Dan’s Double: Weekend Winners for March 19-20
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When it comes to making money when handicapping races and betting on horse racing, it’s all about picking winners. Dan Tordjman, America’s Best Racing’s New York correspondent, is one of the brightest young minds in the game.
Each week, Tordjman – DanonymousMan to those who follow him on Twitter – will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Tordjman will keep track of his return on investment (ROI) throughout the year and, as a bonus, he will also provide picks for a selection of the key races on the Triple Crown trail and the road to the Breeders’ Cup.
Come back every week and be sure to follow Tordjman on Twitter.
Saturday, March 19, Race 8, Aqueduct
#2 Beyond the Green (3-1): In a field loaded with speed, I think this horse will get a dream set up from off the pace. Beyond the Ground should also be able to save ground throughout from his rail post - the only issue will be the extent of traffic he might have to weave through late, as he passes tired horses. This horse was impressive last out, beating first level allowance horses on the inner dirt at Aqueduct. He’s back on the surface here, stretching out slightly, as he takes on non-winners of two. He’s five for six in the money over the course and retains the services of Junior Alvarado, who guided him to victory last out in what was the jockey’s first time aboard. Another horse with quite a bit of back-class, and who can also close into a strong pace, is #9 Big Business. If the 8-year-old can call on his old form, he’ll be a factor late.
Strategy on $10 Budget
$5 to win #2 Beyond the Green ($5)
$2 exacta box 2,9 ($4)
Strategy on $25 Budget
$1 trifecta 2,9 with 2,9 with all ($14)
$1 exacta 2,7,9 with 2,7,5,9 ($9)
Strategy on $50 Budget
$5 exacta box 2,9 ($10)
$1 trifecta 2,9 with 2,5,7,9 with 2,3,5,7,8,9 ($24)
$10 to win and $5 to place on #2 Beyond the Green ($15)
BONUS PLAY — STAKES RACE OF THE WEEKEND
Saturday, March 19, Race 10, Oaklawn Park — The Rebel Stakes
#11 Cherry Wine (12-1): We should get a really nice price on this improving colt, who is coming off consecutive open length victories in maiden and allowance company. The competition gets stiffer here but I think Cherry Wine is coming into his own. My only concern with him is that he doesn’t have a race over the track at Oaklawn. However, his turn of foot was eye-opening at Gulfstream, where he finished off in :23.88 and :31.64, winning by 6 lengths, after sitting off a pretty slow pace. The horse to his outside, Suddenbreakingnews, also flew home last out to win the Southwest Stakes but had a much more favorable setup. That being said, Suddenbreakingnews ran down return rival Whitmore (who’d also sat off the pace) with ease. Finally, I think Madtap is a horse to keep an eye on. He looks like he’ll be fastest out of the gate and if he can open some daylight early, he could be tough to catch late.
Strategy on $10 Budget
$5 win and place on #11 Cherry Wine ($10)
Strategy on $25 Budget
$5 win and place on #11 Cherry Wine ($10)
$1 exacta box 1,4,11,12 ($12)
Strategy on $50 Budget
$1 exacta box 1,11,12 ($6)
$.50 trifecta 1,11 with 1,4,11,12 with ALL ($30)
$4 win, place and show on #11 Cherry Wine ($12)
Sunday, March 20, Race 10, Fair Grounds
#1 Lookout Mountain (30-1): This is a pure pace play. This filly comes out of a race that you can toss because it was a six furlong sprint on the dirt. Twice in the past few months they’ve tried to get her on the turf but the races have washed off. When last seen on the turf, she showed incredible gate speed from a wide post, dueled and faded. In this race, she’s clearly the fastest horse (and she’s adding blinkers, which should ensure she fires out), she has the rail and should be able to establish a loose and uncontested lead. I think she could wire this field, which isn’t really the strongest. Ultimately, she might not be good enough to hang on to win, but place and show money won’t be too bad on her.
Strategy on $10 Budget
$5 place and show #1 Lookout Mountain ($10)
Strategy on $25 Budget
$5 win, place and show on #1 Lookout Mountain ($15)
$1 exacta 1,6 with 1,4,6,8,9,11
Strategy on $50 Budget
$1 exacta box 1,6,8,9,11 ($20)
$.50 trifecta 1,6,9 with 1,6,9,11 with 1,4,6,8,9,11 ($18)
$4 win, place and show on #1 Lookout Mountain ($12)
ROI Year to date: $1,502.60 wagered/$2,017.50 returned