Preakness Stats: Triple Crown Implications
Image:
Description:
The field for Preakness 137 enters the first turn. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
What does it take to win a Triple Crown, statistically speaking? Field size is limited for the Preakness, so post position isn’t necessarily a make-or-break factor in the second leg like it is in the Kentucky Derby. Below is a closer look at field size, post position and other Preakness stats to consider when looking at California Chrome’s chances to win the Preakness and continue on for a Triple Crown bid in the Belmont Stakes.
Currently, 14 horses is the maximum allowed to start in Pimlico's Preakness Stakes, though that hasn’t always been the case—15 ran in the 1924 edition and a record 18 horses competed in 1928. The 1918 Preakness drew a whopping 26 entries, leading officials to split the race into two divisions. But historically smaller fields are more common.
The Preakness is unique because one lucky 3-year-old is bidding to continue his quest for the Triple Crown while his opponents want to play spoiler. Very small fields have sometimes lined up to compete against a convincing Derby winner—just three horses challenged both Count Fleet (1943) and Citation (1948) when they captured the Preakness en route to respective Triple Crown titles. In 1979 Spectacular Bid, called “the greatest horse to ever look through a bridle” by his trainer, Grover G. "Bud" Delp, faced only four in his Preakness romp as the 1-to-10 favorite before coming up short in the Belmont.
In recent years the field has been at or near capacity, though only eight or nine faced heavy favorites Orb (2013), Street Sense (2007), Barbaro (2006) and Smarty Jones (2004). This year nine other sophomores are challenging Derby winner California Chrome on Saturday, with several sitting out the Preakness in favor of the June 7 Belmont.
When it comes to post position, gate 6 has produced 16 Preakness winners from 103 starters, meaning that a remarkable 15.5-percent of horses breaking from that gate have gone on to win the race. Most of the other top-producing post positions are also near the middle of the gate, and no horse has won from posts 1, 2 or 3 in 20 years. The outside isn’t favorable either as Rachel Alexandra is the only winner to break from either the 13 or 14 spot. Check out the table below for more post position stats.
Post Position
2014 Entrant
Most Recent Winner
Number of Starts
Number of Wins
Win Percent
Last Year’s Result
1
Dynamic Impact
Tabasco Cat (1994)
106
9
8.5%
Orb, 4th place
2
General a Rod
Snow Chief (1986)
106
11
10.4%
Goldencents, 5th place
3
California Chrome
Prairie Bayou (1993)
106
11
10.4%
Titletown Five, 9th place
4
Ring Weekend
Curlin (2007)
106
13
12.3%
Departing, 6th place
5
Bayern
Shackleford (2011)
104
11
10.6%
Mylute, 3rd place
6
Ria Antonia
Oxbow (2013)
103
16
15.5%
Oxbow, 1st place
7
Kid Cruz
Lookin At Lucky (2010)
93
13
14%
Will Take Charge, 7th place
8
Social Inclusion
Bernardini (2006)
83
10
12%
Govenor Charlie, 8th place
9
Pablo Del Monte
I’ll Have Another (2012)
71
4
5.6%
Itsmyluckyday, 2nd place
10
Ride On Curlin
Real Quiet (1998)
53
2
3.8%
N/A
California Chrome’s final time in the Kentucky Derby, a relatively slow 2:03.66, caused many to harbor doubts about his potential. Should Chrome win the Preakness and his time again not impress, have no fear—Triple Crown winner Citation holds the record for the slowest winning Preakness time at the race’s current 1 3/16-mile distance, stopping the clock in 2:02 2/5 on a heavy track. Fellow Triple Crown champs Assault and Gallant Fox competed on a fast track, and their times rank as the fifth- and sixth-slowest Preaknesses in 90 runnings at the distance.
A Triple Crown winner also holds the record for the fastest Preakness, as well as the fastest Kentucky Derby and Belmont: Secretariat. A snafu with the electric timer led to the official Pimlico hand-clocked time of 1:54 2/5 being assigned to Secretariat's Preakness win, but after a 2012 hearing, the official time for Secretariat’s Preakness was lowered to the current record of 1:53. The two most recent Triple Crown winners, Affirmed and Seattle Slew, ran the 12th- and 13th-fastest Preaknesses, respectively.
A pair of almost-Triple Crown winners rank near the top of the win margin list. In 2003 Funny Cide followed up his Derby win with an impressive 9 ¾-length Preakness victory to rank just behind inaugural Preakness champ Survivor's 10-length triumph. The next year Kentucky Derby winner Smarty Jones romped to win by a record 11 ½ lengths, bumping Funny Cide to the number three spot. Maybe these two used too much gas in recording those big wins - they both tired in the late stages of the 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes to finish third (Funny Cide) and second (Smarty Jones), respectively. Triple Crown winners have won the race by large margins but Preakness win margin has decreased with each Triple Crown winner since 1948.
Many horses have won the Preakness by the slimmest of margins, a nose. Still others have won by a head, but War Admiral, Assault and Affirmed are the only Triple Crown champions to capture the second jewel by a neck or less.
So what kind of a Preakness win sets California Chrome up for a Triple Crown? Looking at the stats, time doesn’t really matter. A comfortable win margin should tee up a big Belmont effort as long as he proves to have the talent to succeed over a mile and a half at Big Sandy.