Dan’s Double: Weekend Winners for March 12-13
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When it comes to making money when handicapping races and betting on horse racing, it’s all about picking winners. Dan Tordjman, America’s Best Racing’s New York correspondent, is one of the brightest young minds in the game.
Each week, Tordjman – DanonymousMan to those who follow him on Twitter – will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Tordjman will keep track of his return on investment (ROI) throughout the year and, as a bonus, he will also provide picks for a selection of the key races on the Triple Crown trail and the road to the Breeders’ Cup.
Come back every week and be sure to follow Tordjman on Twitter.
Saturday, March 12, Race 6, Laurel Park
#6 Abiding Star (15-1): In a stakes field of six horses, we’re going with the longest shot in the race. The reason I like Abiding Star is simple: he’s fast. The question is whether he can sustain his speed for a mile and a sixteenth. His worst career race was going two turns at Laurel in December - and for that reason alone, many will write him off. However, if you watch the race, he endured steady pressure to his outside throughout the race from the horse who eventually won. When it was clear he was slowing down, he was geared down and his final loss margin of 19 lengths looks a lot worse than it really was. Despite this being a stakes race, he isn’t facing any world beaters and he should be able to establish a comfortable lead up front. Jevian Toledo, one of the leading local riders, takes the mount and he’s a very good judge of pace. We’re looking for this horse to steal this race at a nice price.
Strategy on $10 Budget
$2 win and place on #6 Abiding Star ($4)
$1 exacta box 2,5,6 ($6)
Strategy on $25 Budget
$1 trifecta 5,6 with 5,6 with all ($8)
$1 trifecta 2,6 with 2,5,6 with all ($16)
Strategy on $50 Budget
$5 exacta box 5,6 ($10)
$1 exacta box 2,5,6 ($6)
$1 trifecta 5,6 with 1,2,5,6 with 1,2,5,6 ($12)
$10 to win, $6 to place and show on #6 Abiding Star ($22)
BONUS PLAY — STAKES RACE OF THE WEEKEND
Saturday, March 12, Race 11, Tampa Bay Downs — Tampa Bay Derby
#3 Outwork (12-1): I have a hard time believing you’ll get this horse at odds that are anywhere near the 12-1 listed on the morning line but if we could even get half of that price, it would be worth a play. This is another young horse by red hot sire Uncle Mo. Outwork has won his first two career races with ease. He steps up in class here and should face a certain amount of pace pressure. However, he might very well be the fastest of the lot and clear early from the three post. What I consider highly telling here is that Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez opted to ride this horse over Destin, with whom he won the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes last month. The horse’s pedigree says he should be able to run all day. Playing this one with confidence.
Strategy on $10 Budget
$10 to win on #3 Outwork ($10)
Strategy on $25 Budget
$5 to win and place on #3 Outwork ($10)
$1 exacta box 2,3,4,8 ($12)
Strategy on $50 Budget
$1 exacta box 2,3,8 ($6)
$1 trifecta 3,8 with 2,3,4,7,8 with 2,3,4,7,8 ($24)
$10 to win and place on #3 Outwork ($20)
Sunday, March 13, Race 11, Gulfstream Park
#8 Itwontgobad (Odds TBD): This horse hasn’t been on the turf since last September, which also happens to be the last time she won a race. Granted, that race was going 7 furlongs over a wet course at Woodbine and this will be a mile race over what will likely be a firm turf at Gulfstream. Still, her Beyers over the turf put her right in the thick of things in this field. Her trainer has had a solid meet and jockey Tyler Gaffalione stays aboard after finishing third with her last out in a restricted stakes race on the dirt. She should be better second out and she will likely offer decent value, as well.
Strategy on $10 Budget
$5 win and place on #8 Itwontgobad ($10)
Strategy on $25 Budget
$1 exacta key box 8 with all ($14)
$1 trifecta key 8 over 1,2,6 ($6)
$5 to win on #8 Itwontgobad ($5)
Strategy on $50 Budget
$1 exacta box 1,2,6,8 ($12)
$1 trifecta 2,8 with 1,2,3,6,8 with 1,2,3,6,8 ($24)
$4 win, place and show on #8 Itwontgobad ($12)
ROI Year to date: $1,334.60 wagered/$585.80 returned