Madtap Could Surprise in Loaded Rebel Stakes
Image:
Description:
Madtap will pose a strong challenge for probable favorite Suddenbreakingnews in Saturday's Rebel Stakes. (All photos courtesy of Coady Photography)
The field for the 56th running of the Grade 2, $900,000 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park is led by Suddenbreakingnews, last to first winner of the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes last month over the track. Never worse than second in six career tries, the son of Mineshaft should be competitive again but there are 13 others also wanting points that will help their goal of entering the Kentucky Derby starting gate seven weeks from now.
Southwest runner-up Whitmore can improve in his third start of the year. American Dubai made the lead with an eighth of a mile to go in the Southwest and is hoping to hold on better, while Discreetness really needs a rebound off his seventh-place effort following victory in the Smarty Jones Stakes. Cupid ships in from California off a five length win for Bob Baffert, who has won the Rebel in five of the last six years, including last year with eventual Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. Creator, Madtap and Cherry Wine also exit very strong victories and could step up their game to this level. The rest of the field comes into the Rebel off multi-length defeats and need to do better.
Madtap, part of a coupled entry with Creator, may be the horse peaking at the right time in the Rebel. Madtap won his career debut last summer at a mile on turf, no easy task, before two poor efforts. Allowed a couple of months to mature both physically and mentally, Madtap returned for his 3-year-old debut in a sprint on dirt, finishing third, before an easy six-length romp two weeks ago at Oaklawn Park and at the distance of the Rebel. The win earned him a career best 104 Equibase Speed Figure, on par with the figure Whitmore earned when second in the Southwest Stakes two weeks prior to that. As a son of Tapit out of a mare by 2001 Preakness and Belmont winner Point Given, Madtap should continue to improve, meaning his last race figure and effort will not be the best he puts forth on the Road to the Kentucky Derby and making him a very tough foe in this year's Rebel Stakes.
SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS
Suddenbreakingnews has done nothing wrong in his six career starts, winning three and finishing second in the other three. Continuing to improve with every race, Suddenbreakingnews earned a career-best (and field-high) 108 figure when rallying from last of 14 to win the Southwest Stakes at this distance over the track last month. The 14 post in a field of 14 is no different, and jockey Luis Quinonez is the only jockey Suddenbreakingnews has ever known so we should expect another top effort, particularly as the horse is making his second start following two months off.
Whitmore rallied from 11th in the Southwest but was outfinished by Suddenbreakingnews in the stretch to end up second. However, Whitmore suffered from traffic trouble twice in the race whereas the winner did not, so the effort and accompanying 103 figure are very likely to be improved upon. North American leading jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. comes in to ride Whitmore for the first time, giving us more reasons to like his chances not only in the Rebel but further down on the road to the Derby.
WHITMORE
Cupid has to be mentioned as a contender as well, if for no other reason than his trainer, Bob Baffert, has won five of the last six editions of the Rebel. Cupid earned an 89 figure in his debut, a sprint, then improved to 92 when second in another sprint. Sent two turns for the first time last month in California, Cupid easily dispatched six other horses with a 100 figure. As 3-year-olds can improve by leaps and bounds from one race to the next if Cupid improves by another eight points or so he has every right to run well enough to give Baffert another victory in the Rebel Stakes.
The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is American Dubai (103), Cherry Wine (95), Creator (96), Cutacorner (103). Discreetness (105), Gray Sky (98), Ralis (106), Siding Spring (98), Spikes Shirl (89) and Z Royal (87).
Win contenders (in probability order):Madtap (coupled with Creator)SuddenbreakingnewsWhitmoreCupid
$900,000 Rebel StakesSaturday, Race 10, Oaklawn Park, 7:06 p.m. ET1 1/16 miles, 3-year-olds, dirt
#
PP
Horse
Jockey
Trainer
Owner
Odds
1
1
Creator
Ricardo Santana Jr.
Steven Asmussen
WinStar Farm
6-1
3
2
Ralis
Mario Gutierrez
Doug O'Neill
Reddam Racing
12-1
4
3
Cupid
Martin Garcia
Bob Baffert
Michael Tabor, Mrs. John Magnier and Derrick Smith
7-2
5
4
Discreetness
Jon Court
William Fires
Xpress Thoroughbreds
12-1
6
5
Siding Spring
Joe Rocco Jr.
Mark Casse
Gabe Grossberg
20-1
7
6
Spikes Shirl
Jesus Lopez Castanon
Dallas Stewart
Charles Fipke
30-1
1A
7
Madtap
Corey Nakatani
Steve Asmussen
Winchell Thoroughbreds
6-1
8
8
American Dubai
Chris Landeros
Rodney Richards
Richard Keith
12-1
2
9
Z Royal
Ramon Vazquez
D. Wayne Lukas
Zayat Stables
20-1
2X
10
Gray Sky
Florent Geroux
D. Wayne Lukas
Robert Baker and William Mack
20-1
9
11
Cutacorner
Alex Birzer
Jack Van Berg
Kay Stillman
30-1
10
12
Whitmore
Irad Ortiz Jr.
Ron Moquett
Robert LaPenta, Harry Rosenblum and Southern Springs Stables
7-2
11
13
Cherry Wine
Corey Lanerie
Dale Romans
William Pacella and Frank Jones Jr.
12-1
12
14
Suddenbreakingnews
Luis Quinonez
Donnie Von Hemel
Samuel Henderson
3-1