Derby Trail: Three Heating Up, Three Cooling Down

Danzing Candy was impressive in winning the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes on March 12 at Santa Anita Park. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
This feature provides a capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Triple Crown trail and three horses whose chances for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands are not quite as strong as they previously were. For this week's edition, the focus is the previous two weeks of Kentucky Derby prep races.
ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD
HEATING UP

1. Danzing Candy

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
Danzing Candy was very impressive in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes on March 12, setting an uncontested but brisk pace before pulling away from a challenge from third-place finisher Exaggerator en route to a two-lengths win. The San Felipe was the third straight win for Danzing Candy, who easily handled the class test in his first stakes race. Since a listless debut in November at Del Mar, Danzing Candy has won three races by a combined margin of 11 lengths and he’s improved his Equibase Speed Figure steadily from a 102 to a 106 to a 110 in the San Felipe. He’s also shown the ability to go very fast early — winning his debut at seven-eighths of a mile after leading through a half-mile in :45.60 and the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe after setting the pace through a half-mile in :46.11 — and still finishing well. He has the services of Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith and his dam (mother), Talking and Singing, is a half-sister (same dam, different sire [father]) to 2004 Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Better Talk Now, a personal favorite of mine. I’m not in love with the pedigree for 1 ¼ miles — the aforementioned Talking and Singing is by Songandaprayer, who is a better sprint than distance sire — but the talent is there, his sire Candy Ride is very capable of a home run horse and Danzing Candy figures to be formidable in the Santa Anita Derby.
2. Shagaf

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
Visually, I didn’t love Shagaf’s win in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes on March 5. In fact, it kind of felt like all four horses in contention in the stretch were running in quicksand. But with three wins in as many starts, a nice pedigree and competitive speed figures, I’ve changed my tune a bit. He’s won his three races by a combined margin of 9 ¼ lengths and the 110 Equibase Speed Figure he earned for the Gotham was both a new career top and right on par with the best 3-year-olds. He’s by 2006 Preakness Stakes winner and champion 3-year-old Bernardini out of the stakes-winning Unbridled’s Song mare Muhaawara, a half-sister (same dam, different sire) to 2010 Breeders’ Cup Marathon winner Eldaafer. Shagaf’s second dam (maternal grandmother) is four-time Grade 1 winner Habibti, by Tabasco Cat. Lightly raced Shagaf still has plenty of room to grow, but the concern for me would be is it too much too fast for this Shadwell Stable homebred.
3. Outwork

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
Destin made the first version of this blog in the “Heating Up” section and I profiled him for this week’s Making the Grade, so instead I went with Tampa Bay Derby runner-up Outwork, who finished just a length behind Destin in his stakes debut. I think Destin is the better Triple Crown candidate, but he was already high on my list, while Outwork came from nowhere and has a ton of room to grow. The Tampa Bay Derby was Outwork’s first start longer than six furlongs (three-quarters of a mile) and he still had enough fuel in the tank to battle Destin gamely when he caught him in the stretch. After winning his first two races by a combined 6 ½ lengths, the Tampa Bay Derby second was encouraging and the 98 Equibase Speed Figure marked a new career-best figure. There’s also some pedigree here to like. Outwork’s dam, Nonna Mia, by 2003 Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker, finished third in the Grade 1 Frizette Stakes in 2009 and is a close sibling to multiple graded stakes winner Cairo Prince, who is by Pioneerof the Nile, a son of Empire Maker. I’m not sure Outwork is a true Kentucky Derby horse, but I think we’ll see another big effort on the Triple Crown trail. I’d love him for the Preakness, unfortunately his trainer, Todd Pletcher, rarely targets the middle jewel of the Triple Crown. His last runner in the Preakness was Dance City in 2011.

