Bram’s Take: Settling for a Mr. Maybe in Rebel
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Cherry Wine, above winning at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 9, is one of many contenders for the Rebel Stakes on Saturday at Gulfstream Park with a big chance to take a major step forward on the Kentucky Derby trail. (Photo by Leslie Martin/Gulfstream Park)
Think about where our champions come from and you’ll find a bias. Some will suggest Kevin Durant has to leave Oklahoma City to win an NBA championship, when the most consistent franchise in the NBA over the last quarter century resides in the smallest of the three markets with a team in Texas: San Antonio.
The Kansas City Royals have been in the World Series two years in a row but no one would label that THE destination for championship baseball. And while Brock Osweiler’s signing in Houston should immediately catapult the Texans to contender status, the fact that Houston has never been to a Super Bowl with two NFL franchises still leaves you with the overwhelming feeling that he left great (Denver) for good (Houston).
The same can be said for horse racing, where the Kentucky Derby trail’s trek through Arkansas rarely resonates as THE prep races to watch. But in recent years, the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes has been THE breeding ground for champions. Curlin won this race. Lawyer Ron won this race. Smarty Jones won this race. And of course, the best horse in a generation did, too: American Pharoah.
Maybe that’s why 14 horses are lined up for this year’s race. It’s a huge field for a Derby prep, but considering in recent years Oaklawn Park has a track made of pixie dust, I understand why everyone wants to take a trot through that.
Here’s the field for the Rebel Stakes:
Creator: This will be a constant refrain because this field has a lot of “if he can make that jump to stakes competition, he’ll be in the mix.” I’ll call this complexity, “Mr. Maybe.” There are a lot of “Mr. Maybes” here. In his last four races, he was the betting favorite, but it was only his last one that he came through and won. So they waited patiently for a breakthrough and got it. Now he goes from $70,000 maidens to a $900,000 ticket to Churchill Downs. He defines “Mr. Maybe.”
Madtap: He looks like a classic peaked-too-soon horse. Granted, if he does what he did last time out, he’ll be right there, but the fact that his big run came after a moderate drop in class tells me even his connections don’t think this is happening.
Z Royal: Victor Espinoza tried him in a Grade 3 stakes race. Gary Stevens tried him in a higher-pursed Grade 3. Both failed miserably. So I’m going with he’s not quite ready for prime time.
Gray Sky: I don’t know why I like it so much when D. Wayne Lukas has a contender … something about his sunglasses. Anyway, this one has hit the board in five of seven races so he’ll be in my exotic bets, but he did try a stakes caliber race once and it was one of those two times he didn’t sniff the winner’s circle. So, he’s not winning here.
Ralis: I can’t believe I’m just writing this guy off but his last two races were so awful, Doug O'Neill would have to personally send me a telegram to announce that he is certain that Ralis is back in top form. Considering few of the others here have had the stakes experience that this one has, I can’t believe I’m so dismissive, but I am.
RALIS WINNING HOPEFUL STAKES
Photo by Adam Coglianese/NYRA
Cupid: Let’s see if Ole Bob Baffert still has the lucky horseshoe. Cupid has run a grand total of three times, never in a race with purse higher then $56,000. But his speed ratings have improved in each and his last race, albeit as a huge favorite, was a decisive breakout win. Hello, “Mr. Maybe.”
Discreetness: So, he was part of the one race where we can try to stack up some of the contenders, the $500,000 Southwest Stakes about a month ago at the same track. He was eight wide at one point. That’s not what the game plan was. So, can we chalk it up as just a bad day considering his previous two races were mildly surprising wins? He’s going to offer odds that make him one of my favorite “Mr. Maybes,” but he is a “Mr. Maybe” and in the final “Mr. Maybe” rankings won’t get a No. 1 seed.
DISCREETNESS WINNING SMARTY JONES STAKES
Coady Photography
Siding Spring: He tried to be the pacesetter in the Southwest Stakes and got blown away in the stretch. He has faded in his other stakes tries, so I’ve downgraded him to “Mr. Not so Much.”
Spikes Shirl: He often fades in $50,000 races, so now he is jumping up in class? This would be a stunner. No thanks.
