Star Hill Fit for Tampa Bay Derby Upset

The improving Star Hill could spring an upset in Saturday's Tampa Bay Derby. (Photo by Lauren Hill/Coglianese Photo)
The 36th running of the Grade 2, $350,000 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs features a pair of horses highly regarded last year making their sophomore debuts in Brody's Cause and Riker, as well as the winner of the local prep race last month, Destin. Seven others may also have a shot to earn 50 points on the Road to the Derby that practically guarantees a spot in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May.
Brody's Cause won the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity last fall before rallying from 14th to third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, while Riker won the Grade 3 Grey Stakes then faded to sixth after setting the early pace in the Juvenile. However, it may be a tough question to ask either of them to be up to the task to win at this mile and one-sixteenth distance following 4 ½ months off while most of the others have run in the past month.
Leading the group that ran recently is Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes winner Destin, with Davis runner-up Rafting and third place finisher Morning Fire trying to turn the tables. Awesome Banner won the Grade 2 Swale Stakes, a sprint, then faded badly in the two-turn Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes following that but will take another crack in a two-turn race. Swale runner-up Economic Model is making only the third start of his career and could improve markedly, while Outwork also stretches out to two turns and attempts to add to his perfect two-for-two record to date. Star Hill won by nearly eight lengths in his fourth career start and must be respected. Tale of S'avall hasn't been seen since a fifth-place finish last October and may need a race.
DESTIN

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
Star Hill is the kind of improving three year old I like to take a shot with in some of the Kentucky Derby prep races like the Tampa Bay Derby. Following two mediocre races as a 2-year-old, Star Hill took four months off to mature then returned to finish third in mid-January. Improving markedly in his second start off a layoff on February 13, Star Hill earned a career-best 105 Equibase Speed Figure, a big figure for a maiden race and just behind the 110 figure Destin earned winning the Sam F. Davis. With logical improvement in his third start following the layoff and bred to improve around two-turns, Star Hill could post the upset win in this year's Tampa Bay Derby.
Rafting was returning from nearly three months off in the Sam F. Davis, in which he rallied from fifth early into second and a half-length from the leader with an eighth of a mile to go before the time off caught up with him and he ran evenly for the rest of the race. Davis winner Destin was making his third start of the year so likely had a physical edge on Rafting, but with Rafting making his second start off the layoff in the Tampa Bay Derby he could leap frog the horse that beat him last month to improve off his career-best 107 speed figure to win.
Destin also ran the best race of his career to date in the Sam F. Davis, with a 110 figure that is tops in the field. As a son of Giant's Causeway, Destin should have no issue as the distances increase towards the goal of the Kentucky Derby in two months, and he would be no surprise if he won a graded stakes for the second time in a row.
Economic Model is an interesting horse I would definitely consider a contender as well. Although his two efforts to date yielded significantly lower figures (88 and 92) than the three main contenders, he ran on nicely for second in the Swale at the end of January like a horse that will definitely appreciate this longer distance. Not only that but trainer Chad Brown has won at an exceptional 33 percent rate when moving his horses from a sprint to a route in the past 12 months. Additionally, Economic Model is only making the third start of his career so there is a lot of room for improvement physically and mentally.
The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Awesome Banner (102), Brody's Cause (97), Morning Fire (106), Outwork (90), Riker (96) and Tale of S'avall (94).
My selections:Star Hill RaftingDestin Also consider Economic Model as a contender
$350,000 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby
Saturday, Race 11, Tampa Bay Downs, 5:24 p.m. ET
1 1/16 miles, 3-year-olds, dirt

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner

Odds

1

Morning Fire

Daniel Centeno

Keith Nations

Mercedes Stables

TBD

2

Rafting

Edgar Prado

Graham Motion

Wertheimer and Frere

TBD

3

Outwork

John Velazquez

Todd Pletcher

Repole Stable

TBD

4

Economic Model

Irad Ortiz Jr.

Chad Brown

Klaravich Stables and William Lawrence

TBD

5

Star Hill

Julien Leparoux

George Arnold II

Calumet Farm

TBD

6

Riker

Florent Geroux

Mark Casse

Team Valor, Gary Barber and Tucci Stables

TBD

7

Destin

Javier Castellano

Todd Pletcher

Twin Creeks Racing Stables

TBD

8

Brody's Cause

Corey Lanerie

Dale Romans

Albaugh Family Stable

TBD

9

Tale of S'avall

Joe Bravo

Barclay Tagg

Charles Fipke

TBD

10

Awesome Banner

Antonio Gallardo

Stanley Gold

Jacks or Better Farm

TBD