COOLING DOWN

1. Brody’s Cause

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
Entering 2016, Brody’s Cause was my Kentucky Derby horse. I didn’t need him to win his season debut after a couple of minor setbacks earlier this season, but I did need him to show up. Instead, he turned in a listless seventh-place finish, beaten by 12 ½ lengths, in a nine-horse field. The 2015 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity winner — and Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile third-place finisher — now has a ton of ground to make up on the competition in a very short amount of time. I still think Brody’s Cause is a talented colt, but his margin for error is gone and I didn’t like what I saw in the Tampa Bay Derby. Neither did trainer Dale Romans: “I don’t have an explanation for the poor performance, but I didn't have one the first time he ran [when he finished eighth],” Romans told the Louisville Courier-Journal. “Maybe he’s a horse that needs to run.” Romans said he will target the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes on April 16 for Brody’s Cause.
2. Smokey Image

BENOIT photo
With the California-bred storyline still fresh in fans’ minds from California Chrome’s Triple Crown bid in 2014, Smokey Image looked like a fantastic candidate to follow in his hoof steps after winning six straight races, including five stakes, to start his career. That winning streak came to a screeching halt in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes on  March 12, when the step up to graded stakes company resulted in a fifth-place finish for Smokey Image, beaten by 18 ¾ lengths. A colt who had won from off the pace and when dictating the tempo, I expected Smokey Image to handle the class test. He did not. I do still think the future is bright for Smokey Image. Horses don’t reel off six straight wins without boasting serious talent, but the roadmap to the Kentucky Derby went up in smoke in the San Felipe.
3. Sunny Ridge

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
From the last crop of 1994 Horse of the Year Holy Bull, Sunny Ridge was a sentimental favorite on this year’s Triple Crown trail. His Withers Stakes win inspired confidence but he looked like he ran out of petrol in the stretch of the Gotham Stakes on March 5. Sunny Ridge faded to finish fourth without really throwing in the towel, but given trainer Jason Servis’ lack of enthusiasm for the Kentucky Derby and a disappointing Gotham performance it’s tough to keep this 3-year-old on a Derby short list. Just don’t forget about him completely.

Racing Terms
Allowance race – A race for which the racing secretary drafts certain conditions to determine weights to be carried based on the horse’s age, sex and/or past performance.
Also-eligible – A horse officially entered for a race, but not permitted to start unless the field is reduced by scratches below a specified number.
Apprentice – A rider who has not ridden a certain number of winners within a specified period of time. Also known as a “bug,” from the asterisk used to denote the weight allowance such riders receive.
Blinkers – A cup-shaped device that limits a horse’s vision. Blinkers, often used to try to improve a horse’s focus, come in a variety of sizes and shapes to allow as little or as much vision as the trainer feels is necessary.
Bullet – The fastest workout of the day at a track at a particular distance.
Claiming race – A race in which each horse entered is eligible to be purchased at a set price.
Closer – A horse that runs best in the latter part of the race, coming from off the pace.
Connections – Persons identified with a horse, such as owner, trainer, jockey and stable employees.
Disqualification – Change in order of finish by stewards for an infraction of the rules.
Dam – The mother of a horse.
Entry – Two or more horses with common ownership that are paired as a single betting unit in one race.
Front-runner – A horse whose running style is to attempt to get on or near the lead at the start of the race and to continue there as long as possible.
Furlong – An eighth of a mile.
Graded race – A non-restricted race with added money or guaranteed purse value of $100,000 or more which has been run at least twice under similar conditions and on the same surface and has been assigned graded status for the year contested by the American Graded Stakes Committee.
Handicap – This race type refers to a race where the weights are assigned by the track’s racing secretary or handicapper based upon past performances.
Length – A measurement approximating the length of a horse, used to denote distance between horses in a race.
Off track – A track that has a wet surface and isn’t labeled as “fast”.
Pacesetter – The horse that is running in front (on the lead).
Past performances – A horse’s racing record, earnings, bloodlines and other data, presented in composite form.
Prep – A workout (or race) used to prepare a horse for a future engagement.
Post Parade – Horses going from paddock to starting gate past the stands. The post parade provides spectators with a chance to get a final look at the horse before the race.
Post Position – Position of stall in starting gate from which a horse begins a race.
Rabbit – A speed horse running as an entry with another, usually a come-from-behind horse. The rabbit is expected to set a fast pace to help the chances of its stablemate.
Rank – A horse that refuses to settle under a jockey’s handling in a race, running in a headstrong manner without respect to pace.
Scratch – To be taken out of a race before it starts.
Silks – Jacket and cap worn by jockeys.
Sire – Father of a foal.
Stakes – A race for which the owner usually must pay a fee to run a horse. The fees can be for nominating, maintaining eligibility, entering and starting, to which the track adds more money to make up the total purse. Some stakes races are by invitation and require no payment or fee.