American Dubai: Look, I know I’m stupid for saying this, but his name is too close to American Pharoah. It’s weird and confusing to the lay fan to try to explain that not all contenders have to have names that start with the word American and end with something that suggests Middle Eastern or North African heritage. So, for that reason, I’m out.
Cutacorner: When in stakes races, he is largely noncompetitive. There is a jockey change but it’s not the type of jockey change where you wonder why a Hall of Fame rider would be taking a shot on this one when the past suggests it’s a wasted effort. So, I’m staying far, far away from this one.
Whitmore: He’s a big-time closer and racing on a track where the split times don’t suggest a hot pace, I like his chances. This is his fourth different jockey in five races, which makes me wonder why if he’s that competitive do they feel the need to make consistent changes to the jock. If this race is his best run, he goes from “Mr. Maybe” to one to watch, but for now, he’s merely a “Mr. Maybe.”
Cherry Wine: Here’s another one of those can-he-make-the-jump horses who in his last two clearly showed he deserves the opportunity. He’s won his last two races by a combined margin of 15 1/4 lengths. This will only be his second race since the first of those two wins in November, so he’s rested up, too. I’m getting that funny feeling he might just be the one.
Suddenbreakingnews: Clearly, he’s the most consistent horse here. He won the Southwest Stakes handily over a handful of returnees in this one. He went seven wide in that race and flew by everyone, so he’s got the closing goods, too. He’s also 6-for-6 finishing first or second. The million-dollar question is: if he wins this one and heads to Churchill Downs, will Luis Quinonez stay on him? He’s the only jockey who has ever ridden him. Whatever, I’m not here to start controversy. He’s the overall No. 1 seed of “Mr. Maybes.”
SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS WINNING SOUTHWEST STAKES
Coady Photography
The Pick: I have to pick a “Mr. Maybe,” which ultimately means I’m not doing this with any particular level of confidence. Suddenbreakingnews hasn’t had a dud yet, so if you want to make the safest bet, that’s the way you go. Cupid has the huge upside. He hasn’t raced enough to really know if this spot is too big or just right. Cherry Wine might not be a mead. Whitmore, Creator, Discreetness, Gray Sky and a few others are one best effort away from winning here, too.
So, I’m bailing on picking a winner here. It’s time to toss a bunch of them into the hopper and try to make some real cash, which makes me “King of the Mr. Maybes.”
The Full Milty Bet — Trifecta Box: Creator, Gray Sky, Cupid, Discreetness, American Dubai, Whitmore, Cherry Wine, Suddenbreakingnews.
$900,000 Rebel StakesSaturday, Race 10, Oaklawn Park, 7:06 p.m. ET1 1/16 miles, 3-year-olds, dirt
#
PP
Horse
Jockey
Trainer
Owner
Odds
1
1
Creator
Ricardo Santana Jr.
Steven Asmussen
WinStar Farm
6-1
3
2
Ralis
Mario Gutierrez
Doug O'Neill
Reddam Racing
12-1
4
3
Cupid
Martin Garcia
Bob Baffert
Michael Tabor, Mrs. John Magnier and Derrick Smith
7-2
5
4
Discreetness
Jon Court
William Fires
Xpress Thoroughbreds
12-1
6
5
Siding Spring
Joe Rocco Jr.
Mark Casse
Gabe Grossberg
20-1
7
6
Spikes Shirl
Jesus Lopez Castanon
Dallas Stewart
Charles Fipke
30-1
1A
7
Madtap
Corey Nakatani
Steve Asmussen
Winchell Thoroughbreds
6-1
8
8
American Dubai
Chris Landeros
Rodney Richards
Richard Keith
12-1
2
9
Z Royal
Ramon Vazquez
D. Wayne Lukas
Zayat Stables
20-1
2X
10
Gray Sky
Florent Geroux
D. Wayne Lukas
Robert Baker and William Mack
20-1
9
11
Cutacorner
Alex Birzer
Jack Van Berg
Kay Stillman
30-1
10
12
Whitmore
Irad Ortiz Jr.
Ron Moquett
Robert LaPenta, Harry Rosenblum and Southern Springs Stables
7-2
11
13
Cherry Wine
Corey Lanerie
Dale Romans
William Pacella and Frank Jones Jr.
12-1
12
14
Suddenbreakingnews
Luis Quinonez
Donnie Von Hemel
Samuel Henderson
3-1