Making Money Betting Collected in Sunland's Festival Stakes
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Collected, above winning the Sham Stakes, looks tough to beat in the Sunland Park Festival of Racing Stakes on Sunday. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
Although the March 20 Sunland Park Festival of Racing Stakes won’t offer Kentucky Derby qualification points, the 1 1/8-mile race for 3-year-olds nevertheless drew a solid field of 12 promising runners who could potentially have an impact on the Triple Crown races.
With the Festival of Racing Stakes falling seven weeks before the Kentucky Derby, the winner of this race could still run once more before the Kentucky Derby or Preakness Stakes, so it’s definitely a race to watch if you’re looking for up-and-coming Triple Crown contenders. The Festival of Racing Stakes replaces on the Sunland calendar the Sunland Derby, the track’s traditional Kentucky Derby prep that was canceled this year because of a virus outbreak.
Trainer Bob Baffert has won the Sunland Derby three times, including back-to-back wins in 2013 and 2014 with Govenor Charlie and Chitu, and he figures to have a very strong chance at winning this race with Collected (#8).
After finishing second to Dressed in Hermes in the Grade 3 Cecil B. DeMille Stakes at the end of 2015, Collected overcame a wide trip to win the one-mile, Grade 3 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita Park.
COLLECTED WINNING THE SHAM STAKES
Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
In his most recent start, he finished a solid fourth in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes after chasing a fast pace. Dropping down into a listed stakes race should help his chances, and it’s important to note that Collected’s recent Beyer Speed Figures—85, 81, and 83—give him a significant edge over his rivals in the Festival of Racing Stakes. He looks like a standout.
Another logical contender is Todd Pletcher’s Gettysburg (#12), who broke his maiden by 4 ½ lengths at Gulfstream Park two starts back. He’s already proven at the 1 1/8-mile distance of the Festival of Racing Stakes, but last time out Gettysburg turned in a disappointing effort when fifth in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. However, he didn’t get the best trip that day while racing inside of horses, and he was facing a very strong field that included Destin, Rafting, and Whatawonderflworld. Like Collected, Gettysburg should benefit from the drop in class, and his Beyer Speed Figures stamp him as one of the best horses in the race.
For the exotics, Found Money (#1), Walk Out (#4), and Concord Fast (#5) all warrant respect. Found Money has shown himself to be a very capable stakes performer — he ran fourth in the Sham Stakes behind Collected — but might be better at distances shorter than 1 1/8 miles. Walk Out, trained by Steve Asmussen, rallied from last to win a one-mile and 70-yard allowance race at Sam Houston Race Park by four lengths and figures to be a challenger from off the pace, while Concord Fast won the one-mile Mine That Bird Stakes at Sunland on Feb. 26, running his final quarter-mile in about :24 flat — perhaps even slightly quicker — to win decisively by four lengths. He could improve with the extra distance of the Festival of Racing Stakes and is perhaps the most intriguing candidate to upset Collected.
Wagering Strategy A: Exactas
$5 exacta: 8 with 4,5,12 ($15)
$2 exacta: 5 with 4,8,12 ($6)
Wagering Strategy B: Trifectas
$4 trifecta: 8 with 12 with 1,4,5 ($12)
$2 trifecta: 8 with 1,4,5 with 12 ($6)
$1 trifecta: 5 with 8 with 1,4,12 ($3)
Good luck, and enjoy the race!
$415,000 Sunland Park Festival of Racing StakesSunday, Sunland Park, Race 9, 7:30 p.m. ET1 1/8 miles, dirt, 3-year-olds
PP
Horse
Jockey
Trainer
Owner
Odds
1
Found Money
Mario Gutierrez
Doug O'Neill
Reddam Racing
7-2
2
Ice Box Tango
Francisco Duran
Paul Smith
Dream Walkin Farms
50-1
3
Bruntino
Alfredo Juarez, Jr
Justin Evans
Gino Roncelli
12-1
4
Walk Out
Iram V. Diego
Steve Asmussen
Calumet Farm
10-1
5
Concord Fast
Ry Eikleberry
Justin Evans
Teed Off Stable
6-1
6
Crown of Ambition
Ricardo Jaime
Carlos C. Gonzalez
Kamil Ozhan
30-1
7
Cowboy Cool
Alejandro Medellin
Greg Green
Greg Green and Darwin Green
10-1
8
Collected
Martin Garcia
Bob Baffert
Speedway Stable
5-2
9
Deputy's Echo
Santiago Reyes
J. Owen Bringhurst
Margaret V. Bloss
12-1
10
Music Giant
Enrique Gomez
Henry Dominguez
Black Gold Racing
20-1
11
Dad
Ken Tohill
Joel Marr
Michael C. Stinson
30-1
12
Gettysburg
Javier Castellano
Todd Pletcher
WinStar Farm
3-1