Los Ponies Longshots for March 12-13
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Welcome to Los Ponies Longshots! Each week, America’s Best Racing’s Southern California correspondent Jose Contreras – Los Ponies to those who follow him on Twitter – will provide two or three longshots at 8-to-1 odds or better on the morning line that he identifies as strong value bets. Contreras also will map out a betting strategy for how to play his selections and keep track of his return on investment (ROI).
Stop back each week if you love a longshot!
Saturday, Race 8, Santa Anita Park, 6:36 p.m. ET
#10 Agronomy (8-1): He was bet down to favoritism in his career debut back in September when he was racing on the downhill turf course, but he only managed to finish sixth of 10 after flashing early speed. He then tried the dirt and didn’t show much improvement. Agronomy returned in January when going a mile but he didn’t seem to handle the good turf conditions that day. He’s been gelded since his last race and shows a good set of workouts for this race. He was purchased for $560,000, and I think we still haven’t seen the best of him. I hope he gets a firm turf course for Saturday’s race.
Strategy on $10 Budget
$1 exacta: 10 with 4,7,9,11,12 ($5)
$1 exacta: 4,7,9,11,12 with 1 ($5)
Strategy on $25 Budget
$10 win-place on Agronomy ($20)
$1 exacta: 10 with 4,7,9,11,12 ($5)
Strategy on $50 Budget
$1 trifecta: 10 with 4,7,9,11,12 with 4,7,9,11,12 ($20)
$1 trifecta: 4,7,9,11,12 with 10 with 4,7,9,11,12 ($20)
$10 win on Agronomy ($10)
Sunday, Race 6, Santa Anita Park, 6 p.m. ET
#5 Oil (8-1): He’s been the betting favorite in nine of his last 11 starts, and the majority of those races have been against tougher fields. Jockey Victor Espinoza was aboard for this gelding’s maiden win and his second-place finish against starter allowance foes. I like his early speed and I think the class drop will help him in this spot.
Strategy on $10 Budget
$1 exacta: 5 with 1,2,3,7,8 ($5)
$1 exacta: 1,2,3,7,8 with 5 ($5)
Strategy on $25 Budget
$10 win-place on Oil ($20)
$1 exacta: 5 with 1,2,3,7,8 ($5)
Strategy on $50 Budget
$1 trifecta: 5 with 1,2,3,7,8 with 1,2,3,7,8 ($20)
$1 trifecta: 1,2,3,7,8 with 5 with 1,2,3,7,8 ($20)
$10 win on Oil ($10)
ROI Year to date: $1,615 wagered/$212.10 returned