Los Ponies Longshots for March 5-6
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Welcome to Los Ponies Longshots! Each week, America’s Best Racing’s Southern California correspondent Jose Contreras – Los Ponies to those who follow him on Twitter – will provide two or three longshots at 8-to-1 odds or better on the morning line that he identifies as strong value bets. Contreras also will map out a betting strategy for how to play his selections and keep track of his return on investment (ROI).
Stop back each week if you love a longshot!
Saturday, Race 7, Santa Anita Park, 6:48 p.m. ET
#1 Seve’s Road (10-1): He is coming off a long layoff since August of last year when he was last seen finishing seventh in a field of 11 at Del Mar. That effort was his worst outing on the turf, and I imagine there was a legitimate excuse for that and that’s why they gave him a break. I like his workouts and also like that Mike Smith is taking the call. A repeat effort of his third-place finish in the Singletary Stakes last June here at Santa Anita will put him in the mix.
Strategy on $10 Budget
$1 exacta: 1 with 3,4,6,7,11 ($5)
$1 exacta: 3,4,6,7,11 with 1 ($5)
Strategy on $25 Budget
$10 win-place on Seve’s Road ($20)
$1 exacta: 1 with 3,4,6,7,11 ($5)
Strategy on $50 Budget
$1 trifecta: 1 with 3,4,6,7,11 with 3,4,6,7,11 ($20)
$1 trifecta: 3,4,6,7,11 with 1 with 3,4,6,7,11 ($20)
$10 win on Seve’s Road ($10)
Sunday, Race 6, Santa Anita Park, 6 p.m. ET
#2 One More Round (12-1): I bet him last time and he put on a good effort to finish fourth behind Ziconic. He set a strong pace and led into the stretch before getting passed late. That was only his second career start, and I think he will like the stretch out to a mile. He appears to be the main speed in this race and could take control of the race early on heading into the first turn.
Strategy on $10 Budget
$1 exacta: 2 with 3,5,6,7,9 ($5)
$1 exacta: 3,5,6,7,9 with 2 ($5)
Strategy on $25 Budget
$10 win-place on One More Round ($20)
$1 exacta: 2 with 3,5,6,7,9 ($5)
Strategy on $50 Budget
$1 trifecta: 2 with 3,5,6,7,9 with 3,5,6,7,9 ($20)
$1 trifecta: 3,5,6,7,9 with 2 with 3,5,6,7,9 ($20)
$10 win on One More Round ($10)
ROI Year to date: $1445 wagered/$90 returned