Sunny Ridge in the Gotham Stakes

Undefeated Shagaf could upset favored Sunny Ridge in Saturday's Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct. (Photo by Lauren King/Coglianese Photo)
Going over the field for the $400,000 Gotham Stakes (Grade 3) at Aqueduct, it’s easy to make a case supporting every horse in the race, which says a lot about the talent and depth of the eight-horse field!
Because the Gotham has drawn such a strong field, it should be a great betting race, particularly if you think that Sunny Ridge (#7) can be beaten. Trained by Jason Servis, Sunny Ridge has been remarkably consistent through the first six starts of his career, winning or placing in five of them, and last time out, he won the Withers Stakes (Grade 3) at Aqueduct by three-quarters of a length. Having a win over the track is significant, but it’s also worth noting that Sunny Ridge got a great trip, tracking slow fractions while staying out of traffic before taking command in the final furlong. Additionally, he will have to carry 123 pounds in the Gotham, seven pounds more than the his rivals. That is a fairly significant disadvantage, and while Sunny Ridge shouldn’t be counted out of the mix entirely, I do think that he can be beaten for first place.
The most logical alternative to Sunny Ridge is Shagaf (#2), and I think he’s the most likely winner of this race. Trained by Chad Brown, Shagaf won his debut at Aqueduct last year in impressive fashion, settling in third before taking command to win a one-mile maiden special weight by six lengths. Two months later, on Jan. 29 at Gulfstream Park, he won a one-mile allowance race in similar fashion, staying close to the pace in third while racing wide and opening up a four-length lead in the homestretch before cruising home in front by two lengths. If not for the fact that he seemed to idle once he had the lead, I think Shagaf could have won by a lot more, and with that race under his belt, I think he’ll be tough to beat this Saturday.
One longshot that I like a lot is Adventist, who finished third to Sunny Ridge in the Withers. In that race, Adventist broke slowly and raced wide throughout, then bumped repeatedly with Flexibility while trying to rally in the homestretch. Despite his troubles, and despite the fact that he was facing a major challenge trying to rally into a slow pace, Adventist finished well to miss by less than two lengths. It was a great effort for only his second race, and his first around two turns, and I think we haven’t seen the best Adventist has to offer yet.
CONQUEST BIG E

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
Conquest Big E (#6), fourth in the Holy Bull Stakes (Grade 2) despite getting overheated during the race and emerging with a slight illness, should appreciate the cooler weather in New York and rebound with a better effort in the Gotham. Todd Pletcher’s Rally Cry (#8) is another that should run an improved race, as he was forced to check his momentum dramatically on the turn when racing against Shagaf in the January allowance race at Gulfstream. Despite the trouble—he lost about four lengths of ground—Rally Cry re-rallied to finish third, and certainly could have finished closer to Shagaf with a trouble-free trip. Drawing post eight should help him stay out of trouble in the Gotham, and he shouldn’t be overlooked.
Wagering Strategy A: Exactas $4 exacta: 2,3 with 2,3 ($8) $3 exacta: 2,3 with 6,7 ($12) $2 exacta: 2,3 with 8 ($4)
Wagering Strategy B: Trifectas $2 trifecta 2,3 with 2,3 with 6,7,8 ($12) $0.50 trifecta 2,3 with 2,3 with 1,4,5 ($3) $0.50 trifecta 2,3 with 6,7,8 with 2,3,6,7,8 ($9)
Good luck, and enjoy the race!
$400,000 Gotham StakesSaturday, Aqueduct, Race 9, 4:50 p.m. ET1 1/16 miles, dirt, 3-year-olds

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner

Odds

1

Laoban

Aaron Gryder

Eric Guillot

McCormick Racing and Southern Equine Stable

15-1

2

Shagaf

Irad Ortiz Jr.

Chad Brown

Shadwell Stable

3-1

3

Adventist

Kendrick Carmouche

Leah Gyarmati

Treadway Racing Stable

4-1

4

Vincento

Angel Arroyo

Rudy Rodriguez

Vincent S. Scuderi

20-1

5

Mo Power

John Velazquez

Todd Pletcher

Repole Stable

6-1

6

Conquest Big E

Jose Ortiz

Mark Casse

Conquest Stables

6-1

7

Sunny Ridge

Manny Franco

Jason Servis

Dennis A. Drazin

7-2

8

Rally Cry

Junior Alvarado

Todd Pletcher

Paul P. Pompa Jr.

5-1